The Jammu & Kashmir Government has set in motion the process of moving to the summer capital. The coming summer will witness a reversal of roles — the ruling partners of previous years will play be in the Opposition and the erstwhile Opposition parties will occupy the seats of power and will have to face the heat. The Peoples Democratic Party-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance in Jammu & Kashmir has been stitched together, despite ideological differences, to provide an honest, sincere, effective and unbiased Government with holistic and integrated development as its unique selling point. Notwithstanding the propaganda launched by the opponents, the people of the State have high hopes from the alliance Government. How far the Government succeeds, will, to a large extent, depend on the ensuing summer.
Inimical forces will leave no stone un-turned to make the coming months a summer of trial and challenges. A peaceful environment is a pre-requisite for a sustainable development process. With the twin aim of hitting the economy and stalling the development process, Pakistan will use all the tricks in the book to disturb peace in the State and create an atmosphere of insecurity and uncertainty. It will do so with the help of its Army, its loyal mouthpiece, the Hurriyat and the Inter-Services Intelligence agency. Pakistan will continue to keep the ‘Kashmir issue’ alive through its hostile media, cross-border firing, state-sponsored terrorism, fifth columnists and jihadi elements. The ISI will also have additional resources at its disposal, in the form of terrorists released from Afghanistan after the US drawdown.
The ensuing summer will prove to be a major test for the new Government in Jammu & Kashmir. The latter should also be ready for its baptism by fire. Apart from the astute leadership of Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, an alert and determined administrative machinery will also be needed to tackle the challenges head on. The Government will also have to ensure that while fighting off inimical forces, there are no excesses on the part of the security forces and collateral damage is avoided at all costs. This will require a pro-active approach and total synergy between all stake holders.
The administration should also be able to anticipate such challenges and be ready to act quickly in response to a developing situation. The security forces will need to, not only concentrate on zero infiltration but also, launch a well-coordinated and precise operation based on specific intelligence in the hinterland. lax security forces, isolated police posts, political leaders and religious places in the hinterland will be targeted, with the twin aim of provoking the security forces and triggering communal trouble.
An important element of Pakistan’s strategy will be the Hurriyat. Mr Sayeed will need to use his political acumen to devise a strategy to manage the Hurriyat. The Hurriyat, to a large extent, has already been rendered ineffective. According to well-known Kashmiri analyst ON Dhar, “Hurriyat Conference and its leadership are products not of any Kashmiri movement but of the ISI exigency planning; the role assigned to the Hurriyat being only one of playing the game as charted in Rawalpindi’s satellite township which houses the ISI headquarters”.
The writ of the Hurriyat runs only in parts of old Srinagar. It is a fractured and disintegrated organisation. It uses street mobs to incite violence and disrupt the normal functioning of the Government. It enjoys little popular support, as is evident from its repeated refusal to join the electoral battle. As a fish cannot survive without water, the separatists cannot survive for long without popular support. The Hurriyat is running out of oxygen. Mr Sayeed will have to ensure that the supply of oxygen to the Hurriyat is totally eliminated. It can only happen when the electronic media realises that discussing the Hurriyat on prime-time debates is doing no good to the nation but only furthering the agenda of the ISI.
The Union Government cannot be isolated from the happenings in the State. A fine coordination between the Union and State Governments is mandatory. Pakistan will try to create trouble in all the three regions of the State with a view to discourage tourists and to prevent the development process. It will provide fodder to the opposition parties, who will be waiting in the wings to grab any opportunity to destabilise the Government and proclaim the alliance as a failure. The nation should also be prepared to face a situation wherein matters go out of control.
(The author is a Jammu-based political commentator and security and strategic analyst)