President Dilma Rousseff’s political trouble began in early 2015, when allegations surfaced that she has indulged in political graft and bribery while chairing the Petrobras Board of Directors. It is also alleged that Rousseff had used funds from Petrobras to support her second term presidential election campaign in 2014. However, taking into account the strength of the Opposition in Brazil and their dubious record of corruption in public life, Rousseff is all set to retain her presidency at least for the time being
The current political crisis in Brazil is centred around a multi-billion dollar scandal probe, popularly known as ‘lava Jato’ or Operation Car Wash, an investigation launched by Judge Srgio Moro as early as in March 2014. It is focused on Brazil’s huge State-controlled oil company Petrobras’ contracting process under which its executives and Government officials allegedly conspired to award massively inflated and lucrative contracts to companies working for it. President Dilma Rousseff’s political trouble began in early 2015, when allegations surfaced that she has indulged in political graft and bribery while chairing the Petrobras Board of Directors from 2003 to 2010. It is also alleged that Rousseff had used funds from Petrobras to support her second term presidential election campaign in 2014. Besides the President, top politicians from almost all parties and billionaire businessmen, the most important personality who is being implicated in the Operation Car Wash is Brazil’s ex-President lula. The political climax of the investigation came, when lula was brought to a local police station on March 4, 2016, under the warrant of a judge, called ‘Conducao coercitiva’ (Bench warrant) which implies that a person is commanded to appear before authorities to give testimony. The prosecutors allege that lula had received massive illicit benefits from the kickback schemes of Petrobras while he was in office from 2003 to 2010. What investigators have found is that this is perhaps the biggest money laundering and political corruption scandal in Brazil’s history so far.
The Brazilian political fiasco has reached a critical stage. Rousseff is receiving renewed calls from international observers and millions of Brazilians to step down from office. The latest public opinion polls conducted by Datafolha Institute indicate that 68 per cent of her countrymen want her to quit. But despite having constant trouble in managing the top political hot seat, she has redoubled her effort to hold on, saying she “will never resign”.
The current political crisis is reminiscent of another historic street march more than half a century ago which ensued in a military coup of March 31, 1964 to Brazil.
How it all beganIJ
More or about a decade ago, Brazil, the largest country of South America was revered as a “role model” for the rest of the developing nations in the continent. Its economy was moving upward and a huge trade volume of raw materials and commodities with China helped the country come out of the long economic slowdown. In fact, Brazil had a long-drawn agenda which propelled its economic growth with high-tech industries, extensive training and development of its engineering professionals, etc. These measures led the nation to become a true leader of the developing world. The most remarkable feature of this period was an innovative welfare programme known as “Bolsa Familia” (Family Allowance) with its sole emphasis on nutrition and education that spearheaded the fastest improvement in the social and economic sectors. Astonishingly, “Bolsa Familia” fought a crusade through decades old stagnant Brazilian economy to witness the light of the day; it lifted nearly 40 million people out of poverty. Consequently, this success translated into a second-term electoral victory for lula. This further helped in bringing his protégé Dilma Rousseff to power to continue the reign of Worker’s Party.
Despite having the gains of the last decade, millions of protesters across 300 cities in Brazil have upped the ante against lula and Rousseff, demanding her immediate resignation and a jail term for her mentor. Majority of the protesters are middle class whites, who have long enmity towards the PT and for its populist left-wing economic policies. Also a very disturbing sign of the protest is that a section of demonstrators are raising slogans for return of the military rule in Brazil. But thankfully, today’s military in Brazil is contented with their regular job, displaying no ambition to play an active role in politics. Despite Brazil’s rich and the poor living cheek-by-jowl for decades, the gap between them has become wider enough to pose a serious blow to the survival of the country’s political system in case the anti-Government protests prolong. This and many other protest movements in the recent past have brought to light the deep fissures already developed between the rich and the poor, the black and the white. On the other hand, the pro-Government protesters comprise people belonging to mixed-race and working class who have mainly benefitted from social welfare schemes launched by the PT in the past. To them, the anti-Government rallies calling for the impeachment of the President is equivalent to an attempted coup against a popularly elected Government of the country. Both the demonstrating factions display their sharp differences in the colours they are wearing as well — those carrying green & yellow Brazil’s flag and banners calling for President’s ouster; and those wearing red supporting the Government and its allies.
Could she be really impeachedIJ
Taking into account the strength of the Opposition in Brazil and their dubious record of corruption in public life, possibly Rousseff is all set to retain her presidency at least for the time being. It seems there are only three possible exits for Rousseff from the Plantalto, the presidential palace. First of all, it would be the sole responsibility of the Justice Moro-led investigation team to prove that the President herself has obstructed or blocked the Petrobras investigation by all possible means. Although a Senator belonging to her party claims that she has obstructed the investigation process, allegations are yet to be proved in the court of law. Apart from this, her deliberate attempt to safeguard lula from the prosecution trial may surely embolden grounds for impeachment. Second, the country’s top electoral court (TSE) may call for a fresh Presidential poll provided it could come to the conclusion that Rousseff’s 2014 re-election campaign was funded by bribes received from the Petrobras scandal. It is a cumbersome process which might take considerably a longer time. The TSE has traditionally turned a blind eye to campaign finance violations in the past, and over a period of three decades, it has taken action against only a few politicians of lower order. Even if it takes a decision to remove Rousseff, the decision of the TSE could be appealed in the Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) which may not agree with the TSE. Third, Rousseff may honorably step down on her own before she is forced to step down through the established constitutional mechanism of the country. It seems quite unlikely at the moment.
Apart from the third option, the rest of the two possibilities for removing Rousseff might either be difficult or ineffective as the time passes by. Though the differences between the Right and the left are all out on the street, the move to “Fora Dilma” or ‘“Dilma out” may not be successful as the Opposition is widely polarised and too tainted to vigorously pursue the issue. In the event of her departure, Vice-President Michel Temer, the leader of the Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (PMDB), would take over as the President as per the constitutional provisions. Unfortunately, there are allegations pending against every single politician in the presidential succession: Vice-President Temer, Chamber President Eduardo Cunha, Senate President Renan Calheiros, STF President Ricardo lewandowski, as well as Senator Aecio Neves, Rousseff’s rival in 2014 presidential election. All of them are directly or indirectly implicated in the Petrobras scandal. Interestingly, out of a total of 594 members of the Brazilian Congress, 352 are currently facing criminal cases. Therefore, Rousseff’s impeachment might open an opportunity for the voters to choose a new President (most probably a tainted politician), but the same old corrupt and criminal politicians would continue to rule the country’s Congress till their term ends in 2019. Thus, she could fairly claim legitimacy to continue in office as none of the allegations made against her justified the impeachment immediately. Indeed impeachment is more of a political game played carefully than a purely legal one. The ruling PT has already created a strong popular narrative about coup mongering (golpismo) of the Opposition parties against the Rousseff Government, particularly targeting PSDB and the DEM that had their historical ties with the past authoritarian regimes of Brazil. The probe against the ruling coalition and lula is termed as a “politicised probe” by many independent observers. Also there is strong evidence to suggest that politicians have tried to influence the ongoing investigation process. In fact, the head of the Impeachment Committee has suggested that the mood of the street protesters should be carefully assessed by the Congressmen concerned while deliberating on the charges against the President. This simply suggests that it is a ploy to oust an unpopular elected leader by the Opposition. Rousseff built one more ring of protection by inducting lula as her Chief of Staff on March 16; lula would surely help the President survive. lula being the Chief of the Staff (equivalent to a Minister rank) is enjoying partial immunity from immediate prosecution, and he could only be tried by the Supreme Court. Finally, the lava Jato suspects are given extra and crucial mileage by the judiciary while flouting the legal norms in the process of investigation. Justice Moro has released the recorded conversations between lula and his associates, including President Rousseff. This clearly violates an established judicial norm that only the Supreme Court may disclose such conversations in case one of the parties (currently the President) has legal immunity. This all would make Rousseff’s stay longer unless an extraordinary mass mobilisation takes place to oust her.
The only fear is that if this investigation is watered down or somehow managed politically to cover up the “entire episode” through smart manoeuvres (it seems so till now), the same old political and the business elite would continue ruling the sixth largest economy of the world, help entrenching corruption and misrule the emerging rule of law in Brazil. But very cautiously Rousseff once acknowledged in early 2014 that “this (scandal) may change the country for ever”. So let’s wait and watch what “Fora Dilma” awaits Brazil!
(The writer is an independent political analyst based in Delhi)