The coming year, and also next year’s Assembly elections, are crucial for national parties. Poll results may also propel a realignment
What does the crystal ball predict for 2017IJ Politically, it is going to be an eventful year. It will be the beginning of the second half of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first term. He is already making efforts to expand his party’s base as well as his pro-poor image and is also preparing for the 2019 lok Sabha poll.
It will be a crucial year for the BJP, the Congress, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as all are bracing for an electoral battle. It is a fight for survival for the SP and the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. It is a gamble for expansion for the AAP in Punjab and Goa. For the Congress, it is a question of revival. And for the BJP, it is essential to prove that the Modi wave still continues.
The year would begin with elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. The BJP is a coalition partner in Punjab and ruling in Goa. The Congress is ruling in Uttarakhand and Manipur while the SP is at the helm in Uttar Pradesh. It is crucial for the BJP and Modi personally to ensure a good showing, particularly in Uttar Pradesh.
Riding on the Modi wave, the BJP won 72 of the 80 seats in the 2014 lok Sabha polls. If the party wins Uttar Pradesh, it will have a cascading effect on the other eight States which are going to polls in 2018, including Karnataka and Gujarat.
The fate of SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and also of BSP supremo Mayawati will be known after the polls. Mayawati has been down since 2014, when her party got zero seats. As for the Congress, any improvement in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere will go a long way to lift its sagging image and also leadership. An alliance between the Congress and the SP might help both, but it has not been clinched so far.
In Uttarakhand, the BJP, which has been alternating with the Congress, is waiting to capture power again. With the controversy about the dismissal of the Harish Rawat Government (which was restored by the courts) it is not clear whether the Congress would retain it.
Punjab too is important. The Congress is counting on anti-incumbency faced by the SAD-BJP combine. A win for either would go a long way to improve their kitty. The AAP party is eyeing to make an entry in Punjab and Goa as well as in Gujarat. Anti-incumbency is staring in the face of the BJP in Goa and the Congress in Manipur. ‘Irom Sharmila’ could impact the upcoming elections as she has decided to contest the polls.
Meanwhile, the national parties have to also start preparing for the Assembly polls for eight States, scheduled for 2018, including Gujarat and Karnataka. Winning Gujarat, the home State of Modi will be a matter of prestige for the BJP.
It is also important for Modi to retain the goodwill he has earned from the poor due to his bold measure on demonetisation. But he has to also win back the middle class, the lower middle class, women, small traders and farmers who have been disenchanted with the measure.
The year 2017 is also important because the presidential and vice presidential elections are due in July. Since it is the legislators and MPs who elect the President and Vice President, it would be easier for the BJP if could improve its position in next year’s Assembly polls.
For the grand old party, it may be an eventful year if Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi takes over the reins. If that happens, Congress president Sonia Gandhi may become the mentor of the party. This will bring a generational change.
There are other parties too that are braving for a generational change. DMK patriarch Karunanidhi is ailing. He has already hinted that his son MK Stalin would be his political heir. It is not known whether it will be a year of turbulence or stability for the AIADMK post-Jayalalithaa period. Although O Panneerselvam has taken over, there is a demand that Sasikala Natarajan becomes the Chief Minister.
Punjab Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal too is fighting his last electoral battle. Win or lose, he may hand over the baton to his son Sukhbir Singh Badal. Similarly, although not announced, Mulayam Singh Yadav might hand over the party to his son Akilesh Yadav. In Jammu & Kashmir, the coming year will be a test for Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti’s governance. Post Assembly poll scenario might result in some political realignment in the Opposition as well as ruling NDA, depending on the results.
(The writer is a political commentator and a syndicated columnist)