While there could be a case for creation of smaller States, the decision on a new State is a gamble which might just boomerang on the Congress
The people of the backward Telangana region have realised their 60-year dream, while the prosperous Andhra region has lost out. After years of dithering the Congress has finally taken a decision. But the million-dollar question is whether the creation of the 29th State a solution or a problemIJ On the face of it more problems than solutions are staring at the Congress.
Andhra Pradesh, the first entity formed on linguistic basis was created in 1953 out of the erstwhile Madras Presidency with Kurnool as its capital. With the States Reorganisation Act 1956, the merger of Hyderabad and Andhra States took place and Andhra Pradesh came into being in November 1956. Now Telangana is being carved out of Andhra Pradesh.
While there could be a case for creation of smaller States, the decision on Telangana is a gamble. The main assumption is that it will help Congress cut its losses in the 2014 election. Of the 17 lok Sabha seats in Telangana, the Congress hopes to get at least 15 after a merger of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi with the Congress, as promised by the TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao. The Congress is resigned to losing the rest of the 42 seats in the State. As for the Assembly poll, there will be zero presence of the Congress in Andhra, which had been the party’s citadel.
Although there is jubilation in Telangana, the economic and political challenges ahead are many. A political turmoil seems to be brewing which may cost the Congress dear. Politically, there can be a backlash as had been witnessed during the Telangana and Andhra agitations in the 60s and the 70s. Supporters of a united Andhra Pradesh are seething and the Centre has dispatched central forces expecting trouble.
The fact that Andhra could lose Hyderabad ultimately is a solid reason for the rich investors from the Andhra region to support the protests. The violence may ultimately end up in a law and order problem and imposition of President’s Rule. Also, the impact of Telangana’s creation should be worrying as it might trigger similar agitations in other parts of the country. An emboldened Rayalaseema has begun to demand a separate State; the Gorkhaland agitation has been revived in West Bengal as also the Bodoland demand in Assam.
Some Congress leaders like Mukul Wasnik have raised the Vidarbha issue and Union Minister for Civil Aviation Ajit Singh too will revive his Harit Pradesh demand. The Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati has already renewed her demand for splitting Uttar Pradesh into four parts. There are demands for Saurashtra, Kutch, ladakh etc. Given that Telangana has opened Pandora’s Box for similar demands, one way the Centre could deal with this is to set up a second States Reorganisation Commission to look into the issue of smaller States.
There is also the big economic challenge of distributing the assets between the newly-created Telangana and Andhra equitably. The fortunes of people in both the States would be affected. Andhra Pradesh also risks losing its primacy. There are fears about the real-estate prices crashing because of the instability; the apprehension that foreign investment to Hyderabad may dwindle and whether it will continue to be the pride of Information Technology companies. These are genuine concerns that have not been addressed.
Again, while there is a case for smaller States, there is also an inherent political instability, which is evident in the North East and the other smaller States. Will creation of Telangana result in more regionalism and fracturing of the polityIJ There are fears that the Maoist-infested Telangana might succumb totally to red control. This was one of the arguments advanced by the united Andhra Pradesh supporters.
Now that Telangana has become a reality, a lot of responsibility rests on the State’s leaders to fulfil the hopes and expectations of the people. There should be inclusive politics and a determination to build the young State. Unfortunately, as of now, there is no visionary on the horizon who can achieve this! The Congress too lacks big leaders in the region, while only family members of Mr Rao dominate the TRS.
The Congress has taken a calculated risk in creating Telangana, the over-riding consideration being short-term electoral gains. It has lost Andhra and ‘may’ gain Telangana. Only time will tell whether its gamble will pay off or will boomerang.