The downfall of the Shia regime in Iraq would be a great loss for Tehran and hurt its role as key strategic partner in the West Asian region. Iran may convince Maliki to give meaningful concessions to the Sunnis in the political process in order to make them feel integral to a new Iraq
Iran being in dilemma about what to do in Iraq and how to stop Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has generated intense debate in Tehran and the world over. Iraq is an important and strategic partner for Iran, especially after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Iran cannot leave Iraq in hazard and could not help directly due to the regional dynamics. In view of regional dynamics in West Asia and the aggravated sectarian division, it is difficult to predict Iran interfering directly, in the form of entire forces crossing the border to shore up Iraqi defences.
However, Iran’s position may change, especially when ISIS will move forward to the all-important shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani has already announced that Iran would provide all support to the Iraqi government and send its forces to protect the religious cities. There have been reports that Qassim Suleimani, commander of the Quds division of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), has been sent to Baghdad to support Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
No doubt Iran is experienced to tackle such a situation. Iranian troops know the Iraqi terrain very well. During the US occupation of Iraq, it provided training to Iraqi fighters, especially Shia militia, and got an intimate knowledge with the faultlines of the country’s politics. Iran can also help organise the Shia militias in Iraq such as Sadr’s Mahdi Army militia that has mostly been inactive in recent years. The fighters of Mahdi Army loyal to Moqtada Al Sadr paraded with weapons in the Sadr city area of north Baghdad, promising to fight a major militant offensive that has shocked the world and threatens the security and stability of Iraq.
Iran also believes that the Sunni insurgency can only be defeated if Iraq’s divided Shia militias are ready to cooperate with each other. Fortunately, Iranian-born Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most popular Shia religious leader in Iraq, has issued a fatwa appealing all Shias to unite and take up arms to fight against ISIS for the nation. This was an exceptional move. Even during the brink of sectarian civil war in the country at the time of the US occupation, Sistani had declined to issue a fatwa to advise the followers to bear arms. Sistani’s fatwa played a significant role:
ISIS looked to be on the edge of reaching Baghdad, but the fatwa appeared to stall them. Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also warned that “some regional countries unfortunately do not understand the danger of the takfiri groups, which will challenge them in future… eventually these countries, will be
forced to eradicate these extremists, with a high price.”
Some analysts, including Iranians, believe there is good opportunities for the US and Iran to collaborate in fighting ISIS. Similarly they worked together to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001. However, Iranian officials, including Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, rejected Iran-US co-operation over Iraq, saying the Western commentary “is part of a psychological war, and is totally unreal.” Shamkhani also said the US is responsible for the present crisis in the region and encouraged the creation of terrorist groups like the ISIS. Since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988 and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran’s priority has been to ensure that the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad would never again fall in the hands of Sunni (with or without Maliki at the helm).
Brief background
The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the levant (ISIl) is headed by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and backed by thousands of Islamist fighters in Syria and Iraq. The ISIS is relatively new on the scene, but has rapidly risen in the West Asian region. Even Intelligence has little knowledge about the ISIS. The ISIS is a Sunni group and adept at taking advantage of Sunni Iraqi anger against Maliki’s government. Sunnis in Iraq, including the Kurds, feel alienated and disadvantaged from the political process of Iraq by the predominantly Shia government. ISIS also gets support from other Sunni militias in Iraq as well as from rich locals and even some former supporters of Saddam Hussein. Iraqi Sunnis believe that the ISIS would provide them a better chance to manage their own affairs. The ISIS wants to establish a Sunni caliphate in the heart of West Asia. In February 2004, US ground troops arrested al-Baghdadi and put him in prison. However, in late 2004, a commission of US military experts released him from jail. Quickly afterward, he became the leader of the insurgent group in the region. He became the head of the organisation shortly before the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2010 — and well after the group had renamed itself Islamic State in Iraq and later ISIS.
Saudi concern
Regional players are further complicating the situation in Iraq. On the one hand Iran, which backs the Shia, warned military intervention. On the other, Saudi is against foreign intervention inside Iraq and threatened grave consequences. The foreign minister of Saudi Arabia, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said, “This grave situation that is storming Iraq carries with it the signs of civil war whose implications for the region we cannot fathom.”
He insisted nations racked by violence to meet the “legitimate demands of the people and to achieve national reconciliation (without) foreign interference or outside agendas.” Saudi Arabia has accused Maliki and said the present government is responsible for the crisis, citing what it called years of “sectarian and exclusionary policies” against Iraq’s Sunni minority. Saudi too said the new government should be established in Baghdad and Sunni groups should be given adequate share in the political process of the country.
America’s role
The first of up to 300 US military advisers began their mission in Baghdad to support the Iraqi army; however, the Obama Administration has already said that the US will not send ground forces to Iraq to counter ISIS. Pentagon too clarified that the American troops were not taking on a combat role. The main job of the advisers was to assess the Iraqi government forces and not to turn the tide against militants from ISIS. The US Administration too wants to push the Maliki government to ensure that the other groups have a greater say in government than they have until now.
Assumption
The downfall of the Shia regime in Iraq would be a great loss for Tehran and hurt its role as key strategic partner in the West Asian region. Iran, as the most powerful regional player in West Asia and also in Iraq, would be sensible to convince Maliki to give meaningful concessions to the Sunnis and include them in the central government’s decision-making or political process of the country in order to make them feel they are integral to a new Iraq. That would provide opportunity to Iran to not only stop ISIS but to continue its constructive position in Iraq and to give leverage for a more cooperative relationship with the US in the region. Otherwise, Iraq will remain one of the biggest challenges and security threats on Iran’s western border. For the past 10 years, Iraq has been in turmoil and there is no guarantee of the security of the people or the stability of the country — a result of the failed US policy in Iraq. The situation in Iraq again worsened after the 2011 outbreak of the Syrian Civil War. The US or even an Iranian military strike is not a workable solution. Air strikes in such a situation would almost certainly result in significant numbers of civilian deaths.
(The writer is Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Views expressed here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA)