In both the VVIP constituencies, much depends on Muslim voters who are neither impressed by the Modi wave nor moved by anti-incumbency
There is a big hype about the VVIP contest in two constituencies in Uttar Pradesh — Amethi and Varanasi — from where the two prime ministerial aspirants are contesting. As AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal puts it succinctly, “Benaras and Amethi are the only two contests that matter in this election. Our priority must be to have Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi defeated.” While there should be no surprise at both winning their respective seats the challengers are trying to bring down their margin.
Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi is contesting from his family turf Amethi for the third time. Mr Gandhi is facing two high profile challengers — Mr Kumar Vishwas of the AAP and Ms Smriti Irani of the BJP. Now that the polling is over, we have to wait till May 16. Mr Gandhi had won the seat in 2009 with a 3.70 lakh margin. So why should his margin come down in this electionIJ Although ground-level reports show that Amethi is quite disappointed with the lack of amenities and infrastructure expected in a VVIP constituency, Mr Gandhi should be able to retain the seat despite the anti-Congress mood in the country. If Mr Gandhi loses the election then the challenger would also become a giant killer.
Both the AAP and the BJP are keen to challenging the Gandhi scion. The BJP had shown that it could bring down the margin when it fielded Ms Sushma Swaraj against Ms Sonia Gandhi in Bellary in 1999, where Ms Swaraj lost just by 55,000 votes. But comparing Varanasi and Amethi will be like comparing apples and oranges. They have some similarities and also some dissimilarities. Both are witnessing a lively fight representing colour, caste, religion, emotion and symbolism.
While Varanasi is an ancient holy city for the Hindus it is also important for the Buddhists and Jains. It is a symbol of Hindu religion, education and culture. It is not surprising why BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has chosen this seat. It attracts not only pilgrims but also tourists and has its old world charm in the 100 odd ghats, lanes and bylanes.
In contrast, Amethi is a sleepy rural constituency and comes alive only during elections. It has no signs of a VVIP constituency. The AAP and the BJP are fully playing up the issues of lack of amenities, education and health. In the 2012 Assembly election, the Congress won only two seats in Amethi.
Mr Modi has chosen Varanasi as his second seat. Representing Varanasi is symbolic. It is considered a safe BJP seat as the party has held it for long. In the 2009 election the party’s former president Murli Manohar Joshi narrowly won the seat. Mr Modi has two main challengers — AAP chief Kejriwal and the Congress candidate Ajay Rai. Mr Kejriwal has the track record of a giant killer. He believes in micro-level strategy. He has already held secret meetings with Hindu seers and sought the help of Muslim clerics. If the Muslims help him, he is likely to emerge as number two.
Getting ready for a perfect contest in Varanasi, the opposition parties quietly worked on a plan to make it a Mr Modi versus the rest contest. There is a tacit understanding between political groups to consolidate the Opposition votes against Mr Modi. The sudden withdrawal of Quami Ekta Dal candidate Mukhtar Ansari from the fray and his support to Mr Rai gives clear indication of the regroupings. Although caste is an important factor in their electoral fortunes, the 3.5 lakh Muslim voters hold the key to the success of the candidates as well as their margin.
If Mr Modi has impressed Varanasi with his mega road-show, Mr Kejriwal is concentrating in rural Varanasi. He meets people in small groups, visits the ghats, goes round the lanes and bylanes of impoverished Muslim weavers and seeks the support of the Dalits, Muslims and the economically poor.
The more the BJP flexes its muscle, the more the Muslims fear Mr Modi. In both the VVIP constituencies the margin depends upon the Muslim votes.The Muslims have a choice between the AAP and the Congress and they are probably moving towards the AAP in Varanasi and the Congress in Amethi.