Tempting as they may be, high speed bullet trains are an expensive proposition. Even if foreign funds help set up the infrastructure, the price-conscious Indian passenger may not be willing to pay higher tariff, as the Delhi Airport Metro fiasco proves, writes RC ACHARYA
During his recent visit to Japan, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited investors to set up shop in India. He also promised them the ‘red carpet’ instead of the usual ‘red tape’. Knowing his keenness to introduce high speed trains, Japan Inc is expected to suitably respond in collaboration with the Japanese International Cooperation Agency, whose multi-crore loans have funded the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation.
The Japanese Shinkansen, popularly known as the bullet train network (as the nose of the driving cab resembles a bullet), was first introduced half a century ago. More similar to commuter trains rather than long-distance trains, the Shinkansen initially served the 500km-long Tokyo-Osaka section, carrying more than 160 million passengers a year, with over a dozen 14-car trains every hour, covering the distance in less than three hours, thereby making daily commute a possibility.
In Europe, similar high speed trains, known as Train à Grande Vitesse or TGV, also connect major cities — most of which are now only less than three hours away. They also provide overnight service between various European capitals, offering stiff competition to the aviation industry in city center-to-city center transit time.
Hurtling through the country side at over 250kmph, the high speed rail track has to be elevated and well-protected from trespassers, or else disaster is certain. While a surface-level rail high speed track may cost upto Rs10 core per km, the elevated track can cost more than Rs120 crore per km. Hence, the 520km Mumbai-Ahmedabad link can easily cost the investor as much as Rs60,000 crore.
Upgrading the entire 64,000km long Indian rail network is out of the question. Only a few segments that have the potential for high passenger traffic have been identified for this project. These include the Ahmedabad-Mumbai, Howrah-Haldia, New Delhi-Agra-Jhansi-Bhopal, Delhi-lucknow, Chennai-Bangalore-Mysore, Delhi-Amritsar, and Delhi-Chandigarh corridors.
Among these, the Ahmedabad-Mumbai segment already has 22 trains while Delhi-Amritsar has 32 daily trains. Most trains are packed to capacity, and therefore, they can generate the passenger volumes required to make the bullet train project financially viable in India.
So far, about half a dozen studies carried out over the last decade for an Indian roll have been for the high speed 250+kmph variety, built as an elevated track on a viaduct. But few of these projects have considered financial viability based not only on the projected volumes of passenger traffic, but also the paying capacity of the passenger. The bullet train will have a relatively higher tariff if it has to sustain itself as a profitable investment and not degenerate into a basket case, as has been the fate of the Delhi Airport Metro line.
The Ministry of Railways is also considering some low cost solutions. These usually have speeds lower than that of Japan’s Shinkansen, Europe’s TGV and even China’s high speed rail link. All of these run at more than 250kmph, and some even go as fast as 350kmph on short stretches.
In India, the cost of upgrading the track, rolling stock, locomotives and signalling systems to run trains on existing alignments will be much lower than the price tag of Rs150 crore per km, for the viaducts alone for the 250+kmph variety.
Moreover, the proposed low cost, high speed corridors can also be viewed as a socially desirable investment. They will help de-congest the metros, such as Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad and Mumbai, by spurring the development of Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities around the metros.
Indian Railways is looking at some short-term solutions such as increasing the speed of some of its premier trains, such as the Rajdhanis and Shatabdis, from 130kmph to a 160-200kmph, which could bring down transit time by 10 to 25 per cent.
This will also help to save the nation’s fuel bill, reduce air pollution with a more fuel-efficient mode of rail transport, reduce road congestion and connected accidents. In addition, there will also be a reduction of commuter fatigue — perhaps one of the biggest factors contributing to the increasing popularity of high speed train services in Japan, Europe and China.
However, selecting corridors for high speed rail services could degenerate into a political game of one-upmanship among various States and metros. The success of the bullet train project will ultimately depend on its business model, which will define its financial viability, attracting private investment in a joint venture with the state, which has been vigorously encouraged by the Planning Commission. In other words, success will depend on techno-economic factors rather than political considerations.
(The writer is a former Member, Railway Board)