The danger gets twice as bad

Have we ever wondered why the Pakistan Army, which has made ceasefire violations in Jammu & Kashmir a habit, allows the Indian Army to re-build the fence on the line of Control without interference after it is destroyed by vagaries of nature especially the snow each yearIJThe fence, according to the Indian Army brass, is an invaluable anti-infiltration asset, which impedes Pakistan Army’s strategy of pushing terrorists into Jammu & Kashmir. The Northern Army Commander, lt Gen DS Hooda recently told the media that the fence would be upgraded to increase its effectiveness by notches. “The new fence will be twice as effective as the existing one. It will be hard to breach,” he said, adding that by 2019, the Army hopes to extend the fence in the valley that will cost nearly Rs500 crore. 

There are layers of fence in Jammu & Kashmir. The first layer is on the loC around which, the Army has built its operational deployments in three-tiers — one ahead, one along and the third-tier behind the fence. The Army in large numbers does round the clock patrolling and lays ambushes to check infiltrators who manage to breach the fence. The GOC 25 division (the biggest division in 16 Corps south of the Pir Panjal range which divides Jammu & Kashmir) had proudly told this writer, two years ago that in his zone of responsibility, there was zero-infiltration because his troops on day-in-day-out duties barely slept for three to five hours at night. The situation in 15 corps responsible for the valley is much the same.

The second layer of fence is around all Army units in Jammu & Kashmir. Since there have been instances of terrorists attacking Army units, the perimeter defences built around fences have been strengthened depending upon their proximity to the loC. If this was not enough, the Army now plans to have more fences inside the valley by 2019.

From Pakistan’s perspective, the series of fences in Jammu & Kashmir ensures that the Indian Army continues to combat within its own territory with the fence becoming its physical, mental and psychological limit of war-fighting, obviating the possibility of hitting terrorist sanctuaries inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. This leaves the Pakistan Army with time, energy and resources to devote itself to training for operational surprises in a conventional war with the help from China’s People’s liberation Army. 

The Pakistan Army’s intentions were laid bare by its Director General, Inter-Services Public Relations, Major Gen Asim Bajwa who recently Tweeted that, “Pakistan Army and the PlA form edifice of our strategic relations.” It means that since the common adversary — India — is the basis of the strategic relations between the two allies, they should work together to outdo Indian Army’s stated strategy of preparedness for a two-front war, which in itself is impossible to accomplish.

Since the PlA believes in deception and psychological rather than physical victory, it would help Pakistan military’s war-fighting capabilities by (a) stealth and (b) building interoperability by commonality of equipment and joint training.Sharing by stealth would be in three new war domains of cyber, outer space and electromagnetic spectrum, areas where the PlA has acquired capabilities which even worry the US.

The PlA disclosed its cyber organisation in its 2013 edition of The Science of Military Strategy, a document which is published once a generation. According to the document, the PlA would develop expertise in a number of areas in cyber space namely, network reconnaissance, network defence, network attack and network deterrence. The overall cyber organisation while working under the PlA cyber command would have close cooperation between military, Government and civilian (non-state actors) entities, an acknowledgement that cyber war would be used against the entire information domain across civilian and military entities.

Since there were recent reports of Pakistan cyber-hacking into the Indian Government systems, it would be fair to assume that the Pakistan Army could have become a part of China’s cyber organisation. Thus, computer systems which are the nerve centres of Indian unmanned aerial vehicles (existing and planned unmanned combat aerial vehicles) ground control station could become vulnerable to de-capacitation by Pakistan cyber-attack capabilities acquired from the PlA.

Meanwhile, there are Pentagon reports that China could have nearly 42,000 unmanned aerial vehicles of different varieties including with military and civil application by 2020. Even if these figures appear exaggerated, there is little gainsaying that China will have largest numbers of unmanned vehicles and helicopters with Pakistan being a beneficiary.

It could be the same story regarding outer space. China already has its own Beidou navigation satellite system where Pakistan has been allowed into military resolution modules. At present, the Beidou system covers the entire Asia and by 2020, it hopes to cover the globe. The Indian military platforms which use US commercial navigation system for network centricity needed for precision guided bombs, communication links to field headquarters and imagery from drones would be placed in a disadvantageous position.

This is not all. The PlA in May 2013 fired anti-ballistic missile which could reach geosynchronous orbit (35,000 feet above earth); the US concluded that the firing was designed to test its potential anti-satellite missile Dong Neng-2. The same year, China demonstrated capability of a robotic arm on its satellite which could grab another satellite. Given this, satellites in the stationary synchronous orbit which are most difficult to place will become vulnerable. It is a matter of time before China would be able to destroy satellites in all orbits — low, polar and geosynchronous. 

On the one hand, the Pakistan Army with help from the PlA would be able to destroy or incapacitate Indian communication and navigation satellites in various orbits. On the other hand, it would be able to use its stand-off weapons capabilities with devastating effect. Pakistan’s plethora of cruise missiles (like Babur acquired from PlA) could transform the traditional battlefield already affected by land connectivity in north Kashmir.

There are reports that fibre optics for better connectivity has been laid between Rawalpindi and PlA’s Xinjiang headquarters. The Pakistan Army uses Chinese tanks; the Pakistan Air Force has three squadrons of Chinese-Pakistani JF-17 aircraft, the final number will be 250 aircraft; there are little doubts that Chinese J-31 aircraft will be shared with Pakistan; the Pakistan Navy has signed for eight Chinese diesel submarines and so on. The increasing commonality of equipment and weapon platforms across the three services indicates adequate availability of weapons, ammunition and spares with Pakistan Armed Forces. 

Moreover, both sides are giving enough attention to joint training with special attention to high altitude training on land and air. There are reports of advanced air exercises between the two Air Forces across Pakistan-occupied Kashmir which have been made possible by the ceasefire between India and Pakistan.

In summation, since the November 2003, ceasefire on the loC, conventional war-fighting training between Pakistan and the PlA has gathered pace. It would not be wrong to deduce that the Indian military could well be facing the prospect of a two-in-one war (PlA supporting the Pakistan Army across all war domains) at a time when its own Army is busy fighting terrorists behind fences.

(The writer is editor FORCE newsmagazine and can be reached at pravin@forceindia.net)