As BJP alone has crossed the unpredicted half-way mark, the overwhelming mandate for a strong leadership warrants a post-mortem of exit polls which have almost failed to read the minds of voters
As Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi will take oath of office and secrecy day after tomorrow, questions about the authenticity and methodology of exit polls — none but Todays-Chanakya came close to the actual figure obtained by the BJP — seem to have been buried till the next general election. However, the overwhelming mandate for the Modi Government, a fact supporting the “contested” Modi wave in the country, warrants a post-mortem of the exit polls which have become a routine exercise after the elections.
Democracy is not a closed system. It guarantees people freedom to express their opinions through speeches, writings, etc. Similarly psephologists have the liberty to convey public opinion.
Nevertheless, we need to differentiate between the previous exit poll predictions and the ones for the 2014. If we look at the history of exit polls and the final election results between 1998 and 2009, whomsoever the exit polls predicted majority could not come to power in Delhi. That was truer for the last two general elections — 2004 and 2009 — wherein the NDA was given comfortable majority in the exit polls, but the results showed that voters had chosen the Congress-led UPA.
Going by the wave of “India Shining” campaign by the NDA in 2004, it seemed the NDA will retain power. However, the ground realities were a nightmare for the NDA, which was predicted to be getting 270 seats on an average (250-290 given by various agencies) in 2004. Similarly, the exit polls gave 185 seats (177-197) to the NDA in 2009 but the actual numbers were 189 and 159 respectively.
On the other hand, the UPA was given 190 (170-200) in 2004 and 200 (191-216) in 2009 on an average, but it actually got 222 in 2004 and 262 in 2009. This type of error could be attributed to various factors viz. methodology, lack of representative sample and pragmatically lack of contacts by investigators in remote areas or sometimes with rural voters, who are a big chunk of the electorate; and thus these cause exit polls to lose track. More importantly getting the exact picture from Dalit, Adivasi and Muslim voter remains a challenge as these are usually considered the silent voters and majority of them are still habitus of voting as collectives.
However, with the passage of time and precision of methods for exit-poll analysis, the results are coming closer to predictions. This time all the exit polls showed a clear lead for the NDA and definite loss for the Congress. However, here also all but one, namely Todays-Chankaya’s predictions, proved to be quite closer to the results.
The most erroneous predictions were regarding the full majority to the BJP on its own and the BSP not getting even a single seat. It is more significant on account of the BSP, it being the only national party that could not get even a single seat against up to 10 seats predicted by majority of the pollsters.
A foregone conclusion
It may be correct that the exit polls have not been projecting the true picture, but one has to accept that a few issues need attention. And these require deliberation not in relation to the exit polls, but the issues which existed in the public domain during the 2014 elections as against the 2004 elections for the NDA and the 2009 elections for the UPA, where general confusion prevailed for a larger picture.
For 2014, one possibility that was completely ruled out was that there will be a Congress-led government and the reasons have been many, including: First, anti-incumbency against the Congress-led UPA for the last 10 years as the Congress had not got consecutive third term since 1970 at the national level.
Second, serious corruption charges against the regime in power. Whenever there were such charges, the Congress lost elections as in 1989.Third, disproportionate media attention to the Modi-led NDA and projection of Modi as “the strong and decisive leader” as against “weak” Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi
Fourth, tilt of Dalit and Muslim votes in some parts of the country towards the Modi-led NDA. Though proportionally it was not above 10 per cent, it made a lot of difference.
Fifth, there was no Third Front alternative this time unlike previous elections.Sixth, penetration of the Modi Wave in the rural areas as media savvy population has been on the rise in these areas as compared to previous elections.
Seventh, almost complete absence of the Congress in some States like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Seemandhra and Gujarat.
Eight, dismal presence of other parties in the States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar whose support made possible the government formation for the earlier UPA and NDA regimes. In 2004 and 2009, the UPA formed government with the outside support from the SP, the BSP or the RJD. On the other hand, the BJP on its own got majority seats from these States in 1998 and 1999.
Ninth, small players like the Indian National lok Dal of Haryana had already expressed its willingness to support the Modi-Government despite having fought election independent of the NDA. In Meghalaya, PA Sangma was in touch with the BJP; Maharashtra Navnirman Sena also promised support to Modi despite all having contested independently.Tenth, there was not even a single State from where the Congress could have got majority of the seats.
Eleven, young voters were against the UPA as their aspirations were not reflected in the Congress’ old strategies and social media savvy young voters did not find its leadership attractive and decisive.
In 2009, the UPA regime was probably saved by implementation of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and the Right to Information Act which gave it decisive second chance. But in 2014, there were many factors, significant ones mentioned above that made one to argue that the Congress-led Government was no possibility, Third Front was non-existent and the writing on the wall was clear that the BJP would emerge as the single largest party and the NDA the largest front.
The States that could have complicated post-election picture and consequently upset the NDA applecart were considered to be UP and Bihar if Muslims vote strategically for the Congress, the BSP and the SP, the RJD, the JD(U).
Now, as the BJP-led NDA has regained power, it depends on it political acumen and truthfulness of its promises to prove all exit poll predictions of anti-incumbency in next general elections wrong.
(The write is Associate Professor, Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)