After J Jayalalithaa’s death, Tamil Nadu is going through a difficult political phase. Which way the developments turn, can only be speculated. But one thing is for sure — power will be the glue to keep the AIADMK united
Can the two factions of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) re-unite and continue to be relevant in Tamil NaduIJ Almost 75 days after the split in the party, the AIADMK Amma (led by Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami) and the AIADMK Puratchi Thalaivi Amma (led by former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam) have set up committees for merger talks. Even if the merger takes place after hard negotiations, can the party survive till the next electionIJ
The unity move came after both the groups realised that united they win and divided they sink. The EPS faction found that the Sasikala clan was becoming a liability. People were fed up after the Income Tax raided AIADMK Minister Vijaya Baskar’s house. To top it all, the Sasikala group was bribing the voters for the RK Nagar by-election, which has now been countermanded.
The future is uncertain because the Panneerselvam faction asserted that the merger can take place only after the EPS faction dumps both the aunt and the nephew. Fearing that, Sasikala’s nephew Dinakaran might stake claim for his chair, EPS is only too glad to go along. Interestingly, neither Sasikala nor Dinakaran had put up any resistance about the ouster. Perhaps they treat this as a strategic retreat rather than political oblivion.
Tamil Nadu is going through a political churning after the death of J Jayalalithaa in December last year. She is partly responsible for the present state of affairs as she had neither groomed nor named anyone as her successor. Her mentor, MG Ramachandran too did the same, but Jayalalithaa, who claimed his legacy, was a charismatic leader.
Even though the party split after MGR’s death in 1987, and his wife VN Janaki took over, the Jayalalithaa faction emerged victorious, winning 27 seats in the 1989 polls while Janaki won just two. Jayalalithaa had understood that to win the polls she needed to mobilise the anti-Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) votes. Seeing the ground reality, Janaki left politics and Jayalalithaa was able to unite the two factions.
This year the party has split again. But the situation is different. For one thing, there is no charismatic leader in the AIADMK in whose name the party can win the next elections and Panneerselvam is not Jayalalithaa. Jayalalithaa’s companion Sasikala’s bid to take over the party failed after Panneerselvam revolted and the court verdict sent her to jail for four years.
Money is with Sasikala, who is in jail and her plan to rule the party from the prison, through Dinakaran has failed. Dinakaran allegedly attempted to bribe the Election Commission of India officials to secure the two leaves symbol of the AIADMK.
The unity move came as an opportunity as well as a dilemma for both the factions. Though they may get Cabinet berths, there is apprehension that they may be swamped by the EPS group. Also, the OPS faction would like to have some clarity about the ouster of the Sasikala clan. After all, his revolt is against Sasikala. As for EPS, this was an opportunity to get out of the clutches of the Sasikala clan.
Second, once the Sasikala issue is settled, the question then would be: Who will be the Chief MinisterIJ Should the present Chief Minister EPS continue or the dethroned Chief Minister OPS get back his chairIJ This is tricky and needs to be decided.
Third, the Assembly has a strong Opposition led by the DMK, unlike the 1989 scenario, where the Opposition strength was negligible. Moreover, although the DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi is out of action, his son MK Stalin, who is now the working president of the party, has been active in taking on the Government. Though there are other Opposition leaders too who can make noise.
Fourth, neither Panneerselvam nor Palaniswami has proved hisgovernance capabilities. For instance, a delegation of farmers had been camping in Delhi for almost 40 days now, seeking relief for their parched fields. The State Government did little to mitigate their sufferings. Panneerselvam did show some enterprise to contain the Jallikattu agitation, but it was with support from the Centre. He did not show any initiative when he was the Chief Minister thrice before.
Fifth, neither OPS nor EPS can provide the kind of leadership needed to satisfy the party cadres. It will be difficult for the AIADMK to attract workers or voters with the aspirations of the young people changing.
Sixth, whoever is the Chief Minister, he has to be on the right side of the Centre in view of the fragility of the party. OPS is said to have good relationship with Delhi and EPS is also trying to cultivate the BJP. While the BJP claims that it has no role in the unification of the AIADMK, it is clear that the BJP would like to deal with a united AIADMK minus Sasikala clan. The BJP would like to have the support of the AIADMK in the Rajya Sabha where the party is in a minority for legislative measures and also for the upcoming presidential election, where the BJP-led NDA needs about 25,000 votes.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)