Over the last few months, the Rohingya crisis has been generating global concerns. Just a few weeks ago, a boat carrying illegal Rohingya migrants to Bangladesh coast sank. Because of the prolonged conflict, the exodus of Rohingyas is continuing unabated from the crisis-ridden Rakhine province of Myanmar. Gauging the extent of the crisis in Myanmar, the United Nations called it the “greatest humanitarian crisis”. Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh too are showing great concerns as refugees are pouring into their countries.
In India, around 40,000 Rohingyas are taking shelter illegally as per the Government of India report. like these above-mentioned nations, a debate is also going on in our country over their deportation. Since the Rohingya crisis is happening near India’s border, it is natural that policy makers are showing urgency to solve this problem because in the long-run it may affect both internal and energy security.
To get a correct perspective on the issue one has to look at the crisis holistically. The conflict, which is engulfing the western part of Myanmar, ie, Rakhine province where the two ethnic communities (Buddhist and Rohingya, majority of whom are Muslims) are at loggerheads with each other on the basis of “primordial misperception” towards each other, got aggravated because of the competition between these two ethnic communities to have a greater control over natural resources like energy, timber, rubber located in this part of Myanmar.
Along with natural resources, this region is also strategically located close to Strait of Mallaca (act as a “energy corridor”) which accentuates its geostrategic significance. Rakhine has also received a lot of attention from external oil conglomerates since 2013 after Aung San Suu Kyi announced opening of the oil fields for auctioning. Because of the involvement of external energy players, the oil and gas production went up drastically in the last couple of years. As per the report of Central Statistical Organisation and quoted in export.gov website, the total gas production in Myanmar was 650 billion cubic feet and the oil production stood at 6 million barrels annually. It may be noteworthy to emphasise here that the bulk of the FDI is going to the Rakhine region because of its possession of both oil and gas as well as its being “transit energy corridor”. Operationalisation of the much-hyped Myanmar-China gas-oil pipeline project in 2013 as well as in 2017 brought the Rakhine province into the limelight. China uses these pipeline routes to ensure its geopolitical dominance over strategically located Myanmar. In addition to the Chinese investment, many American firms too took interest in the energy sector in Myanmar. Some of them are located in the Rakhine province.
Taking advantage of the existing societal fault lines in Rakhine, external state and non-state actors took extra efforts to mobilise people on the basis of social identity keeping their own nefarious intent in the mind. The growing radicalisation of global politics, especially after the 9/11, along with support provided by Pakistan and some West Asian states, has contributed to the emergence of radical groups Rakhine.
Though a study by International Crisis Group on Rohingyas, published in December 2016, states, “The radicalisation process started since 1970s”. In this regard the above-mentioned report mentions that a number of “Rohingyas went to West Asia and took training in (firearms) there”. Growing radicalisation that is taking place in neighbouring Bangladesh also has an impact on the Rakhine crisis. Myanmar-based newspaper Burma News International in an issue dated October 19, 2016, highlights that a lesser known Rakhine militant group Aqa Mul Mujahideen having its base in Bangladesh and Myanmar border and led by Abdus Qadoos Burmi is gaining notoriety. The newspaper further said the group has close links with Pakistan-based lashkar-e-Tayyeba. The refugee camps located in Cox Bazar in Bangladesh, as has been reported by the newspapers, is becoming the hub for recruitment of radicals. Studies show that the refugee camps are becoming sources of recruitment of radicals. As has been argued in the literature on refugee-radicalism nexus, Taliban originated in the refugee camps in Peshawar, and Hizbut Tahrir al Islami (a radical group operating in Central Asia) is recruiting most of its cadre from among migrant workers of Central Asian origin working in Russia.
Analysts are arguing that taking advantage of their vulnerability; radical groups like ISIS may recruit these Rohingyas. This will also help this West Asia-based terrorist organisation to expand its sphere of influence in Rakhine. In future, the nexus between Rakhine militants and ISIS will threaten the security of South and South East Asia.
Because of the concentration of huge natural resources like oil and gas, Indian policy makers are also keen to explore the same to meet the domestic energy need. The deep-rooted cultural connection India is having with Myanmar is also providing the necessary thrust to the bilateral energy cooperation. Already Indian energy conglomerates like OVl, Oil India, and GAIl are actively working in Myanmar’s energy fields. Indian energy conglomerates can also play an important role in restructuring existing energy infrastructure. In addition, India is planning to construct a gas pipeline with Myanmar through Bangladesh. If this happens, then it can be a “game changer” in diversifying energy security need of our country. The Government of India in its report on Hydrocarbon Vision 2030: for North East India, published in 2016, has emphasised on greater cooperation with both Myanmar and Bangladesh. It is in this context one envisages the significance of gas pipeline projects. As reported, Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Bangladesh in June 2015 discussed the viability of the project with his Bangladeshis counterpart. Similarly, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Dharmendra Pradhan in his meeting with his Myanmar counterpart in February 2017 dwelled on the issue of pipeline connectivity. When Modi visited Myanmar in September 2017, “energy”, “connectivity” and “infrastructural Development projects” got prior attention from both the sides. The PM in his speech in Rangoon said, “The construction of roads and bridges, links in the field of energy and our efforts to boost connectivity indicate towards a good future.”
Though India’s engagement with Myanmar is growing by leaps and bounds, what is complicating the situation is the crisis in Rakhine. The Rohingya crisis has three-fold implications on India as acknowledged both by policy makers as well as academics. The internal development within the Rakhine region will put India’s investment in limbo. As per the data of Indian Embassy in Rangoon, India is one the largest investors in Myanmar. The bulk of India’s investment goes to the oil and gas sector. In addition to the gas projects, India has developed the Sittwe port (as part of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project) which brings Rakhine closer to the Indian territory.
Any disruption in and around Rakhine will interrupt India’s geoeconomic engagement which includes MBI pipeline route. Finally greater radicalisation in the western part of Myanmar (Rakhine region) will directly or indirectly affect India’s security because Rohingya radicals are being trained by Pakistan’s ISI, as claimed in news reports. Because of the geographical proximity of Myanmar and radicalisation in Rakhine, India may also face the heat from Rohingya radicals.
During the visit of Modi to Myanmar, the Joint Statement between the two countries emphasised that “both sides condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations”. A greater Indian engagement in the Rakhine crisis will not only resolve the Rohingya issue but also ensure economic development in this region. This will also address India’s energy security need and at the same time checkmate the expansionist tendencies of China. It will also contain Pakistan’s wish to complicate the situation in the Rakhine region to achieve their own geopolitical objectives. It is in this context one has to look at India’s geopolitical as well as strategic energy engagement with Myanmar.
(The writer is Assistant Professor, Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Jawaharlal NehruUniversity)