Although Narendra Modi has crossed the first hurdle in his prime ministerial race, he has a long way to go
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has crossed the first hurdle by becoming the chairman of the BJP’s Election Campaign Committee. This decision of the BJP’s national executive in Goa is seen as a step towards his becoming the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP. Things are so far going according to Mr Modi’s script. But the euphoria on his announcement became a damper when the focus turned towards party patriarch lK Advani who resigned from three of the party posts the next day. The hurdle race has just begun. Mr Modi has to become a unifying force rather than a divisive one within his own party. The immediate challenge is to mollify Mr Advani and get the support of the others who are opposed to him. Though Mr Advani has taken back his resignation but one has to see if he emerges stronger.
The second hurdle is getting the support of other senior leaders like Yashwant Sinha, Uma Bharti and Jaswant Singh — all of whom stayed away from the Goa meet. They are waiting for a chance to see whether one of them could emerge as a dark horse at the proper time. They will be closely watching Mr Modi’s performance, who has to prove that he will carry everybody along with him and find a role for each one of them. Although Mr Modi’s supporters claim that with or without their support he could perform miracles in the next election, it is common sense that their support is required. This is not an easy thing for Mr Modi. Moreover, how can the BJP face the electorate with a leader who is seen to be opposed by some in his own partyIJ
Will Modi be able to get the nomination from the NDAIJ What about partners like the JD(U)IJ If Mr Advani continues to be the chairman of the NDA, will he not block Mr Modi at the NDA levelIJ Mr Advani is a much more experienced politician and he can find hundred ways of blocking Mr Modi.
It is clear that the NDA will break sooner than later under Mr Modi’s leadership. The JD(U) will be the first to break away. In a coalition era, Mr Modi knows that it is the arithmetic which works and not the chemistry. Is he capable of not only keeping the NDA together but expanding itIJ Mr Modi’s calculation is that if the BJP gets about 180 seats, the allies will come for the sake of power. The million dollar question is: Whether he can get this many seats. The Modi-magic is yet to be proved outside Gujarat. The party has almost no presence in the south and in the North-East. Even in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the party is not in a strong position.
Mr Modi’s friendship with AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa may be of help but he has to find other political parties to join the NDA. Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee have already indicated their disinclination while the Telugu Desam Party supremo Chandrababu Naidu will shrink away from aligning with a hardliner like Mr Modi. Of course, he can think of wooing smaller partiers like the Telengana Rashtra Samithi, but, he is yet to show his abilities to build alliance.
Fifth, what will be his poll strategyIJ It is a strange contradiction that the BJP cadres are enthused because of his hardline image while Mr Modi is talking of development. He might have sold this combination in Gujarat but will he be able to do so in the rest of the countryIJ His social media strategy may attract the educated class but what about the massesIJ Ironically, the same social media which vilified Mr Modi for the Godhra riots is now going all out to project him as a national leader. Mr Modi is depending on his novel campaign methods but will he commit the same mistakes which Pramod Mahajan did in 2004 with the ‘India Shining’ campaignIJ Also, India has several fiefdoms run by regional satraps. The poll strategy has to be region specific.
Mr Modi’s success depends on several factors. He seems to have mended his fence with the RSS. He also has the support of the corporate sector. His success also may depend upon how the Congress-led UPA chalks out its poll strategy. Mr Modi must not only market himself as a national leader but also project the BJP as a viable alternative. Congress-bashing alone is not going help.
Above all, Mr Modi has to shed his Godhra baggage. Politics is perception and he is perceived to be a Hindutva man. Finally, the electorate may get tired with a disunited BJP, a truncated NDA and disenchanted with the UPA and look for a third alternative consisting of regional satraps.