Pakistan has always lagged in action, not in rhetoric. Far from being able to crush terrorism, it may well become overwhelmed by it. Implications for India are obvious
Nearly two months have passed since December 16, 2014, when terrorists belonging to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan attacked a Pakistani Army school in Peshawar, killing 149 persons, including 133 children. The outrage shook the country. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said angrily the next day, “We announce that there will be no differentiation between ‘good' and ‘bad' Taliban.”
Announcements followed, including that on December 24, of a National Action Plan whose key features included execution of arrested terrorists, the establishment of special military courts, to function for a period of two years, to administer speedy and firm justice to terrorists, and the enactment of legislation to that end.
The other steps announced were not allowing armed groups to function; action against publications spreading hate, sectarianism, extremism, intolerance and supporting the beheading of people, complete elimination of terrorist funding; preventing banned organisations to function under new names; creation of a special anti-terrorism force; action to squelch religious extremism and protect religious minorities, the registration and regulations of madarasas, and the acceleration of the pace of administrative reforms and development in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, keeping in mind the immediate priority given to the return of internally displaced persons,
The National Action Plan spoke of complete dismantling of terrorist communication networks, immediate steps to stop the spread of terrorism on the Internet and social media, the leaving of no room for the spread of terrorism in Punjab as in any other part of the country, the continuation of operations in Punjab until the attainment of their goal, the crafting of a comprehensive policy on Afghan refugees, and legislation to speed up of criminal law reforms to enable provincial intelligence organisations to access terrorists' networks and further strengthen anti-terrorism organisations.
Measures followed. On December 26, security forces killed Saddam, an alleged organiser of the school attack. On January 6, Pakistan's National Assembly unanimously passed a legislation enabling the establishment of special military courts. On January 22, Pakistan announced the banning of Jamaat-ud-Dawa'ah linked to the lashkar-e-Tayyeba and the Haqqani network. Other banned organisations included Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Falah-i-Insaniat Foundation, Ummah Tameer-i-Nau, Haji Khairullah Hajji Sattar Money Exchange, Rahat limited, Roshan Money Exchange, Al-Akhtar Trust, Al-Rashid Trust. The Pakistani Government had reportedly already ordered the freezing of the assets of the banned outfits.
The special military courts have been set up and, according to the Pakistan military's spokesman, Major General Asim Bajwa on February 8, would hear the first 12 cases “next week” — which makes it this week. A total of 10,600 people have reportedly been rounded up on various charges. All this, including reports of intensified military campaign against Islamist terrorists, sounds impressive. But then, as exemplified by former General-turned-President Pervez Musharraf's address to the nation on January 12, 2002, Pakistani authorities have never lagged in rhetoric.
The trouble has been with action. Despite the ban announced on January 22, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa'ah continues to function freely in Pakistan, putting a question mark against Prime Minister Sharif's statement about not differentiating henceforth between “good” and “bad” terrorists. Besides, all of the over 30 terrorist organisations active in Pakistan have links with the country's intelligence agencies. Even if the agencies formally sever their ties, friends within will help, making effective action against them difficult.
Finally, the Pakistan Army's orientation has been toward fighting a conventional war against India. Transforming it into an effective counter-insurgency/terrorism force will be difficult, particularly since many of the Islamist elements, planted during General Zia-ul-Haq's tenure as chief, remain and will drag their feet. As important, the economic, social and cultural factors breeding terrorism, are becoming worse in Pakistan. The message is simple: Far from being able to crush terrorism, Pakistan may well become overwhelmed by it. The implications for India are obvious.