During the upcoming SAARC yatra, S Jaishankar may have to convince the neighbours about India’s continuing pursuit of regional integration and to hear them out patiently to understand their expectations and fears about perceived role India is setting out for itself in the region
Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar will embark on a SAARC yatra next month. On February 13, soon after Prime Minister Modi called to wish leaders of cricketing SAARC countries participating in the ongoing World Cup, he tweeted about sending the Foreign Secretary on a tour of all the SAARC countries, including Pakistan.
The Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson clarified the same day that in line with the “multi-layered diplomacy” that the PM has been practicing, he chose to use cricket as “a metaphor of connectivity” to give yet another push to regional diplomacy. The spokesperson was categorical that it was purely a follow-up on India’s commitment in Kathmandu to re-energise the SAARC process. The yatra would reassure India’s neighbours of its intention to fulfil its obligations in this regard. However, it could hardly be mistaken that under a broader SAARC initiative, there was an opportunity to discuss bilateral issues, and in particular, take a fresh look at the stalled India-Pakistan dialogue.
Modi’s vision: Raised expectations
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated his interest in reinvigorating India’s neighbourhood policy. It was quite evident when he invited leaders from the SAARC countries — after leading his party to a decisive win the elections — to attend his swearing-in ceremony, which provided him with an opportunity to build a personal rapport with leaders of neighbouring states and craft a new beginning in his approach to the neighbourhood.
The visit by SAARC leaders also demonstrated their willingness to play ball with the new Indian Prime Minister. For long, there was a view that South Asia was not given due priority in India’s foreign policy. Many analysts referred to disinclination of the Indian Prime Ministers in the past to undertake visits to the neighbourhood. For example, the Indian Prime Minister visited Bangladesh after 12 years in 2011. Prime Minister Modi visited Nepal after a gap of 17 years. There has been no visit by Indian Prime Minister to Pakistan since 1999. Similarly, no Indian Prime Minister has visited Sri lanka since 1987. In spite of the emphasis accorded to neighbourhood in foreign office literature, countries in the region did not receive proportionate attention of the highest leadership in the country.
Quite expectedly, Modi’s emphasis on the region has raised the expectations of people about the prospects of regional cooperation. There are high hopes that India will shun its cautious and reluctant approach and take steps to address bilateral issues with neighbours, provide greater market access, participate in infrastructure development, and further regional economic integration.
Continuity rather than break
True, Modi has given a fresh impetus to the SAARC process with his signature style of communication. However, this did not mean that India had so far neglected its neighbourhood. India renewed its emphasis on strengthening its relationship with its neighbours after the end of the cold war. The articulation of the Gujural doctrine, not quite popular with the foreign office, aimed at recalibrating India’s approach to the neighbourhood whereby India would give “all that it can in good faith and trust” to most of its smaller neighbours without asking for “reciprocity”. Even if the doctrine was not invoked later, its main features continued to guide India’s neighbourhood policy.
That is why India has been quite supportive of infrastructure development in the neighbourhood. This is evident from the $1 billion credit-line to Bangladesh out of which $200 million was converted to grant, developmental aid to Afghanistan to the tune of $2 billion, restoration of Colombo-Jaffna railway link, rehabilitation work in post-war Sri lanka, multifaceted developmental engagement in Nepal, and investment in hydro-electric infrastructure in Bhutan. India’s emphasis has been on building “development partnerships” which indicates a welcome shift from the excessive security-centricism that characterised its engagement during the Cold War years and contributed to mistrust and suspicion.
Nevertheless, Modi’s decisive style backed by a strong electoral mandate in the parliamentary elections has breathed new life into India’s regional engagement. The weaknesses of coalition politics during the tenure of the previous Government had robbed India’s neighbourhood policy of its credibility.
Constructive bilateralism to boost regionalism
Prime Minister Modi’ has sought to revitalise regional integration by all means. He has made it clear that India wants to improve its relationship with all its neighbours at a bilateral level even as efforts to boost regional cooperation will continue on a parallel track. Thus, the symbolism of Prime Minister Modi’s first foreign visits to Bhutan and Nepal, was not lost on India’s neighbours ever since he has come to power. Through powerful oratory, he articulated India’s willingness to be a developmental change-agent in the region.
In Bhutan, he spoke of India’s commitment to help Bhutan tide over its problems. He appreciated Bhutan’s bid to secure development by protecting its environment. In Nepal, he reiterated India’s support at all levels and sought to dispel fears of India’s interference in Nepal’s internal politics. He effectively persuaded Nepal to shun its suspicions about India and capitalise on India’s energy needs by allowing Indian investments in the power sector. Following his visit in August 2014, the two countries finalised the long-debated Power Trade Agreement (PTA) in September 2014. Subsequently, the Investment Board Nepal (IBN) and the Indian developer Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam limited (SJVNl) signed the Project Development Agreement (PDA) on a 900 megawatt Arun III Hydropower project in November 2014.
Efforts are underway to settle bilateral issues with Bangladesh, i.e., the land Border Agreement and Teesta water sharing. Despite internal political turmoil in Bangladesh, India has clung fast to its developmental engagement and worked with the elected government as well as other democratic forces to continually improve and sustain its bilateral engagement with Bangladesh. With Sri lanka, the relationship has taken a turn for the better with the new government in Colombo eager to take advantage of Modi’s regional initiatives. The signing of a slew of agreements in the wake of President Maithripala Sirisena’s visit earlier this week signals a new momentum in bilateral ties, and the lurking fear of China expanding its strategic footprints in the island nation has been pushed to the background. Relationship with Maldives is on an even keel, though anxieties about slow Chinese penetration into the strategic marine space around the islands remain.
Problem areas
Pakistan poses a critical challenge in Modi’s policy of proactive engagement with India’s neighbours. Nevertheless, there has been some show of nerve in his approach there too. His Government’s decision to stall dialogue with Pakistan scheduled in early August 2014, taking exception to Pakistan High Commissioner’s meeting with separatists ahead of bilateral talks, was criticised by many analysts abroad. However, at the domestic level, the snub was viewed rather in an agnostic manner. The adversarial texture of Indo-Pak relationship, together with the declining power-potential of the Nawaz Government in Islamabad, and the spoiler effect of the Pakistan Army in the shape of shelling across the loC and the international border along Jammu & Kashmir led many to back Modi’s tough policy vis-à-vis Pakistan.
Similarly, the relationship of trust between Afghanistan and India seemed to be dented somewhat by Afghan Government’s efforts to build bridges with the Pakistan military in quest of political reconciliation with Taliban. However, the Government has made it amply clear that it has political will to stay engaged with its developmental efforts to bring peace, prosperity and stability to Afghanistan.
The sub-regional route
India has also enabled multiple sub-regional tracks of cooperation to complete its regionalisation efforts. For example, in a significant move the Joint Working group consisting of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Indian and Nepal, held their second meeting in January 2015. These countries have decided to take steps to strengthen cooperation on Water Resources Management and Power/Hydropower and on Connectivity and Transit. Apart from this, India is already part of trilateral cooperation arrangements among Bangladesh, Bhutan and India on Brahmaputra, and Bangladesh, Nepal and India on the Ganges. Similarly, trilateral India-Sri lanka-Maldives maritime cooperation initiative is likely to forge mutually beneficial security understanding and contribute to regional peace and prosperity.
Good luck, Secretary!
Against this setting, the new Foreign Secretary has his task well cut out. During the upcoming familiarisation trip which has been a catchy title of a “yatra”, he may have to both speak up to convince his interlocutors about India’s continuing pursuit of regional integration and to hear them out patiently to understand their expectations and fears about perceived role India is setting out for itself to play in the region in the coming days.
last but not the least, one would also like to wish him good luck for his trip to Pakistan as part of this yatra. The media has (unfairly) touted it as a disguised effort to restart dialogue with Pakistan. If it materialises, so be it. While, in all likelihood, any effort to restart talks is not going to remain unchallenged (by spoliers — you-know-who), some lowering of Indo-Pak tension may have salutary effect on the process of regional economic integration.
(Dr Smruti S Pattanaik and Dr Ashok K Behuria are Fellows in IDSA, New Delhi. The views expressed here are their own.)