The execution of Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr by Saudi Arabia would surely embolden the hardliners and militias among Shias and Sunnis to spill more blood while attracting a number of young people to their folds
On January 2, 2016, the Saudi monarchy carried out one of the most horrific and detestable executions in more than three decades — 47 people, including revered Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, were put to death. The 57-year-old Shia cleric from Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province — once known as Al-Ahsa till it was invaded and occupied by the Saudi royal family after the World War I — was known for his harsh criticism of the current Saudi ruling family. Way back in 2009, he threatened the Government that if the kingdom’s “East” is not treated properly, it might be entitled to secede. Originally, Al-Ahsa province was once part of present day Bahrain.
Even during 2011-12, he led strong protest movements against the Government, but it was purely non-violent. While protesting, he urged his supporters to stand up to the royal forces with the “roar of the word” only and this had attracted a large number of people as his followers in neighbouring Shia majority Bahrain as well. In July 2012, he was shot at and arrested by the royal police. In October 2014, he was sentenced to death on a number of charges, including his alleged encouragement of “foreign meddling” within the territory of the Kingdom.
Though he was a Shia by birth, he had made it very clear that he had no direct or indirect links with the Iranian Government. According to a report released by the Wikileaks, he, in an interview with US diplomats in 2008, expressed his desire to keep safe distance from the Iranian regime. However, the Saudi authorities were much enraged by his involvement in inciting people for secessionist activities in the Eastern Province and it is widely believed to have been treated as an act of treason against him. Hence al-Nimr was finally convicted of sedition and disobedience.
To be precise, the execution of al-Nimr is an integral part of the long-standing bitterness between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the so-called champions of Shia and Sunni sects of Islam. The schism between the two dates back to the death of Prophet Mohammad arising from a dispute who should be the next Khalifa — political-religious leader of Muslims — in his absence.
With the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, a Sunni dictator, the struggle for influence between Iran and Saudi Arabia intensified. Fortunately nearly three decades of tortuous rule of Saddam over the vast majority population of Shias, the country had installed the latter’s Government with an active American support. Ironically unlike before, the concomitant increase of Iranian influence over Iraqi Government had directly challenged the Saudi power equation in the region. Michael Petrou rightly stated, “The Shia, a minority within Islam, seemed ascendant. Sunni leaders began to fret about a rise in Shia power throughout the region. King Abdullah II of Jordan spoke about a Shia Crescent arcing from Bahrain through Iran, Iraq and Syria to lebanon.”
Of course, the mass killing of people by the Saudi Monarchy has displayed its barbarity at its peak, but at the same time Iran has equally exposed its hypocrisy by expressing utmost concern at the incident. Iran comes second after China in carrying out executions among the nations. Also Iran is the sole West Asian nation which conducts more executions than Saudi Arabia. Tarek Fatah, a fellow at the Middle East Forum records, “Since 1979, Iran has executed tens of thousands of political dissidents, most infamously its State-sponsored execution of at least 5,000 political prisoners across Iran in the summer of 1988. Decades later the Iranian Islamic regime still makes a public spectacle of hanging political prisoners in city squares, using cranes to magnify the image of men writhing as they die a slow death by strangulation.”
Sources in the Amnesty International state that Saudi Arabia has executed at least 151 people in 2015. Though there is no figure available from the direct source of Amnesty International for Iran, but the organisation has cited reliable reports and claimed 743 executions in the country in 2014. Nevertheless this factual comparison does earn brownie points for the monarchy. Moreover, being an age-old ally of the US, the beacon of global liberalism, the Saudi action is considered highly disgraceful across the world.
The sudden surge of reactions and political protests in the aftermath of the execution of al-Nimr, coming from both Iran and Suadi Arabia and its allies have deep political roots in the recent past. First, the current Saudi dispensation is highly disillusioned by the words and deeds of its most trusted ally, the US. It is also at odds with China and immensely pressurised by the sudden spurt of military intervention of Russia in Syria. The Army of Conquest sponsored by Riyadh in Syria is fast crumbling under the attack of the joint forces of Russia and Syria. And, the Saudi-backed forces in war-torn Yemen are not making progress against the Houthi rebels. Another heartening fact for the House of Saud is an estimate by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October that the fall of oil revenue may lead to the exhaustion of $700 billion in financial reserves of the kingdom in the coming five years.
Second, the recently concluded nuclear deal with Iran has attenuated the ties between Riyadh and Washington. It is widely perceived that Obama’s break from the Bush administration’s attempts to punish the mullahs in Iran backed by UN Security Council economic sanctions, and instead opting for an “engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect” to end the 30-year long standoff with the Shia nation has irked the monarchy in Riyadh. Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser and once Obama’s foreign affairs mentor, stated loudly in utter frustration, “He (Obama) doesn’t strategise. He sermonises.” Sermonising, being at the heart of much of Obama’s policy making, has deeply affected the traditional allies in West Asia most importantly the Saudi Monarchy. The Saudi royals now hardly find any meaning in waiting for the US intervention either to quell the Houthi rebels in Yemen or to prevent the global monster called ISIS. Finally, all is not well also for the Iranian regime as its Revolutionary Guards are meeting with high causalities in Syria and it would be near impossible for the mullahs to sustain and support the Syrian forces with the fast falling oil prices in the region. Despite Riyadh’s long arm of support (political and financial) for Wahhabi fundamentalist groups around the world, the successive US Governments have continued their support for the monarchy as a force of stability in West Asia, but now it seems Washington is slowly moving towards Tehran. In fact, Obama’s sudden abandonment of its one time ally, Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, during the Arab Spring has warned the Saudis either to look beyond the US security ring or to start asserting its own power in the years ahead.
The execution of al-Nimr has generated low-key protests from the Western establishments, their hyperactive media and among the human rights advocacy groups like the Amnesty International, International Crisis Group and the Human Rights Watch unlike the way this would have received attention on incidents occurring in Syria, China, Russia, etc. The reports and statements issued by them simply covering or intentionally muting the grave violation of human rights taking place in the Saudi kingdom. This grim account of violence would be a strong setback in bringing an immediate solution to the ongoing wars in both Syria and Yemen wherein Iran and Saudi Arabia are actively involved in the negotiation process. In the long run, the actions carried out by the two nations would be again adding fuel to the fire for the protracted ongoing sectarian conflict in West Asia. This incident would surely embolden the hardliners and militias among Shias and Sunnis to spill more blood while attracting a number of young people to their folds. Hope rulers in West Asia understand and respect the thin silver line that exists between the two sects of Islam in future.
(The writer is an independent political analyst based in Delhi)