India is cautious about supplying Afghanistan lethal defence equipment and weaponry because it does not want to annoy the US and raise Pakistan’s hackles. But giving support to reconstruction alone will not serve our purpose
With the US and Afghan President Hamid Karzai deadlocked over the signing of the bilateral security pact that would allow for the presence of American troops in Afghanistan and the flow of foreign aid into that country, Washington, DC’s concerns are growing. Mr Karzai has demanded to re-open negotiations with the US Administration on the pretext that he needs additional assurances that America will not interfere in Afghanistan’s election, scheduled to be held in April, cease military raids on Afghan homes and help the peace process between Mr Karzai’s Government and the Taliban.
In view of Mr Karzai’s non-cooperative and rigid attitude, the Obama Administration is working on many options and strategies for its troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. One of such options being considered is to keep 3,000 troops in Kabul and maintain the American installation at Bagram Air Force after the drawdown. The second option is to keep 10,000 to 15,000 troops with more installations across the country. Another option which is also doing the rounds advocates the presence of a smaller contingent of troops in Kabul and Bagram until 2016, with authorisation to travel across the country to provide training and advice to Afghan forces. The fourth option is a complete US withdrawal from Afghanistan which is supported by a majority of the American people.
This can be gauged from the results of a Washington Post-ABC poll which was conducted between December 12 and December 15, 2013. It revealed that 66 per cent Americans, who initially almost unanimously supported the US war in Afghanistan after 9/11, now say that it was not worth the fight. Only 55 per cent respondents were in favour of keeping some US forces in Afghanistan for anti-insurgency operations and training to Afghan forces and the rest wanted no troops there.
An another poll revealed that 57 per cent Americans viewed going to war in Afghanistan as the wrong thing and had mixed feelings toward keeping troops in the country beyond 2014. A total of 53 per cent respondents disapproved President Barack Obama’s policies and role in the war, while 45 percent approved it. Though, a Washington Post-ABC poll also found that 94 per cent Americans favoured military action in Afghanistan in its initial stages, and six months later also 91 per cent people had favourable opinion towards it but presently, 67 per cent Democrats, 54 per cent Republicans and 71 per cent independents feel that the war is not worth fighting and the US should withdraw all troops.
According to a survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs’ survey in 2012 on US public opinion on international affairs, less than 10 per cent of Americans wanted the country to continue to be the pre-eminent world leader in solving international problems. The people generally opined that America should not act as the world’s policeman. The public opinion makes it clear that on Afghanistan’s question Mr Obama is not only under pressure but his popularity is continuously declining and he has to decide on the number of troops the US wants to keep in Afghanistan.
But even as the US deals with domestic pressure while planning how to withdraw from Afghanistan, Afghans and indeed their neighbours have been jittery about the prospect of withdrawal of international support and the uncertainties and tensions it brings with it. In a recent study conducted by the US Congress, it has been highlighted that the Taliban insurgency will become a greater threat to Afghanistan’s stability and peace between 2015 and 2018. In view of this, it has advocated keeping the size of Afghan forces at the current level of 3,82,000, rather than the 2,28,500 proposed by Nato.
This study has suggested that such number of troops would save the bloodshed likely to occur in case the Taliban insurgency gains more ground after the US troops’ withdrawal. Due to the looming threat of the Taliban insurgency some experts have also opined that if the US leaves Afghanistan in a hurry there will be same dangers, threats and bloodshed which were countenanced by Afghanistan in the aftermath of the Soviet forces’ withdrawal in 1989. It is a well known fact that the Soviets initially had left behind some advisers and trainers, and also funded the Afghan military, while it withdrew most of its troops from Afghanistan. But due to the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, such assistance to Afghanistan also came to an end which not only allowed takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban.
India, being a neighbouring country of Afghanistan, is also apprehensive about a total US withdrawal from Afghanistan because it fears the resurgence of the Taliban and the resultant terrorism and instability. The memory of the hijack of a Indian Airlines plane by Pakistan-sponsored terrorists, protected by the Taliban, in 1999 is still fresh in the minds of the Indian people.
Therefore, India wants the US to not to leave Afghanistan unless the Taliban’s threat is effectively curtailed. India also apprehends that the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan may make it difficult to conduct lok Sabha election in Jammu & Kashmir from a security perspective because of the heightened prospects of the cross-border terrorism.
Though India and Afghanistan signed a strategic partnership agreement in October 2011 to reconstruct Afghanistan, and New Delhi has invested two billion dollars into military training and development projects in Afghanistan, this country seems hesitant to fulfil it commitments in terms. For instance, it has refused to provide lethal aid to Afghanistan to avoid annoying the US and antagonising Pakistan. It also fears that more arms may catalyse additional armed groups in Afghanistan. As the US, in the past, has supported Pakistan’s concern over India’s role in Afghanistan, therefore, New Delhi is equally cautious about the supply of equipment and weaponry to Kabul.
In view of its security challenges and concerns, India has also rejected the US’s ‘exit strategy’ for Afghanistan during the recently held meeting of the International Contact Group on Afghanistan-Pakistan, attended by representatives from 53 countries in New Delhi. India is advocating for more international support to make the atmosphere in Afghanistan conducive for peace and stability. It feels that Afghanistan is at a critical juncture and needs continuous support from the international community to maintain order as well as tame the tide of terrorism. India also feels that the international community’s lack of will to tackle the flow of terrorism will allow the achievement of the past 12 years to go down to the drain and threaten India’s security interests.
Therefore, New Delhi wants the international community, particularly the US, to not leave Afghanistan in a lurch or until the Taliban threat is effectively reduced. But, presently, in view of its internal pressures and adverse public opinion about its involvement in Afghanistan, the chances of America addressing India’s concerns and anxieties seem to be bleak.
(The writer is Professor of Political Science, HNB Garhwal University, Uttarakhand)