It is the recent changes made within the organisation, and not so much the ministerial reshuffle, which offer insight into the party’s strategy
The Congress is clearly getting ready to face the 2014 lok Sabha poll after the much-expected reshuffle in the Union Council of Ministers this week. However, more important than the ministerial reshuffle are the changes made within the party itself. These changes were in fact expected soon after Mr Rahul Gandhi took over as Congress vice-president. Anyway, now that the teams to be led by Mr Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are in place to counter the onslaught of BJP mascot Narendra Modi, what is the message that comes out of this exerciseIJ
The Congress is trying to put its best foot forward. It has shown a united face while the BJP is still struggling to put its house in order as well as manage a truncated National Democratic Alliance. There is a clear Rahul Gandhi-stamp on the organisational re-jig. Party president Sonia Gandhi seems to have given her son a free hand. After all, if he is going to lead the Congress into battle, he should be allowed to choose his own generals.
But there is not much surprise in Mr Gandhi’s new team. He has chosen people who are considered to be close to him to fill the important positions. Spin-doctors in the Congress claim that importance is being given to those who can get elected while emphasising on a generational change. The number of spokespersons and secretaries within the party has now increased and the election committee is also in place.
Mr Gandhi has put his faith in people like Mr CP Joshi, Mr Mohan Prakash and Mr Madhusudan Mistry, who is emerging as his Man Friday and will be over-seeing the electorally-important State of Uttar Pradesh. Mr Ajay Maken has also been moved from his ministerial post and instead made the party’s communication in-charge. Along with Mr Digvijaya Singh, who will be handling party affairs in Andhra Pradesh, it is these people who will counter Mr Modi publicly.
The Congress leadership has realised that the key to its future lies within the organisation — and not within the Government since there is only so much it can do in the remaining few months. The party has also run out of new faces to experiment with within the regime, and is now merely accommodating individuals based on caste and other such considerations ahead of elections.
In fact, the changes made within the Union Council of Ministers do not even give any indications about the Government’s reforms process, which is likely to slow down in view of so many electoral considerations as well as the possibility of running a minority Government.
The Congress’s actual focus is on a few States like Andhra Pradesh (which contributed 33 seats to its kitty in 2009), Karnataka (where the party recently came back to power) and Rajasthan which will be going to the poll in the next few months.
However, the most important challenge before the Congress is the arithmetic needed to perform a hat-trick. It was Ms Gandhi who took the lead in 2004 to form the UPA and it is she who has been in charge of its political management all these years. The problem for the Congress is that it is being ruined by a truncated UPA.
Already, the party has lost two of its most important allies, the Trinamool Congress and the DMK. Before the 2014 poll, it is imperative that the Congress expands the alliance it leads by bringing in more members. The party has to go out of the way in luring more secular allies, and it is here that the problem lies.
In Bihar, for instance, there are visible signs of the Congress wooing the ruling JD(U) especially now that the latter has severed its ties with the NDA. However, it is not clear which way Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will go before the lok Sabha poll. He may come to some understanding with the Congress or he may choose to propose a non-Congress, non-BJP ‘third front’ or federal front.
Either way, the Congress must try to bring into the UPA’s fold those who have left the NDA, by following some sort of a give-and-take approach. This may be difficult but it should be tried. Finally, the party also has to keep the present UPA allies together while also exploring the possibility of luring back some of its old allies.
The next few months shall be politically interesting because the players are still contemplating their moves and counter-moves, and new political equations as well as fresh alliances are in the offing. How it all shapes the 2014 lok Sabha election will be a
fascinating phenomenon.