For CPI(M), a left-Congress alliance means discarding decades of anti-Congressism; for the Congress, it’ll be a hard break from TMC
With Assembly election round the corner in West Bengal, the Congress and the left are likely to forge an alliance to offer tough competition to the Trinamool Congress. And if they succeed, the tie-up will be extended to the 2019 lok Sabha poll. It is indeed a gamble whether a left Front-Congress alliance will deliver the desired result.
A piquant situation will arise if this tactical understanding is sealed. Both parties are locked in a bitter power battle and are in a dilemma over the alliance as elections in Kerala and West Bengal will take place simultaneously. While the two parties might contest the West Bengal election together, they will be pitted against each other in Kerala. How will they convince the peopleIJ
Politics makes some strange bedfellows. Opinions in both parties is divided over the tie-up. Neither party has an alternate ally. They can go it alone but this will fragment the anti-TMC votes.
The left wants to become relevant in Bengal politics again. As of now, it is not even in a position to play the role of an effective Opposition. The left parties have yielded space to others like the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Janata Dal (United).
looking at the 2014 lok Sabha poll result from an Assembly constituency prism, the TMC’s vote share was 39.8 per cent and it would have won 214 Assembly seats. The Congress with 9.7 per cent votes won 28 seats. The left bagged 28 seats with a 29.9 vote share and the BJP with 17.6 per cent vote share won 24 seats. If this pattern is to be repeated, a combined vote share of the left and the Congress can be around 100 seats. The TMC may win 178 seats and the BJP 18 seats. The TMC has the advantage but vote-share often does not remain the same for all elections.
The catch, however, will be the BJP’s performance in West Bengal. The BJP won the 2014 lok Sabha poll on the Modi wave. Now, with a decline in Modi magic and growing disillusionment with the Modi Government, the party’s prospects in West Bengal have dampened. This is good news for the left. The BJP’s rise has been almost entirely at the cost of the left Front, and the former’s decline may restore chances for the latter.
As for West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, there is no leader of her stature in the State. Even the CPI(M) is yet to get back on its feet. The leadership continues to explain its mistakes in Singur and Nandigram as an aberration. It has also not undertaken any course-correction measures. Moreover, the party has not launched a sustained campaign against the TMC.
The State leadership of the CPI(M) has been making overtures to the Congress for a joint fight against the TMC. But leaders like former CPI(M) chief Prakash Karat and Tripura Chief Minister Manik Sarkar are against the alliance.
Also, how will workers at the grassroots level bury the hatchet to come together, particularly in West Bengal where the Congress has been fighting communist rule for three decadesIJ The two parties have a long history of violence. Also, why should the Congress forge an alliance with the left when it may have a tie-up offer from the TMC as wellIJ The Congress is divided in its opinion about the alliance.
The majority, including Congress State president Adhir Chowdhury, wants the party to align with the left. But others argue that the workers will not be able to reconcile with their rivals. The Congress knows that Ms Banerjee has softened up towards it only to prevent a Congress-CPI(M) alliance and ensure that the Opposition votes are not consolidated.
For CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury, an alliance with the Congress will mean giving up its anti-Congressism. And for Congress president Sonia Gandhi, it will be a complete breakaway from the TMC which has 46 Members in Parliament — 12 in Rajya Sabha and 34 in the lok Sabha. It’s the old, aggregated Congress vote — the TMC plus the Congress — that had helped Ms Banerjee break the uninterrupted three-decade left Front rule in West Bengal.
The fight is also for Muslim votes (25.2 per cent). Even if a Congress-left alliance were to be sealed, there still would be a contest, with Muslim votes splitting between the TMC and the Congress-left alliance.