As the US draws down its forces in Afghanistan, ending its 12-year-long combat role there, New Delhi must take on a lead role to ensure peace in that country. This is crucial to Indian interests as well as for regional stability
Over 12 years in combat, a trillion dollars in overall war costs and thousands of body-bags sent home, the US, after fighting its longest war ever, leaves the land of the Hindu Kush this year end, with hardly satisfying results. Though the US successfully ousted the Taliban from Kabul in 2001, eliminated Al Qaeda supremo Osama bin laden along with most of his mid-level leadership and hundreds of their foot soldiers, Afghanistan today is far from politically stable.
It suffers from intense fratricidal strife with audacious terror acts directed against Kabul Government assets, the US troops and other foreign workers. Its economy remains at the mercy of international donors, its security forces grossly under-equipped and under-trained to take on Pakistan-sponsored Taliban onslaughts, consequent to the drawdown of Nato and Isaf this year. The fear of a civil war engulfing Afghanistan, thus, remains a distinct possibility.
That Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s refusal to formally sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US confers some uncertainty to the security situation in Afghanistan will be understating the obvious. President Karzai desires only the newly-elected Kabul Government, to be formed, hopefully, in April, to sign the agreement, which lays down the strength, equipment and rules of engagement for the US troops to be kept back in Afghanistan after 2014. That the US has informally requested India to prevail upon President Karzai, with whom India shares warm relations, to sign the BSA is well-known. However, India has made its stance clear: It approves a mutually empowering BSA and will not be “prescriptive, intrusive or judgemental”.
On February 14, Ankara hosted a Trilateral Meet between Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan on Kabul’s future. A Press release was issued by the three nations reiterating their commitment to a peaceful and stable Afghanistan, consequent to the US drawdown. However, it is an enduring geo-political fact that Pakistan’s Machiavellian strategies towards Afghanistan, its rabid anti-India stance in Afghanistan, and above all, its fixation for a pliant regime in Kabul, will continue to impair peace in Afghanistan. Amazingly, Pakistan continues to be obsessed with its outdated ‘strategic depth’ quest vis-à-vis India
Pakistan through its sinister Inter-Services Intelligence agency strives to unify its ‘strategic assets’, namely the Afghan Taliban, the Paktika-based Haqqani network, Mullah Omar’s Quetta Shura, Pashtun warlords like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and remnants of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, with most of these operating from safe havens astride the Durand line inside Pakistan to hit at targets inside Afghanistan. That this terror conglomerate is eagerly waiting for the departure of the US troops to intensify their anti-Kabul Government operations, as also relocate some terrorists to Jammu & Kashmir, is a distinct possibility with serious security ramifications for India.
India and Afghanistan share strategic convergence in the region not only on security issues but also in the fostering of much needed economic and energy linkages. Afghanistan, through Iran, is currently the gateway for India to the energy-rich Central Asian Republics — land access to which is denied by Pakistan. This has prompted India to develop Chabahar Port in Iran to access Afghanistan and hence the CARs. India, with Iran and Russia, needs to synergise its endeavours to bring peace to Afghanistan.
India must increase its commitments in adequately training the Afghan National Security Forces, give some lethal weapons and equipment to Afghanistan as requested by Mr Karzai and further cement its strategic cooperation with Kabul. From its vast arsenal, India surely can give some armed helicopters, T72 tanks, BMP Infantry Combat Vehicles, some mortars, a few artillery batteries, combat engineering equipment apart from communication resources.
However, there is no current requirement of putting Indian boots on the ground in Afghanistan currently, though it cannot be ruled out for the future. India will have to ensure the security of all development assets and civil infrastructure it has created in Afghanistan for those will be targeted by ISI-inspired terrorists.
India supports a “genuine Afghan owned, Afghan led and Afghan controlled” reconciliation process in Afghanistan. India must also reach out to the Hazaras, Uzbeks and Tajik leadership in Afghanistan with whom it has had cordial relations in the past. As India is respected by most Afghans, its continuing engagement with them will, to a limited extent, also prevent out-of-work Afghan terrorists relocating themselves to Kashmir. As an emerging global player, India needs to gear up to play a leading role as ‘the net security provider’ for the region. For that, India has to be well prepared to bear the costs which are sine-qua-non to further its standing and credibility in this rather volatile neighbourhood.
(The writer is a retired lieutenant General and the first chief of the country’s Defence Intelligence Agency)