The electorate has three options for the 2014 lok Sabha election. It can once more plump for the ruling Congress combine, or vote for the main Opposition party and its affiliates, or offer an opportunity to a group of regional parties in the name of a Front
As we approach the 2014 election, the political scenario in the country is becoming increasingly dismal. During our freedom struggle and for a while thereafter, this nation had a galaxy of great political leaders. Not just Mahatma Gandhi but the leaders he nurtured were men of exceptional merit and character, devoted to high moral values and imbued with a tremendous spirit of sacrifice for the country.
late Prime Minister lal Bahadur Shastri epitomised the last of those greats. As a former Union Minister for Railways, he resigned owning moral responsibility for a major train derailment. His scrupulous personal integrity and simple lifestyle was the total antithesis of the extravagant lifestyles of our present-day crorepati politicians. Most seem to have joined politics only for personal aggrandisement.
The numerous scams of mind-boggling dimensions in recent years show that some of these leaders are worse plunderers than the East India Company. The British at least left us with an efficient, totally corruption-free administration and established excellent institutions of governance.
Today, we have a Government which is deeply mired in corruption. The arrogance of several present political leaders and their commitment to dynastic leadership have ushered in a feudal era of courts and courtiers. Their regal trappings in the name of security make a mockery of democracy.
In a parliamentary democracy, a political party or a coalition of political parties holds the reins of power. And the electorate has three options to choose from for the 2014 election — the ruling party, the main Opposition party and the regional parties.
But we need to critically examine the state of each of them. And the one common thing that binds our political parties is that they all worship the god of votes. National security is readily compromised at the altar of promoting illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into Assam or through persistent appeasement policies in Jammu & Kashmir.
The Congress has been in power for most of the time since independence. There is widespread anger against it for the numerous scams compounded by blatant cover-up and for poor governance. Never in its long history has the Congress become as alienated from the people as it is today. The people are disillusioned with the party and the new-brand Gandhis.
Despite our Prime Minister being a great economist, the country’s economy is in a shambles. Mr Manmohan Singh’s reputation for personal integrity has now come under a dark cloud. What was said about him in 2009, as him being the weakest Prime Minister, has turned out to be true.
Notwithstanding all the big warts on its face, the Congress has a fighting chance of bouncing back to power in 2014. Its assets are unlimited money-power and total unity within the party. Everyone in the party unquestioningly pays obeisance to the ruling family without a murmur. There is also the TINA (there is no alternative) factor which is a clincher.
The BJP is the main Opposition party. In popular perception it has failed to measure up to its role in a parliamentary democracy. Of course, both the ruling party and the Opposition share the blame for not allowing Parliament to function as it should.
The BJP is viewed as a party of squabbling leaders. Two of its presidents, Bangaru laxman and Nitin Gadkari, severely tarnished its image. Its crusade against corruption sounded hollow with rampant corruption in its backyard in Karnataka and its failure to deal with former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa promptly. No wonder the electorate administered it such a humiliating defeat.
In 2009, while walking out of the BJP, Mr Arun Shourie referred to the party president as ‘Alice in Blunderland’. The manner in which the recent Goa party conclave was handled lends credence to that remark. There was no finesse or tact in handling the issue of party mentor lK Advani. The veteran leader should have been spared the shoddy treatment that was meted out to him. His resignation, which he later withdrew in the larger interest of the party, gave the much needed shock treatment to BJP.
Perhaps the two most eligible individuals for the Prime Minister’s post in the BJP, and even in the country, are Mr Advani and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi. The former stands head and shoulders above all other leaders on account of his intellect, political record, administrative experience and unimpeachable integrity.
Mr Modi’s excellent corruption-free reputation is enhanced by his able administration and politics of development and progress in Gujarat. A brilliant orator, he connects instantly with the young generation and the middle class, particularly in the Hindi heartland. He is viewed by many as the hope of the nation. However, the secular brigade and the media have been demonising him for the 2002 Gujarat violence, and it may take a while for that taint to wash away.
However, the BJP has done well to appoint Mr Modi as chief of the Election Campaign Committee. Mr Modi is well-suited to enthuse and prepare the cadre for the 2014 battle. However, certain negative factors among the BJP’s two probable choices cannot be ignored. Mr Advani, despite his proven abilities and record, may not attract the young generation wanting a change from the old guard, while the minority community would probably vote against Mr Modi.
Regional parties looking to garner Muslim votes would also shy away from aligning with Mr Modi, and it may be difficult to breach the citadel of the caste lords, particularly in the rural areas.
The BJP has little chance of gaining ground in the eastern and southern States. Given the present political scenario, no party can reach the magic figure of 272 on its own. If the BJP can muster more than 200 seats, then Mr Modi would be the obvious choice, even though he may not have the experience of working in a coalition — or does not appear to have the temperament for it. If the BJP’s score is less than 200, its choice could fall on Mr Advani, with Mr Modi as his Deputy Prime Minister.
Centre-State relations have undergone a sea change in recent decades. With weak coalition Governments at the Centre, States ruled by regional parties have become assertive, even dictating terms to the Centre in matters of foreign policy like West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee over Teesta waters or Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa on Sri lanka.
The leaders of regional parties nurture prime ministerial ambitions. Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has made no secret of this. Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal(United) leader Nitish Kumar too is in the reckoning, though he keeps denying it. Chief Ministers of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Odisha may also throw their hats in the ring. But can Ms Banerjee and Mr Yadav get together after what happened during the presidential election when the latter changed track overnightIJ A credible Federal Font seems a distant possibility.
Meanwhile, the people of this country are yearning for a corruption-free, strong Government that can improve the doddering economy, provide good governance and surmount the myriad external and internal security challenges we face. It is imperative for the health of democracy and good of this nation that a suitable alternative emerges.
(The writer is a former Governor of Jammu & Kashmir and Assam)