The coming by-election in Uttar Pradesh is a test of mettle for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the ruling Samajwadi Party in the State. The Congress is nowhere in the fight and the Bahujan Samaj Party has not fielded any candidate
Two main political rivals — namely the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party — are gearing up for another battle of the ballot in the crucial Uttar Pradesh by-election on September 13. The by-election would be held for 11 Assembly seats and one parliamentary constituency of Mainpuri that have been vacated after the lok Sabha election. The test is crucial for both the parties. For the Samajwadi Party, it is a battle for survival after it received an ignominious drubbing in the lok Sabha election; for the BJP it is a prestige issue because, of these 11 Assembly seats, 10 were won by the BJP in 2012 Assembly election, while the Rohaniaya seat, which is part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s parliamentary constituency of Varanasi, was won by its partner, the Apna Dal.
The election is important for the BJP because these have come at the backdrop of Uttarakhand by-poll early last month, where the BJP lost all the four seats. In neighbouring Bihar, the combine of Janata Dal(United) and RJD gave a tough fight to the BJP. The results of these two States have given the so-called secular parties a hope that they can make a dent in the BJP’s vote-share in Uttar Pradesh that went up to 42 per cent in the lok Sabha election.
In the last general election, the BJP and its ally Apna Dal had won 73 seats out of the 80 on offer. If this victory is translated into Assembly seats the BJP was clear winner in 368 Assembly segments out of 403. Theoretically speaking, in this scenario it would not be difficult for the BJP to win all the 11 seats in the by-election. But, as it is said, there is always a difference between theory and practice — the prediction of the outcome of a poll is not that easy.
The political scenario in Uttar Pradesh is completely different from that in Uttarakhand and Bihar. The Bahujan Samaj Party that failed to win even a single seat in the last lok Sabha election has decided not to contest the by-poll, saying the ruling party “plays mischief in by-elections”. Thus the field is left open for the Samajwadi Party and the BJP. The Congress has also announced its candidates but it is nowhere in the direct contest. The RlD, that has its presence in western Uttar Pradesh, has also decided against contesting the by-election.
The absence of the BSP has made the political battle interesting in Uttar Pradesh, as all eyes would now be on the Dalit votes. The Samajwadi Party leaders believe that in the absence of the BSP, Dalit votes will go to the BJP. In the last lok Sabha election, Dalits had voted in favour of the BJP, and the trend is expected to be replicated in the by-election. The Dalits are traditionally against the backward community in Uttar Pradesh. The politico-social trend shows that backward communities like Ahirs (Yadav) and Kurmis are the tormentors of Dalits. Ms Mayawati and Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav have strengthened their political base by sensitising their respective vote-bank of Dalits and backward castes respectively.
In the absence of the BSP candidates, Ms Mayawati has asked its cadre to vote for independent candidates in their respective constituencies. This appeal may not work wonders because the BSP cadre cannot align with independent candidates. In this scenario, Dalits will not vote for the Samajwadi Party. Neither will they go with the Congress which has been reduced to a fringe political identity. The only option left for them is the BJP, and the party has started eyeing this crucial vote segment. The upper caste is still solidly behind the BJP. Besides, people are facing the brunt for lawlessness. The riots in Meerut, Saharanpur and Moradabad are clear reminders that the Samajwadi Party Government has failed to stem the crime rate. Besides, incidents like rape, kidnapping, murder and theft are reported regularly, raising a big question mark on the resolve of the Akhilesh Yadav Government to check crime.
Then there are frequent power outages that have enraged the common man. They are out on the streets fighting pitched battles with the police. In cities like Gonda, lucknow, Sitapur, Noida and Kanpur, people have set sub-stations on fire and held electricity department employees as hostages. Instead of finding a solution to these problems, the Chief Minister blames the Centre for not giving enough electricity to the State.
“lawlessness and lack of development has made the BJP’s work easy. People want the Chief Minister to deliver, but here the Chief Minister is busy blaming either the previous BSP Government or the NDA Government at the Centre for all ills. People are not impressed. They want result and the State Government has failed to deliver”, BJP spokesperson Vijay Bahadur Pathak said.
The BJP may be complacent but the fact is that it has everything to lose in this by-election. It has 11 seats and if the Samajwadi Party wins even one seat, the latter becomes the gainer. What will happen if the BJP loses seats once represented by leaders like Kalraj Mishra and Uma BhartiIJ If the Apna Dal loses Rohaniya, a question would be raised on Mr Modi’s influence, as this seat lies in Varanasi.
Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav knows that and, therefore, over 40 Ministers of the Samajwadi Party Government are camping in different constituencies, silently working in favour of the party. Party insiders claim that they are sure to win four seats.
But the Samajwadi Party is facing serious problems from within, and the main concern is Mr Azam Khan. While several leaders of the party have started campaigning for the by-election, there is a deafening silence on the role of Mr Khan, as the party is undecided on whether to use him or not. Party sources say Mr Khan was still sulking. This is proved from the fact that Mr Khan has not come to the party office for the last few days. The party does not know what role Mr Khan will play in the by-election.
It is now almost a month that Mr Khan has been sulking after it became evident that Mr Amar Singh may get a re-entry into the party. He did not attend a function of the Urdu Academy held at the Chief Minister’s residence last month and also boycotted a function organised to celebrate the birth anniversary of Janeshwar Mishra. He is also miffed at the way the Government cancelled the Shia Waqf Board election at the last minute.
Any which way one looks at it, the by-election is a make-or-break one for the Samajwadi Party. The by-election will be held in Saharanpur, Bijnor, Thakudwara, Noida, Nighasan, lucknow East, Hamirpur, Charkhari, Sirathu, Balha and Rohaniya Assembly seats. One-fourth of these Assembly constituencies have a dominance of Muslims, particularly in western Uttar Pradesh.
In the last lok Sabha election, Mr Khan had toured these areas extensively. In one of the rallies in Greater Noida, he had raked up a communal angle over the Kargil victory. And this time he is nowhere in the scene. Will this help the Samajwadi PartyIJ