Against all odds, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party emerged as a formidable political force, while the BJP struggled to hold its own
When the Delhi Assembly election date was announced last month, it was expected that the BJP would form the Government. Since the 2014 lok Sabha election, the party had won almost all the State elections — Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Haryana — performed well in Jammu & Kashmir.
Riding on the Modi juggernaut, the BJP had been confident of its victory in Delhi as well. It only woke up to the ground realities when the first election rally, addressed by Mr Narendra Modi, on January 10, did not live up to expectations.
That’s when the party decided to bring in Ms Kiran Bedi as a challenger to Aam Aadmi party chief Arvind Kejriwal. The BJP did not want the election to become a contest between Mr Kejriwal and Mr Modi. Now, if Ms Bedi won, the credit can still go to Mr Modi.
But if she loses, she alone will be held responsible. However, to the dismay of the BJP, Ms Bedi has not clicked with public. Poll surveys predict a victory for the Aam Aadmi Party, so the saffron party is getting jittery. The Delhi BJP has made a mistake by making the election a ‘prestige’ issue.
Interestingly, this election is not being fought on manifestoes. The BJP has not even come out with one. Instead, it has released a 270-point ‘vision document’ that promises to make Delhi a world class city where women are secure, there’s transparency in governance and also proper housing as well as adequate power and water supply. However, the document did not speak about the BJP’s position on full Statehood for Delhi. The party had, however, mentioned this in its manifesto for the 2013 Assembly poll and in past elections.
The Aam Aadmi Party’s 42-page manifesto has promised a windfall of freebees without specifying the details. Mr Kejriwal is focusing on local issues like electricity, water, women’s safety and his 49-day performance in Government.
The Congress, which has almost given up hope, has also come out with a populist manifesto. Cynics, of course, dismiss these as promises that will not be fulfilled. The fight is between the BJP and the AAP, with the Congress receding to the background. The situation has changed from 2013 when the Congress was the ruling party. Now, Delhi is under President’s rule, which means the BJP rules by proxy. This indicates that when a third player emerges as a viable alternative, people might vote for the new entrant.
So, what has happened in the past two months that the BJP is losing ground in DelhiIJ First, while Mr Modi represents the Right-wing, Mr Kejriwal is on the Far left. Therefore, there is a convergence of interests between the AAP and other outfits which are opposed to the BJP. Parties like the Janata Dal (United) are openly supporting the AAP while the Congress does so covertly.
Second, both Mr Modi and Mr Kejriwal appeal to the aspirational classes and the youth. These two segments may think that since they Mr Modi is Prime Minister, Mr Kejriwal should become the Chief Minister.
Third, the Delhi fight is between a cadre-based party and a volunteer-driven party. Mr Kejriwal continues to attract volunteers to campaign for him. He has used digital media and a door-to-door campaign to connect with the people. The BJP was too smug and thought that Mr Modi’s name would bring it to power.
The BJP may have won had the Assembly poll been held soon after the lok Sabha election but that’s no longer the case. Also, Ms Bedi’s rise has not gone down well with local leaders. She has also not been able to connect with either voters or workers. The BJP may lose due to internal sabotage.
Fourth, the AAP has a major support base among Muslims, SC\\ST\\OBCs and lower income classes but has lost the support of the middle class. Mr Modi is also trying to woo the poor by promising them a house by 2022.
With parties not sparing any effort to woo the voters, the last few days of the poll fight have become ugly. Delhi is seeing a no holds barred electoral fight between two excellent communicators. Ultimately, the Delhi election will show which way the wind blows — and if Modi magic will continue or the muffler man will become Chief Minister. The fight is too close to call for now.