Tamil Nadu is an important State in the lok Sabha poll and will have a decisive impact in chosing the next Government
Tamil Nadu will play an important role in the formation of the next Government after the lok Sabha poll. Even earlier the State had provided a sizeable chunk of seats in the formation of the National Front, United Front, NDA and the UPA. The State, including one from Puducherry, has 40 seats.
Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, who is herself a candidate for the top post in the event of a hung Parliament, has made no secret of her ambition. In February this year, she asked the State to give all the 40 seats as her birthday gift. Soon after the AIADMK dumped the left, the unexpected support from the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to her prime ministerial ambitions, has come as a boost to Ms Jayalalithaa. Even former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda has backed her candidature recently.
What makes Ms Jayalalithaa so ambitiousIJ The election scene is now clear that there will be a five-cornered contest, the first of its kind in the State, which could be an advantage to the AIADMK. Moreover, the anti-incumbency factor has not yet kicked up in Tamil Nadu where Ms Jayalalithaa has taken care to address the governance aspect.
The DMK is suffering from family quarrels. Its chief M Karunanidhi has expelled his elder son MK Alagiri preferring his younger son MK Stalin as his successor. The DMK is yet to raise its head after its humiliating defeat in 2011 Assembly poll. There is demoralisation in the party cadres.
Ms Jayalalithaa’s confidence also stems from the fact that the AIADMK came back to power in the State with a thumping majority in 2011 in the wake of a strong anti-DMK wave. The party has also won all the four by-elections since it came to power as well as the local body election. She is confident that her party’s vote share will more or less remain intact. The AIADMK had a 38 .5 per cent vote share in the 2011 Assembly poll. Poll pundits do not see her losing more than a five per cent vote share in the worst-case scenario.
Also, alliances have played a major role in Tamil Nadu elections. The Dravidian parties have always preferred an alliance with the Congress except in the 1957 general election when the DMK contested alone. The AIADMK for the first time is going alone in the lok Sabha election, since its launch in 1972 while the DMK has forged an alliance with smaller and insignificant parties like the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi, Indian Union Muslim league, Puthiya Tamizhagam and Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi. The arithmetic is not in favour of the DMK. Its decision to dump the Congress has offered a major advantage to the ruling AIADMK. The DMK doesn’t want the Congress because it has acquired a negative image on Sri lankan Tamils’ issue and also the release of seven convicts in the Rajiv Gandhi assassination case.
The BJP, which has a meagre presence in the State, has managed to rope in three smaller parties — MDMK, PMK and DMDK. The BJP, DMK and the Congress wooed DMDK chief Vijayakanth, but ultimately the BJP won the race. The DMDK was a partner with the AIADMK in the 2011 Assembly poll.
Gone are the days of the two Dravidian parties vying with each other to align with the Congress. The DMK’s refusal to shake hands with the Congress is forcing it to go alone in the lok Sabha election. Many of its local leaders like Mr GK Vasan are not keen to contest. The left parties are also isolated after their alliance with AIADMK collapsed over seat sharing. They were unhappy with Ms Jayalalithaa’s offer of ‘one seat each’ while they demanded three each. Their apprehensions were that she was keeping her options open in the post-poll scenario with the BJP.
Both the Dravidian parties have come up with populist manifestoes. They have promised a change in oil pricing formula, scrapping of foreign direct investment in retail, and hike in exemption limit for individual income tax. However, one major difference is that the AIADMK has promised freebies like fans, mixer grinders, laptops, goats, cows, four gram gold for poor women’s marriage and other things, while the DMK’s manifesto is silent on the freebies. It also covers retrieval of Katchatheevu, ceded by India to Sri lanka 40 years ago.
BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is hoping for the support of his friend, Ms Jayalalithaa, but the results will show which way the tide turns. Among the six big States where the BJP is weak Tamil Nadu is important and the results will have a huge impact on the formation of the next Government.