There should be a peaceful solution to the stand-off with China. The upcoming meeting of the NSAs is a good opportunity for both New Delhi and Beijing to resolve issues. War would be disastrous
China, which has emerged as an economic giant and which has also strengthened its defence capabilities, is threatening not only its neighbours but also other countries located in far-flung areas. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the world had a lone superpower. But now, China is challenging its authority.
The present international scenario is in favour of China where space is created because of bewildered policies of US President Donald Trump. But no country can be sure that the US will come to help in case of war with China. Russia has problems with China but it is under economic pressure from the latter. The European Union is suffering from economic crisis and Japan has not cultivated military capabilities. In such a scenario, Beijing has understood that India is the only country which can confront its authority. The high-handedness of China is evident by statements made by Chinese spokespersons as well as through articles published in the Government-controlled Chinese media.
It must be recalled that China has constantly opposed India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group. It has also subverted India’s move to impose sanctions on Pakistani terrorist Masood Azhar at the UN Security Council. The fact is also that China is abetting Pakistan to create troubles in Jammu & Kashmir. Recently, J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti remarked that China is meddling in Kashmir’s internal matters.
Meanwhile, China felt slighted when India did not participate in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — a dream project of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Once India stayed away from the BRI, other countries too showed apprehensions towards the project and raised doubts about Chinese intentions and the efficacy of the project.
Nonetheless, the Chinese wanted to subdue India publically. Hence, it started creating troubles at Dolam which is the tri-junction region of India, Bhutan and China. Beijing is constructing road in the Dolam area which is a disputed territory between Bhutan and China. The proposed road, when constructed, would allow the passage of tanks, artillery guns and heavy equipments so that it can threaten the chicken’s neck area and the main road which connects India with its Northeastern States.
Chinese forces entered the disputed region, destroyed old bunkers and warned of dire consequences to Indian troops. Not only this, troops of the People’s liberation Army (PlA) as well as Government-controlled media arrogantly reminded India of its defeat in the 1962 war. But when Minister for Defence, Arun Jaitley, responded that India of 2017 is different from the India of 1962, the Chinese Government mouthpiece, Global Times, mentioned that India should be taught a lesson.
Besides humiliating India, Chinese forces also wanted to gain strategic depth in the region. In 2013, the PlA entered in Daulat Beg Oldi area and compelled Indian forces to demolish bunkers in Chumar region. The PlA has forced the Army to repeat the 2013 episode, but the Armed Forces, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi refused to submit to the dictates of the PlA. If Chinese forces construct the road, the safety and security of the Northeastern region would be in jeopardy.
Chinese forces entered the Bhutanese area knowing well that Bhutan is in no shape to face China. And when India comes to its rescue, it would bully both countries. If India does not resist, China will extend its territory and construct roads and bridges which would threaten India’s security.
Besides, China also alleged that the Malabar Exercise among India, the US and Japan, was aimed against it. China is opposed to the role of the US in the Indian Ocean region. The exercise occurred at a time when stand-off is on in Dolam and Beijing is building ports in Sri lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Djibouti.
The Middle Kingdom also understands that the present Government is transforming India rapidly; enhancing its defence capabilities through import and through the Make In India programme. Hence, the Chinese calculated that it is an opportune moment to resolve outstanding issues. At present, the Chinese economy is about five times bigger than Indian economy but India is reducing the gap. This is the reason why China has been threatening India.
China is using Kashmir against India. The recent statement of Chinese authorities that they were ready to mediate between India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir issue was a sinister move. First, it was already decided that it is a bilateral issue. There’s no question of mediation. Second, China is also an interested party as it has parts of territory which it claims as its own.
China has also internal problems. Islamic terrorism is increasing in Xinjiang — the autonomous region which is the biggest Province and it shares borders with several countries, including Pakistan, which is the epicenter of terrorism. China’s population growth has declined and its workforce is aging while India’s population growth is robust. It’s workforce is young. China’s internal debt has increased to dangerous levels as Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its rating.
The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in October and far-reaching changes are expected at top echelon of the party. President Xi has to show himself as a powerful leader. Hence, he has taken an unduly strong posture against India.
China, which is encircling India by inculcating close relations with Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan, also gave a stern message to Bhutan by sending troops in Dolam that animosity with China would be dangerous for the Himalayan kingdom. China also wants to establish diplomatic relations with Bhutan. It desires to set up its embassy over there so that the influence of India can be abridged and China can enhance its authority. To keep its aggressive posture visible, China also conducted live-fire exercises in Tibet. Besides showing its military preparedness, China is also working in diplomatic arena. The Chinese have briefed the diplomatic missions in Beijing about Dolam stand-off and put the blame on India.
Indian policy-makers must realise that at present, China is more powerful. Hence, at the present juncture, war should be avoided and Indian leaders as well as media should stay away from provocative statements. India should also not be seen in the camp of the US as it will enhance Chinese animosity. India has a good case on India-China border issues and should try to plead its case forcefully in the right forum. Chinese authorities use history and facts selectively. Hence, Indian policy-makers must prepare a fool-proof case.
India must state that war will be harmful for both countries and diplomatically it should also be conveyed that several countries, especially, in the neighbourhood area, are not comfortable with the rise of China. In case of hostilities, these countries would assist India, overtly as well as covertly.
National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval, who would be visiting Beijing to participate in the meeting of NSAs of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (Brics) to be held on July 27 and 28. Doval, during his visit, must try to resolve the present stand-off at Dolam amicably. Chinese strategy of humiliating India boomeranged as Indian forces are not leaving the ground. As per reports, India has sent reinforcements and Indian Chief of the Army Staff, Bipin Rawat, also visited Sikkim and Kalimpong and met commanders of 17 and 27 Mountain Divisions and assessed the situation on the ground.
Now, the Chinese administration would also like to retrieve its forces from the area gracefully and Indian forces should cooperate with them so that the stand-off ends harmoniously. War will be disastrous for both countries and it must be avoided.
(The writer is member, United Services Institute of India, and associated with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)