Even as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE’s war against the Sunni-militant group ISIS has given ample proof that the ISIS fighters have nothing to do with Islam, Turkey’s reluctance to take on ISIS without certain conditions has shown chinks in US armour against the Islamists group
As the Syrian border town of Kobane is fast falling into the hands of ISIS elements, Turkey’s reluctance to invade the border town to quell Islamist forces has come on expected lines even though the West may prefer to feign surprise over Turkey’s strategic move while the Western media goes hammer and tongs against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
It has been an open and guilty secret that Turkey will not enter the Syrian border to fight against the ISIS until certain commitments — removal of Assad, arming of Free Syrian Army and resolution of Kurds crisis — from the US-led coalition are achieved, as Turkey fears that jumping on the bandwagon may embolden the inimical forces of Assad and Kurds, who are already protesting against Erdogan’s breach to their fellow Kurds, who are at the receiving end of ISIS attacks.
Interestingly while paying a visit to a refugee camp in Gaziantep, a town contiguous to Syrian border, Erdogan was blunt in admitting that Kobane was set to fall into ISIS hands. What he spoke there in the local Kurds colony was meant for the West to come to terms with reality, suggesting that mere airstrikes were insufficient until the Free Syrian Army cadres are supported to begin ground ops.
Turkey’s situation is grave. On the one hand, ISIS fighters are a pain in the neck, on the other, the fall of Kobane into ISIS hands may stoke fire between the Turks and the Kurds of Turkey.
As far as Iraq is concerned, it has improved a bit because the American airstrikes have resulted in strengthening the position of Kurdish Peshmerga forces and brought a halt to the advance of ISIS fighters. The ISIS comprises two constituents: locals and foreign fighters. It is imperative to be clear about the differences between these two distinctive cadres of the ISIS. A majority of ISIS fighters in Iraq are local Iraqis, who had been sidelined first by the Americans soon after their invasion of Iraq and later by the Nouri al-Maliki Government. These local cadres of the ISIS are moderate and do not indulge in ruthless terror tactics. They have taken the support of the ISIS with the sole objective of getting their due share in the governance of their land. Once the Iraqi Government is successful in showing these Sunni fighters are the sons of the soil and are given their due, these locals will turn their back on the mercenaries and will drive them out of Iraq like they did with al-Qaeda terrorists and eliminated them from Iraq. The US invasion of Iraq and the subsequent grabbing of power by al-Maliki have divided Iraqi society. The former Sunni soldiers and officials, who had no history of indulging in terror activities, joined the ranks of the ISIS with a hope to defeat the divisive al-Maliki Government. Now as Maliki is no longer running the show in Iraq, the inclusive policy of the new government can woo back these Sunnis to be a part of the peaceful nation building.
The foreign fighters of the ISIS are the real terror force. These mercenaries, armed with lethal weapons, are highly trained and keep on shifting their bases inside and outside Iraq at free will. This is why the American airstrike on the ISIS in Iraq has brought casualties on the mercenaries only. After the US strike on their bases in Iraq, these mercenaries have fled from Mosul and Sinjar and taken refuge in Syria.
Syrian imbroglio
The Syrian condition is baffling as there are multiple stakeholders. Besides foreign mercenaries of the ISIS, there are al-Qaeda terrorists who have joined the ISIS cadres; and these are the real threat to humanity.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE have joined the US coalition to hit back at the ISIS. But given the vast stretches the ISIS is controlling in Syria and Iraq, it will be an uphill task for the coalition to contain the ISIS only through airstrikes. There is a dire need for local foot soldiers to wrest the vast stretches of land presently controlled by the ISIS. This can be achieved only by arming the moderate Free Syrian Army rebels.
Therefore, it is pertinent for the international community to help Arab form a viable military coalition that can successfully let loose its local forces on the ISIS. Such coalition forces should have the backing of the UN to go inside Iraq and Syria to eliminate ISIS terrorists and restore normalcy to the region.
Naturally, Syria is not interested in such Arab military coalition because it has the potential to jeopardise Assad’s hegemony. The Assad Government is afraid that once the Arab military coalition enters the borders of Syria, their ultimate goal will be to dethrone Assad, who is the prime cause of the rise of the ISIS. He allowed them to prosper by using them against the local Free Syrian Army rebels. Already there is much heartburn among innocent Syrians against Assad following civilian casualties in Aleppo and other major cities of the country.
local Syrians are abhorrent of the ISIS and the al-Qaeda. The open, non-conservative and peace-loving Syrian society is concerned that if the ISIS or al-Qaeda gets a hold on Syria, the Syrian cultural fabric will be disintegrated by the fundamentalists.
Death of Shia-Sunni divide discourse
At least one thing is clear that the West-propagated discourse about the Shia-Sunni divide and covert war in the region has taken a fatal blow. Now it is very clear that it is not about Shia versus Sunnis or Sunnis versus Peshmerga; rather it is basically a war for control of vast stretches of land by multiple stakeholders. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE — by forming a strong coalition and conducting airstrikes on the Sunni-militant group ISIS — have given ample proof that the ISIS fighters have nothing to do with Islam. They are simply terrorists and a threat to the entire region.
The Sunni-dominated ISIS is not only an inimical force against the Shia majority Iraq, but has already proved disastrous for the Sunni majority Syria. The declaration of caliphate by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is not only an archaic ideology but also portends bad luck for Saudi Arabia’s claim to being the custodian of the two holiest mosques of Islam.
Turkey is concerned about the rising influence of the ISIS. But it has other major concerns also. If the moderate Free Syrian Army is supported by the West, then the ISIS could easily be decimated. But the West seems reluctant to make such a move. Turkey is therefore, afraid that the airstrike could damage the anti-Assad forces. Therefore, Turkey demands a no-fly zone and safe heavens for refugees. lastly, Turkey, being part of NATO, could join the US-led coalition if the West promises to remove Assad from power after the primary goal of containing the ISIS is achieved. Turkey would not like any extremist organisation growing in the neighbourhood.
West Asia is witnessing a war of nerves and the two power centres — Saudi Arabia and Iran — are vying for supremacy in the region. American, British and French airstrikes on the ISIS are in a way benefitting Iran because the ISIS was emerging the biggest stumbling block in Iran’s wish to play a big role in the region.
One thing is clear. As US-led coalition attacks the ISIS, the sole beneficiary is Assad with atrocities by Government forces receiving lesser attention. Whether US-led strikes wrests Kobane from the ISIS or not, the devastation has shown chinks in the US strategic armour of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds when the enemy (Assad) of its enemy (ISIS) is not its friend.
Prof Zikrur Rahman is Director, India-Arab Cultural Centre, Jamia Millia Islamia