Questions on the way ahead for India-US relationship in the Trump presidency persist despite the many positive indications. The President-elect has given mixed signals
Will India-United States relations, which have reached the level of a ‘strategic partnership’, continue their upward trajectoryIJ The question looms large as January 20, 2017, when Donald Trump becomes US President, approaches. There are indications, including a bipartisan Democratic and Republican consensus on closer ties, that these will. Relations between the two countries now cover a wide field from trade and investment to defence and security, education, science and technology, civil nuclear energy, clean energy, environment, agriculture and health. India is the biggest buyer of US defence equipment, and Indian investment in the US, which, in turn, is the sixth largest source of foreign direct investment in India, is increasing.
Some of Trump's statements so far suggest that the upswing will continue. At a meeting organised by the Republican Hindu Council at New Jersey on October 16, he had called himself a “big fan of Hindu” and an admirer of Indian Prie Minister Narendra Modi. He has also said, “There won't be any relationship more important to us” than the one with India. He has described India as “a key strategic ally” and praised Prime Minister Modi for his stand on combating terrorism. Questions, however, remain, particularly in respect of Pakistan. Trump's strong stand against Islamist terrorism can affect US ties with Islamabad where critical sections, including the Directorate-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence, support it. He has described Pakistan as “probably the most dangerous country in the world” and India as a means of keeping it in check, saying in response to a question, “You have to get India involved... They seem to be the real check... I think we have to deal very closely with India to deal with (Pakistan”.
There, however, are other indications. One can be sceptical about the accuracy of the Pakistani version which quotes Trump telling Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, when the latter called to felicitate him on his victory, “You are a terrific guy. You are doing amazing work which is visible in every way. I am looking forward to see you soon. As I am talking to you, Prime Minister, I feel I am talking to a person I have known for long”, and describing Pakistan as “a fantastic country, fantastic place” with the most “intelligent” people. But that the exchanges were very cordial is clear from the statement issued by his office saying that the two sides “had a productive conversation about how the United States and Pakistan will have a strong working relationship in the future”. It added, “President-elect Trump also noted that he is looking forward to a lasting and strong personal relationship with Prime Minister Sharif.”
It is just possible that Trump’s laudatory remarks signified no more than an attempt to begin US-Pakistan relations during his tenure as President on a positive note. Even in that case, New Delhi cannot but be rattled by his expression of readiness to being a “mediator or arbitrator” between India and Pakistan on Kashmir. It has repeatedly made clear that, in keeping with the Shimla Agreement, all India-Pakistan issues have to be settled bilaterally.
Much would depend on how things unfold after Trump assumes office. There are issues other than Pakistan. Given India's commitment to fight climate change and use of clean energy, Trump's negative stand on both may cause tensions, particularly if he draws the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement which India has signed. Again, though Trump has acknowledged the importance of the role of highly skilled Indian professionals for the US information technology sector, a reduction in the issue of H-1B work visas will hit outsourcing Indian behemoths like TCS, Infosys and Wipro hard, as a resort to protectionist policies will undermine growing India-US trade.
Given these uncertainties, Russia’s reiteration in its new foreign policy vision document of its resolve to further strengthen its special “privileged relationship” with India, may lead to developments that will remove the perception that it was tilting toward Pakistan. India should welcome the move. Its ties with Russia/Soviet Union was once the bedrock of its foreign policy and Moscow has stood by it in every crisis it has faced.
(The writer is Consultant Editor, The Pioneer, and an author)