The democratisation movement that started in 2010 in Tunisia and travelled to several Arab countries has taken a curious turn with the announcement of caliphate in Iraq. Saturday Special’s other two articles focus on the lapses by Al-Maliki Government (Main) and Iran’s interest in Iraq (Other Voice)
History has taken a full circle in Iraq. About a decade ago, US-led forces took up the cudgels to liberate Iraqi people from the shackles of despotic regime of Saddam Hussein. It witnessed a colossal loss of civilian lives. Bloodbath is again to be seen in the near future as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi-led Islamic State, IS, (formerly ISIS) will take up arms against other militant organisations as well as the Nouri al-Maliki Government in a bid to hold sway over Iraq. Moreover, as the US is unlikely to intervene militarily, wary as it is of retaliatory attack on the American soils, Iraqis are staring at another round of nightmares.
It is a tragedy that the ray of hope the Arab Spring had given in that part of the world is flickering as the uprising has taken a curious turn. The democratic movement that began in Tunisia and successfully travelled to Egypt and Yemen with the prime goal of improving their citizens’ social-political and economic lives slowly took violent sectarian colour as it moved to libya and Syria. While libya witnessed hijacking of its movement by the al-Qaeda, Syrians are stuck between repressive Assad and brute rebels. In both the cases, the West, particularly the US, played into the hands of terror organisations.
However, the case of Iraq is most intriguing. As the biased Shia-led Government left the suppressed Sunnis with no option but to take up arms to regain the glory they had during the Saddam times, the Iraqi chapter of Arab Spring turned into a mirage in the desert of desperation. While Maliki’s mal-governance didn’t leave any stone unturned to divide the country on sectarian lines, the announcement of caliphate in the area under the influence of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi-led Islamic State is set to turn Iraq into a raging battlefield.
Caliphate: Threat to terror groups, States
The announcement of the caliphate, though a politically astute step by Abu Bakr to seek legitimacy, has already encountered dissent and ridicule from Muslims, including Sunnis. First, caliphate needs the respect of all Muslim clerics who could issue fatwas to toe the line of “Caliph” Ibrahim (Abu Bakr). Second, all other Islamic groups will have to express allegiance to Abu Bakr’s diktats on “pure Islam”. Third, on the face value this puritanical agenda aims to force various jehadi movements to coalesce, it is unlikely as such a bold and unilateral announcement is set to cause deeper fissures as the warring terror groups’ identities are at stake and they my lose the legitimacy to fight in the name of Islam.
There is already a deep schism on the jehad strategy. While al-Qaeda believes in decentralised approach — as seen in its autonomous affiliates like Al-Nusra Front fighting in Syria — to focus on long-term struggle, particularly against the West; Abu Bakr’s IS has chosen a dangerous and impatient path to bring all Islamic groups under its direct control. Moreover going by the experience, the IS may not get genuine support from other jehadi groups as its notoriety of stabbing on the back of its former partners are well known. Abu Bakr’s then Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) took support of al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra Front to fight against Assad’s forces in Syria. later on, it changed its name to Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and made unilateral announcement of Al-Nusra’s merger with his group. However, he has been charismatically successful in convincing over 80 per cent of Al-Nusra’s foreign cadre to shift loyalty to his group.
Moreover, the Islamic State is a threat to the kingdoms in the Arab world. For example, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia seeks legitimacy in Islam to maintain its rule. In the wake of an Islamic caliphate, the kingdom will be obliged to express loyalty to the Caliph. But it is impossible for an independent State to surrender its sovereignty to a medieval concept. Therefore, even if the monarchies in the Gulf are not directly affected they are keeping tabs on the development lest they face the question of legitimacy to govern.
No endgame
Though the decade of assault on the social, political and economic fabric of Iraq, first by Gulf War II and later by the Maliki Government, provided a conducive ground for takfiri (a Muslim who accuses another Muslim of apostasy and thereby justifies his/her killing) elements to breed on Iraqi soil, the recent advent of Abu Bakr-led Islamic State has committed a blunder by trying to impose its brand of Islam on Iraqis. Iraq has been known for it secular fabric and moderate Islam. Iraqi Sunnis strive for peace, dignity, and prosperity. Sunnis have backed the IS in a bid to get rid of their grinding poverty and the biased Maliki Government, but they are most likely to reject the fundamentalist form of religion being propagated by the IS, the wealthiest jehadi group having $1 billion.
Now as Iraq stands divided — Kurdish fighters, Peshmerga, have sought Western air strikes on the IS, and Shias have taken up arms against the Sunni jehadi group — the innocent citizens of Iraq who took inspiration from the Egyptian slogan “bread, freedom, social justice” during the democratic uprising there three years ago must be cursing Arab Spring’s transformation into Jehadi Spring.
(The writer is Associate Editor, The Pioneer)