Whatever decision the party takes on carving a new entity out of Andhra Pradesh, it should reconcile itself to losing the State
Will Telangana become a separate StateIJ The vexed problem is about to be solved if one goes by the mood in the Congress. lawmakers from Telangana have accused the Centre of following a ‘one-step-forward-two-backward’ approach on the ‘separate State’ issue, but the Congress leadership cannot afford to dilly-dally anymore. The AICC general secretary and in-charge of Andhra Pradesh, Digvijaya Singh has submitted his report to party president Sonia Gandhi. There are two options: Keep a united Andhra Pradesh or to grant Telangana. The Congress leadership has to take a call soon.
Part of the reason for the delay is that the Congress continues to look for a win-win strategy in all the three regions. But it can no more postpone a decision, as elections to the lok Sabha and also to the State Assemblies are due in a few months. The Congress faces a Hobson’s choice, as the people of the other two regions will protest violently if a separate Telangana is carved out of Andhra Pradesh. While there will be bloodshed in Telangana if a separate State is not given for which the people of this region have been waiting for more than five decades.
The Congress-led UPA Government has got away far too long on the issue. Party leaders from Telangana region have been finding it increasingly difficult to justify this prevarication for years, despite Congress’s assurances in December 2009 that a separate Telangana would become a reality.
The Congress held that a consensus needed to be built on the sensitive issue. But most political parties and public representatives from the State are divided on regional lines, some opposing, some favouring Telangana. The region, except Hyderabad, has historically lagged due to its geography and politics. It has also been a Maoist hotbed for the past four decades.
The Centre’s flip-flop over the issue began on December 9, 2009, when the then Union Minister for Home Affairs P Chidambaram promised the formation of a new State, only to retract fearing a backlash. The Centre-appointed Srikrishna Commission listed six options in its report, but the UPA shied from a decision. Two things are at the crux of the issue: Hyderabad’s future, and the repercussions of sharing river waters from the completed and planned irrigation projects after the State’s division.
Andhra Pradesh gave 33 valuable seats to the UPA2 in 2009 and the Congress also returned to power in the State. However, the party has lost its hold since former Chief Minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s death and the birth of YSR Congress floated by his rebel son YS Jaganmohan Reddy. In the absence of a strong leadership, the Congress is staring at a bleak future in the State.
Assuming the Congress does grant a separate Telangana, what would be the falloutIJ The immediate crisis would be that the MPs from the other two regions would resign affecting the UPA2, already reduced to a minority after the departure of the Trinamool Congress and the DMK. The calculations for the 2014 poll were that the Congress would get a majority of the 17 seats from the region and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi would merge with the Congress. But the hard assessment is that it would not get more than eight to nine seats and the credit would go to the TRS which is spearheading the Telangana agitation.
Again, the Congress would be wiped out in the Rayalaseema region where the contest would be between the Congress and the Jaganmohan-led YSR Congress, who has an upper hand. In the Andhra region, the Telugu Desam Party, languishing these past four years, too would benefit in a contest with the Congress. The Congress tried to boost its fortunes in coastal Andhra by launching K Chiranjeevi, after a merger of his Praja Rajyam Party into the Congress, but that experiment failed.
If the Congress decides on a ‘united’ Andhra Pradesh, Telangana will burn. The Congress MPs and legislators will resign. There is also the possibility of the BJP joining hands with the TRS, and the danger of Maoists and students capturing the movement. The Congress may also have to change the State’s leadership to deal with the situation. Whatever the decision, the Centre and the State should be ready to face a volatile situation, even to impose President’s Rule if the situation becomes unmanageable. The Congress will have to reconcile itself to losing the State.