It's not just cracking the whip on wayward elements that'll work. The BJP leadership must win back the confidence of veterans who have felt left out in recent months, and give greater political space to its State-level leaders
last Sunday, the Bharatiya Janata Party was struck by the Nitish Kumar-lalu Prasad tsunami. It is still reeling from the onslaught. Relief and rehabilitation will need to follow. It takes time for victims to receive an adequate measure of both. But time is not on the BJP’s side. The year 2019 has suddenly begun to look closer. Meanwhile, the party has to engage in other battles, the most important from its perspective being the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election in early 2017, where it fancies a good chance. And 2017 is just round the corner. Can it pick up pieces quickly enough, identify the genuine reasons of the Bihar debacle and more importantly, act to ensure their non-repetitionIJ It has a choice: Make the coming Assembly polls the stepping stone to retaining the Centre or keep floundering in the belief that these little fights will not impact its national prospects.
Many people, even those less sympathetic to the BJP, had been restrained in their dismissal of the party after it was routed in the Delhi Assembly election earlier this year. They attributed the loss to a variety of novel circumstances not necessarily having to do with erosion in the party’s support base. For the BJP’s die-hard supporters, it was a flash in the pan. It wasn’t, as Bihar has demonstrated. Things have not reached a point where the BJP is poised to lose every other Assembly election and then the lok Sabha too — not yet. But they can.
Popular inspirational author Napoleon Hill said: “When defeat comes, accept it as a signal that your plans are not sound. Rebuild those plans and set sail once more toward your coveted goal.” The purpose of his advice was to impart tips to readers on ways to grow materially rich. It is unlikely that Prime Minister Narendra Modi or his chief lieutenant and BJP president Amit Shah are currently seized with the prospect of gaining monetary wealth. Yet, there is the other wealth: The trust and goodwill that voters gave the BJP through a resounding mandate in May 2014. Both, like money, can be regained, but the waiting period is often long and arduous. Ask lalu Prasad.
The point is: Does the BJP want to engage in machocismIJ Should it wish to derive sadistic pleasure by subjecting itself to avoidable pain in the hope that somehow that will atone for its mistakesIJ When it was riding the crest of popularity, it could have used the whip and come down heavily on those who had added bitterness to the Delhi contest by their distasteful comments. No heartbeat would have been missed had the party done so. The BJP lost the opportunity.
Somewhat weakened now, though far from emaciated or on the verge of a national defeat as its rivals would have us believe, it may still have to wield the whip, but the slashes will now show on the party, as it will on the skins of those at the receiving end. But there is a question mark even here. Will the BJP go the Congress way, which is to take the easy way out through ‘collective responsibility for defeat and supreme leader’s contribution for victory’ or punish (even at the cost of causing some hurt to self) the loose cannons who have been slowly chipping away at the party’s imageIJ The clock is ticking.
The BJP has to realise that it must have done something monumentally wrong to allow a convict out on bail like lalu Prasad to bounce back. There may not be one reason for the defeat, as party leaders have been emphasising; there cannot be. But there will be a fistful of good reasons from the many that are doing the rounds, which turned the contest decisively against the BJP. The blow that came not just sliced the party but singed its partners too, leaving them emasculated beyond recognition. The three allies could together muster less than half a dozen out of the 83 seats they contested, despite representing on paper an impressive rainbow of castes. Their leaders too are responsible, though the BJP’s own losses have made them bold to counter-question the principal party in the coalition. If those decisive blunders are not addressed, the party could well stare at another embarrassment in Uttar Pradesh.
While the politics of Uttar Pradesh is different from that of Bihar in many ways, it has certain commonalities for the BJP. For instance, like it did in Bihar, the party will in 2017 face strong regional forces — in the form of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Unlike in the Bihar case, the two major regional outfits may not join hands to combat the BJP, but that is not going to make the task of winning less challenging for the ruling party at the Centre. like in Bihar where it (along with partners) had claimed 31 of the 40 lok Sabha seats on offer, the BJP with its allies had swept the lok Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh in 2014, leaving a measly seven out of 80 seats to be distributed to the Samajwadi Party and the Congress.
Also, like in the case of Bihar, caste and religion politics can play a dangerous game if they are not capped. Most importantly, with certain leaders who have gained fame (notoriety, really) for their hateful and divisive tendencies, belonging to Uttar Pradesh — just as some of them did to Bihar — the BJP will have a tough task to rein them. Uttar Pradesh is also crucial because it is one election-approaching State, besides Assam, where the BJP has a bright chance; it should entertain little hopes from those others such as Kerala and West Bengal.
Finally, it’s not just cracking the whip on waywards that’ll work. The BJP must win back the confidence of leaders who have felt left out in recent months for various reasons, and give greater respect and political space to State leaders. Also, over-exposing the Prime Minister to high-pitched State-level campaigns is never a good idea; it has become a compulsion because the party hasn’t done enough to promote State leaders — the Congress too had made the mistake and paid a heavy price over the years. In Uttar Pradesh, for instance, the BJP has no local face. Now is the time to begin work on that.