Be it political or legislative, economic or electoral, the Modi Government will face challenges in every sector
What does the crystal ball have in store for the Modi Government in 2016IJ The BJP Government’s administrative, electoral, economic and foreign policy strategies for 2016 will be crucial. Next year will decide if the Modi magic will continue or slide further.
Politically, it will be a challenging year not only the BJP, but also for other parties. This year, the BJP saw crushing defeats in Delhi and Bihar. The Congress, the Janata Dal (United)-Rashtriya Janata Dal combine, after a massive victory in Bihar, had reason to cheer. Inspired by this success, there is a possibility that non-NDA parties may come together for the upcoming Assembly polls.
In Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue to face hurdles. Since the NDA tally is not going to increase immediately, it will have to face challenges in getting crucial Bills passed in the upper House.
Four States and one Union Territory are going to polls in 2016 — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry. Barring Puducherry, the rest are big States. The Congress is in power in Assam and Kerala. The other three States are ruled by regional parties.
In West Bengal, because of a weak and divided Opposition, the Trinamool Congress is poised to make a come back. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is strategically working to keep the Opposition divided and her flock intact. There are also signs of a Congress-TMC tie-up. Other parties do not have a leader matching the status of Ms Banerjee. So, the election may end up as a one horse race .
As for Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam also faces a weak Opposition. Incumbent Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa is expected to hold her own. The Congress is almost wiped out in Tamil Nadu but there is hope that the BJP will do better. However, unless other parties come together, the arithmetic so far is in favour of Ms Jayalalithaa.
Puducherry Chief Minister N Rangaswamy, who broke away from the Congress to form his own party the All India NR Congress, is an NDA ally. However, a five-party front has been been recently formed in Puducherry.
As for Assam and Kerala, the Congress may not retain either. In Assam, a weak Chief Minister, Mr Tarun Gogoi, is bidding for a fourth term. He is facing stiff anti-incumbency sentiment. Both Congress and the BJP are wooing the Asom Gana Parishad. If the arithmetic goes right, chances for the BJP to win in Assam are bright.
In Kerala, which the Government alternates between the left Democratic Front and the United Democratic Front, it is now the lDF’s turn. So politically, the BJP is likely to improve and the Congress may lose.
There are chances that Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi may take over the reins of the party in 2016. Already, he has been taking important decisions in Parliament and outside. As for the BJP, the organisational election will be over by early next year and the party may have a new team in place. It is to be seen if BJP president Amit Shah continues as chief or a new man takes over.
Economically, if the BJP Government goes ahead with the reform measures, the outlook is promising. Mr Modi should reshuffle his Cabinet and bring in competent Ministers. The first challenge is to reach a growth rate of the 7.5 per cent. The good news is that crude oil prices are as low as $45 per barrel. The Goods and Services Tax Bill has not been passed in Parliament, and this can come as a major setback for the Government. Budget, inflation and price rise too needs to be tackled. If the Indian economy palpably improves over the next year, people will be convinced of Mr Modi’s growth model.
On the foreign policy front, Mr Modi should continue with his foreign visits, but with some diminishing returns as the novelty is wearing off. His Islamabad visit will be crucial. The other important visits will be to Israel and Japan.
There may not be much movement in the India-US ties, as the latter will be busy with presidential polls. Much can be expected from Europe if things are followed up. As for the neighbours, New Delhi needs a fresh direction in India-Sri lanka ties and a push for the resolution of the Tamil issue, which remains unresolved. The relationship with Nepal needs course correction. As for Bangladesh, with West Bengal going for polls, not much can be expected on the Teesta treaty.