The Government's foreign policy success can only be assessed in the coming months. But there is a welcome momentum now
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been shaping a pragmatic neighbourhood foreign policy for the past two months but will it work according to expectationsIJ Perhaps it is too early to talk of results, as it is not just the policy but also its implementation, which is key. As of now, the Ministry of External Affairs is going full steam to cultivate India’s neighbours, with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj personally making contacts to assure them of the new Government’s intentions. Prime Minister Modi himself has already visited Bhutan, and is expected to visit Nepal next week.
There are some who are critical of India’s neighbourhood policy, claiming it lacks vision. China is making inroads in the neighbourhood, which should cause concern to New Delhi. Mr Modi has set his eyes on correcting this. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was concentrating on improving ties with the West, particularly the US, rather than with those in India’s backyard. The new Government offers a fresh opportunity to approach things differently.
It stands to reason that Mr Modi wants to put his best foot forward. India is located in the middle of South Asia and shares land boundaries with all members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. Moreover, the SAARC countries are growing fast with an average growth rate of about eight per cent and trade within the region too has doubled in the past five years. In the power sector, India’s electricity grid is now connected to Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal. Trade under South Asian Free Trade Agreement could be as much as $85 billion.
Mr Modi began well on the international scene. Since he was a provincial politician, not much was known about his foreign policy vision. It was important for Mr Modi to start off on a positive note since he was perceived as a hardliner on security and foreign policy issues. Mr Modi won kudos for his unprecedented move to invite South Asian leaders for his swearing-in ceremony on May 26. He did not budge when Tamil Nadu protested the invite to Sri lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa. His meetings with the visiting dignitaries including the Pakistani Prime Minister were high on spirit. They were seen as proof of the new Government’s intent to engage with its immediate neighbours first.
Ms Swaraj’s first trip abroad was also in the neighbourhood — to Bangladesh. lots of misgivings were generated in Bangladesh in the run-up to the general election, when Mr Modi talked about illegal immigration from that country. Ms Swaraj tried to allay their fears but real progress will only be known when there is forward movement on the Teesta water sharing treaty, illegal immigration, endorsement of land boundary agreement and trade matters. Bangladesh has a genuine grievance about India not delivering on these agreements which have been held hostage to Indian domestic politics. What is required now is implementation of connectivity projects (road and rail) and upgrading border infrastructure for trade.
Ms Swaraj’s trip to Nepal last week is also connected to Mr Modi’s visit to the Himalayan kingdom next week. There are several important issues including the hydro-power projects and the extradition treaty, which need to be sorted out during Mr Modi’s visit. The Mahakali Treaty signed in 1996 also needs to progress.
Ms Swaraj is also expected to go to Myanmar soon for the meet of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. India’s relations with Myanmar are on the right track. Myanmar is India’s land bridge to the Asean
India is also expected to recommence Foreign Secretary level talks with Pakistan. No one expects this to be a breakthrough but some signal should emerge from the meeting. The India-Pakistan relation is too big to be resolved in one meeting but there could be improvement on trade relations.
The success of the Modi Government can only be assessed in the coming months. There is a momentum now, which should be seized by both sides. There are several long-pending issues with the neighbours. Mr Modi should address border and visa issues with Pakistan, expand trade relations with Bangladesh, address ethnic issues with Sri lanka and nudge Nepal in its democratic process and writing of the Constitution. Forging economic diplomacy with Bhutan and strengthening security issues with all neighbours are also important. These are difficult issues, but Mr Modi, with his large mandate, can succeed to a large extent, if he has the will.