The Akali-BJP coalition is ruling Punjab. The BJP is ruling in Goa. Uttarakhand and Manipur are Congress-ruled States. Uttar Pradesh is run by the SP. All of them are face anti-incumbency in their respective States.
The fight will be intense in Uttar Pradesh especially for the BJP, which won 72 of the 80 lok Sabha seats in the State. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to bid for power in 2019, his magic must continue in Uttar Pradesh. However, local issues will dominate the poll, and the big fight will be between the SP and the BSP.
Still, Uttar Pradesh is top priority for Modi. To repeat the 2014 lok Sabha performance, he needs good luck as the BJP’s track record in the State has been dismal in the past two decades. Nevertheless, enthused by its Assam win, the BJP is considering a local face as its chief ministerial candidate and also concentrating on local issues. Keshav Prasad Maurya from the backward community has been elected as the State BJP president. The party is also sticking to its Ram Mandir agenda as well as indulging in much Congress-bashing, which may not help as the main challenge comes from the SP and the BSP.
The Congress is fighting for survival and facing a leadership crisis. The party has lost its core voters including the Muslims and the Dalits. The party is practically non-existent in Uttar Pradesh where it had ruled for decades. It has no second-rung leaders while imported senior leaders like Beni Prasad Verma quit the party and moved to the SP. The Congress has appointed poll strategist Prashant Kishore, who worked for Modi in the 2014 lok Sabha election, but Kishore does not have a magic wand.
The SP is depending on its development work done in the past five years; it also hopes to secure the Muslim and Yadav votes. Its biggest threat comes from anti-incumbency and its failure on the law and order front. The SP is on a weaker ground than earlier in launching attacks against the BSP, and also in attracting Muslim votes.
On the other hand, BSP chief Mayawati is working hard to come back to power. She has planned to go solo — counting on the return of Muslims to the BSP fold, and a Dalit-Muslim consolidation that might also influence anti-BJP voters to look up to her.
Minor players like the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal might test their political strength in Uttar Pradesh in alliance with Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya lok Dal. Following their success of their grand alliance in the Bihar polls, they are optimistic.
In Punjab, the Akali-BJP combine has been in power for two terms and anti-incumbency is clearly evident. The entry of the AAP is threatening both the Opposition Congress and the ruling coalition amidst reports that the AAP might do well. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal will play a key role in both Punjab and Goa, and later in Gujarat. He has already launched his Goa campaign with a big rally in Panaji. Kejriwal’s strategy is to expand to the States where the BJP and the Congress are in a direct fight, and project AAP as an alternative as he did in Delhi.
It is not sure which way Uttarakhand will go after the courts restored the rule of the Congress after a floor test last month. The fight is between the Congress and the BJP. Manipur is not looking good for the Congress with dissidence and indiscipline dogging the party.
The 2017 elections are important for the BJP. For the Congress, political threat comes not only from the BJP, but also from the regional satraps. If it loses Manipur and Uttarakhand, the party will be left with Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram. The BJP is eyeing Meghalaya and Mizoram after its triumph in Assam.
Above all, to push its luck in the 2017 presidential contest, the BJP needs to fare well in the next year’s Assembly polls. The party falls short of 1.85 lakh votes required to win the prestigious battle that involves an electoral college of 10.98 lakh votes. A strong show in Uttar Pradesh may provide the party the leeway needed to push its own nominee.