The poll bugle in election-bound State of Himachal Pradesh has been sounded by the Prime Minister. It is going to be an interesting battle as Chief Minister Virabhadra Singh is facing charges from both, the CBI and the ED. The BJP is quite confident of winning the State
The hill State of Himachal Pradesh is in the midst of an intense political tug of war between the ruling Congress and the Opposition BJP, with both parties trying to outsmart each other in the run-up to the Assembly poll later this year.
What has triggered political speculation and built various permutations and combinations is the questioning of Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) for over nine hours in New Delhi. This was followed by a series of meetings between the BJP top brass in Himachal Pradesh and senior BJP functionaries in New Delhi. With Singh meeting Congress president Sonia Gandhi, the political temperature in the State has only increased.
Bringing greater intensity to the political build up, Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off the poll bugle for the BJP in Himachal Pradesh on April 27 during an election rally at the historic Ridge in Shimla. Though the Prime Minister was on a visit to re-launch air connectivity of the State capital with New Delhi, his rally was by and large a political affair. Prime Minister Modi urged the people to oust corrupt and dishonest people from power in the next elections.
As all possible permutations and combinations, along with poll arithmetic, is going in its favour, this is one State which the BJP thinks would go for it come what may.
After a resounding victory of the BJP in Uttarakhand, a little over a month after, the party is in an upbeat mood in the neighbouring Himachal. It is looking at parallels with Uttarakhand and also the same sort of electoral engineering in which several leaders from the Congress shifted to the saffron party in the run-up to the polls. Desertions may or may not happen in Himachal Pradesh but what is certain is that a political churning is going on in the State rapidly and there could be several ‘surprises’ anytime.
Despite the Assembly poll being months away, there is hectic political activity, triggered by the questioning of Chief Minister Singh by the ED. The beleaguered six-time Chief Minister, who is also one of the senior most politicians of the country, is facing a series of probes by multiple central agencies in the election year, which has sapped the entire political energy out of the 82-year-old Congress leader.
Singh, who remained unscathed in his previous tenure as Minister of Steel and Mines and Minister of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises under the UPA-II regime, despite allegations against him, is now finding himself cornered.
Almost everyone in his family has been questioned and his house was raided by income tax officials on the day when his daughter’s wedding was about to take place, last year. Not that he himself did not try tricks to find dirt in the Opposition. A series of vigilance cases were lodged against the Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association, which was headed by BJP Member of Parliament, Anurag Thakur. This was primarily done to tarnish the image of the BJP as well as leader of Opposition Prem Kumar Dhumal. Most of the cases, however, have fallen flat and little is left of them now.
Consistently on the backfoot, Congress leaders in Himachal Pradesh now say that the party will build its electoral strategy around the ‘victim card’, which the Chief Minister would play, if any ‘untoward’ incident does not (read arrest) take place. Singh has already given indications of this strategy, charging the NDA Government at the Centre of witch-hunting its political opponents. Even if Singh is not arrested, he will go to the people, saying how the BJP is “unnecessarily targeting” him and his family; how they raided his house on the day of his daughter’s wedding and so on and so forth.
Top BJP brass held a series of meetings in New Delhi with its Himachal counterparts, anticipating that the Congress Government would fall either due to desertions or as some party functionaries said, if the Chief Minister himself is arrested. Governor Acharya Dev Vrat rushed to Delhi and met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh and others to appraise them of the latest political developments in the State.
Former Chief Minister and leader of Opposition, Prem Kumar Dhumal, too met top brass of the party in New Delhi to ponder over the next course of action and assess the ground situation in the
poll-bound State. Union Health Minister JP Nadda, who has emerged as the fulcrum around whom the BJP politics in the State is revolving at the moment, also assessed the ground realities in his meetings with the party leaders from the State.
BJP insiders in the State insist that they would go their way if normal elections are held later this year without any wave. They are giving ample hints that if the Chief Minister is arrested, this may bring in the sympathy factor ahead of the elections. “This should be completely avoided and the legal process prolonged”, a party leader said.
In Himachal Pradesh, power alternates between the BJP and the Congress every five years and this has been going on for the past three decades. In the last Assembly poll, the Congress won the election and the BJP was a close second.
Even the Congress sympathisers in the State say that this time it will be the BJP all the way and they are themselves ruling out the return of their party. The only uncertainty is the fate of Virbhadra Singh. If the Central agencies take a tough stand against him and go to the extent of arresting him, only then the political arithmetic will change, a Congress leader assessed.
The BJP won all four seats of the State in the 2014 parliamentary poll by a handsome margin. It even won the Mandi lok Sabha constituency, which is considered to be the bastion of the Congress, as it was the seat of the Chief Minister's wife, Pratibha Singh, who was contesting against little known Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh worker Ram Swaroop Sharma. Since then, pro-Modi sentiments have dominated the political discourse and almost everything is going in favour of the BJP. In the Bhoranj Assembly by-poll earlier this month, the BJP retained the seat, indicating a groundswell of support in its favour.
With Virbhadra Singh being targeted by both, the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the ED, senior most Minister in his Cabinet, Vidya Stokes attacked the BJP, alleging that their leaders had ulterior designs in their minds to destabilise the popular and elected Government in the State but their ill wishes will never be fulfilled.
“The public of the State is well aware of the ill designs of the BJP and will not tolerate any attempt to sabotage the Congress Government,” she said, referring to three issues — possible desertions, removal of Singh by Congress leadership if arrested or early elections. “The BJP is trying to create vicious atmosphere and issuing ethereal statements just to create confusion and false atmosphere in wake of the visit of Prime Minister, to the State”, Stokes added.
But BJP insiders say that their leadership is in touch with Congress dissidents, who are weighing their options and opportunities. If there is one election-going State, where the BJP is supremely confident, it is Himachal Pradesh. Going by its past electoral record, the image of the Congress Government is taking a hit and the that of the BJP is soaring as an election-winning juggernaut.
(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)