The onus is on the individual nations to carry out their battle against the global environment menace. India must do its bit by identifying newer technologies so as to mitigate climate change. However, the US must not back out
Just days after registering a shock win in the US presidential election, President-elect Donald J Trump delivered yet another shocker, and this time for the environment by terming human caused climate change a hoax.
Trump has also vowed to dismantle the US Environmental Protection Agency in all its existing forms, much to the disbelief and astonishment of the environmentalists and the world community. This major shift in the environment policy could well be the sign of things to come at how sharply policies are set to change under the administration of Trump, and not necessarily for the better.
Under President Barack Obama, the US emerged as an environmentally responsible country that created a global consensus on climate change. Now, all of that seems to be changing with Trump deciding to cancel the Paris agreement, which commits more than 190 countries to reducing their emissions.
Though a Trump administration cannot legally block other countries from fulfilling their Paris agreement commitments, it can choose to, not carry out the Paris plan in America. This unexpected pull out by the country will render the Paris pact meaningless, as the US is the world’s second-largest greenhouse gas polluter after China.
The absence of the US could doom the Paris agreement’s goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions enough to stave off an atmospheric warming of at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, the point at which the planet will be locked into an irreversible future of extreme and dangerous warming. The world, then, may have no way to avoid the most devastating consequences of global warming, including rising sea levels, extreme drought and food shortages, and more powerful floods and storms.
Scientific reports released over the last two years have concluded that the measurable warming of the planet because of human activities has already begun. This year is on track to be the hottest on record, blasting past the previous records set in 2015 and 2014.
According to an analysis by Climate Interactive, a scientific think-tank, environmental policies of the US would account for about 20 per cent of the expected greenhouse gas reductions under the Paris plan from 2016 to 2030. However, given the impending exit of the US from the Paris agreement, this seems unlikely now.
The US under the Obama Administration, was also attempting to enable the developing countries to make a transition to cleaner forms of energy by providing help of $100 billion annually by 2020.
But Trump has also made it clear that all “global warming payments” will be stopped once he takes over. The disappearance of financial support will have a telling impact and weaken the resolve of other countries to battle climate change, thereby further undermining the Paris agreement.
Carbon emissions in the meantime, are rising unabated. The United Nations Emission Gap Report 2016, released recently by the United Nations Environment (UNEP), reveals that total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to show a steady increase, reaching approximately 52.7 gigatonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2014. Notably, the rate of global GHG emissions rise during the period 2000 to 2010 was faster at 2.2 per cent per year than during the period 1970 to 2000, which was 1.3 per cent per year.
The report also highlights that by 2030, the emissions are expected to reach 54 to 56 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent — far above the level of 42 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is needed to have a chance of limiting global warming to two degree celsius this century.
The predicted 2030 emissions will, even if the Paris agreement pledges are fully implemented by all countries, place the world on track for a temperature rise of 2.9 to 3.4 degree Celsius this century. Countries such as China have vowed that emissions will drop after 2030, with the help of a national system that would force companies to pay a fee for their carbon pollution.
Urgent and immediate action is required pre-2020 to limit global warming, as temperature increase of 2.9 to 3.4 degree Celsius can have devastating results by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
The US political developments expose the fragility and longevity of any major effort to control global warming and climate change. The onus has been and will always be on individual countries to usher in the change on their own. India, too, has its role well cut out.
To bring down the carbon pollution and global warming, India must pay particular attention to energy efficiency measures and link the same to Sustainable Development Goals. Moreover, efforts must be made to identify newer technologies and opportunities that can enable further emission cuts. This will help India to set a global example in mitigating climate change.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)