Marawi in South Philippines has suddenly become the centre of jehadi struggle in the island nation. It is widely believed that Islamists from Mosul, Chechnya, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Afghanistan and various parts of Africa have descended in large numbers in this restive Filipino region. Their ultimate aim is to establish a chapter of Islamic State (ISIS) in South East Asia. Now for about three months since the end of May this year, the Filipino forces are battling to clear the city from the jehadis. President Rodrigo Duterte has already declared “martial law” and now taking all possible steps to flush out the hiding terrorists from the city.
What incentives have suddenly turned this island nation into a safe haven for ISISIJ Who are these IslamistsIJ Will they be capable enough to establish an Asian caliphate in the PhilippinesIJ How President Duterte will handle this threat to his countryIJ
Marawi is actually a Muslim majority city, which falls in the province of Mindanao. And, Mindanao has a long history of conflict with the mainland. This directly offers a fertile ground for another offensive against Manila. And this time, unfortunately the global jehadis with the connivance of the local militias have come together to turn the poor island into a caliphate. This all have happened as the immediate fall of Mosul and Raqqa have stoked fear in the minds of the surviving jehadis and they have been looking for a suitable site for preaching their monstrous ideology.
The global terror experts say that as the heat of the coalition forces, backed by the US, falls upon the self-styled caliph Abu bakr al Baghdadi and his followers, it is likely that the Islamists will try hard to escape, fight back (wherever possible), return to their homelands, launch wolf attacks, and use conflict zones around the world as their fresh hideouts. As Mindanao’s background has become a referral point for ISIS, it may help establishing an epicentre of the caliphate for the entire Southeast Asia. Though this has been advocated by a sizeable number of experts, they all are either downplaying or ignoring the very fact that no jehadi training camps in Mindanao had ever permanently used beyond their tactical expediencies. It is true that in the past such camps were founded in this region, but there was no sign of a persistent linkage with the global terror groups or any immediate intention to convert the zone into a permanent terror hub.
All these jehadis are a mix of both locals and a host of international terrorists coming from various conflict zones of the world. To begin with, the battle for Marawi began only when the Filipino Government received a message that Isnilon Hapilon, the leader of a notorious kidnap-for-ransom group “Abu Sayyaf” which pledged allegiance to ISIS three years back, is hiding there. Interestingly, in return ISIS quickly proclaimed him the “Emir” of the Philippine province of its caliphate. What really shocked Duterte was that when the Government forces went there in the island town to fight Hapilon, hundreds of fighters came out from nowhere and challenged the former. This clearly shows that rebels around Hapilon were already in a combat mood and they had the power to take over the city. Along with Hapilon, the Maute group, which is now at the centre of the fight, is based in lanao del Sur, the province of which Marawi is the capital. The group is fast recruiting young people even from Mindanao State University. Some reports say that the two Maute brothers had studied in West Asia and had strong links with the jehadis in Indonesia. But many say that if the Filipino army carefully proceeds, it might be the end of the Maute group and the rising terror factory of Hapilon.
Whether the jehadis would be able to capture the province and whether they are capable of heralding an Islamic caliphate are serious questions for now. But precisely, Hapilon and his associates, assisted by all sorts of criminal elements of the island province, have raised alarm bells for the Philippines in particular and Southeast Asia in general. Many more countries, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Maldives, Sri lanka, Bangladesh, Thailand, etc, might fall into such traps. But it may so happen that Hapilon and his gang may not be able to exploit Marawi the way Baghdadi masterminded things in the war-torn Iraq and Syria. Indeed, armed conflict in Mindanao is a volatile mix of local political animosities and clan rivalries, and it had a serious role of deep religious narratives rooted in the history of the country. Since the Spanish colonial era, the Philippines had largely witnessed the presence of collusion between local officials, indigenous tribal leaders of the region and clan-backed militias in so-called organised criminal activities. Therefore, Mindanao had a strong history of criminal networks which at times posed threat to the colonial state much before the birth of the independent Philippines.
Further, unlike the austere life-style displayed by Baghdadi, the Filipino rebels like that of the Aby Sayyaf group had a history of solely depending on organised criminal activities for their survival. This gang after the death of its leader Abdurajak Abubakar Janajalani almost lost its ideological moorings and turned towards gang wars for earning their livelihood. Basically they have made themselves extortionists who hardly look for anything unlike an Islamic caliphate designed by Baghdadi in Mosul and in Raqqa. Frankly speaking, they will not have rich reservoirs of oil and other resources for their survival the way ISIS received. Thus, the Hapilon group may not have a future like Baghdadi. Also, the Philippines is not immediately connected to any other neighbouring Muslim countries through land borders the manner in which we see a strong connectivity between Syria and Iraq. In fact, this contributed a lot to the development of the ISIS network. The entire zone has become a living empire of jehadism particularly after the occupation of Iraq by the American forces in 2003. Such syndromes and allied factors of long established dissensions typically do not exist in the Philippines.
Currently, Marawi is under martial law and the Filipino army is struggling to eliminate the combatants from the island. Though the mopping up operations are on, the terrorists are actively using human shields across the city so as to limit the army’s room for manoeuvre. Hence the battle is far from over and it may take longer than what President Duterte recently predicted. Meanwhile tens of thousands of evacuees languish in Government refugee camps, which are poorly managed. Now what is looming large over this small city is that for the locals there is nothing left and they have almost no home to return. This is because almost the whole town has been flattened in the fierce fight between the Islamists and the Filipino forces.
Whatsoever, the sudden rise of ISIS in the Philippines is a disturbing signal. As international terror experts such as Rohan Gunaratna commented last year, “It is very likely that (Aby Sayyaf) will declare a satellite of caliphate in the coming year”, indicating that “once that is done, it will be much more difficult to dismantle these groups”.
There are media reports that nearly 1,200 South East Asians have already joined ISIS in the West Asia. Therefore many global terror analysts say that South Philippines could act as a point of lure, offering both the fresh and old terrorists a foolproof platform for high-level attacks across Asia. With this development in Marawi, some ISIS-inspired groups might try to upstage their strengths thinking that their caliphate is coming nearer to them only. A report submitted by ISIS Study Group of the Center for a New American Security based in Washington DC says that the Indonesian operatives have already begun transporting Syria-trained tutors for advanced weapons and training grounds to Mindanao. Also it was recorded that jehadis from Morocco and Uighurs of China have already descended in Southern Mindanao for spearheading the conflict.
Now, what Pangulo (as the President is referred to in the local Filipino language) will do will show the future of the trouble-torn Mindanao and Marawi. Of course, he will have all the good reasons to extend the current emergency martial law till the end of this year. But some of his allies in the Government want it to continue for five years i.e. till the end of Duterte’s presidential term. It is largely felt across the Philippines that under such martial laws it becomes easier for the army to conduct search operations and prevent sudden terror attacks like the current one. The army makes it clear that it has no intention to govern Mindanao by creating a permanent environment for martial law. That is why it is handing over the terror suspects to the country’s civilian courts. But the Opposition parties and human rights group say that martial law undermines accountability of the Government in trouble-torn region such as Mindanao wherein Duterte needs to be more transparent. And the Opposition in the Philippines finds it really difficult to trust an avowed authoritarian like Duterte and his long-term intentions in politics.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)
Filipinos accused of links to Marawi siege to be freed
Philippine prosecutors have dismissed rebellion complaints against 59 men who were stopped by police and army troops at two checkpoints in the south and accused of attempting to join Islamic State (ISIS)-linked terrorists who laid siege to a southern city.
Senior Government prosecutor Peter Ong on Thursday said the complaints filed by the military against the Muslim men were dismissed because of a lack of strong evidence, and authorities were ordered to free all the men. “It is clear that respondents were not committing the crime of rebellion or any crime at the time of their arrests,” Ong and two other prosecutors said in their findings, a copy of which was seen by The Associated Press.
The men, who travelled in two big groups, may have sparked the suspicion of troops and police at checkpoints because of the Marawi siege, “but suspicion alone is not sufficient to arrest, detain, charge and indict respondents,” the prosecutors said.
Military spokesman Brigadier General Restituto Padilla said the military respects the prosecutors’ decision but that security officials still believe the men could “perhaps be eventually deployed to Marawi.”
The ruling shows that the rule of law continues to work under martial law that was declared in the south by President Rodrigo Duterte to deal with the Marawi crisis, said Padilla, adding that the men were treated well and would be flown back to the south on an air force plane.
The 59 were taken into custody in southern Zamboanga city and Ipil town on July 25 amid Intelligence reports that Muslim terrorists would attempt to reinforce the gunmen who attacked Marawi and were being bombarded by military airstrikes and ground assaults.
A lone witness said the mostly young Muslim men were to be given combat training and then deployed to reinforce the beleaguered terrorists, who were holding out in buildings and mosques in Marawi.
The arrested men strongly denied the allegation, saying they were recruited by a man who promised to bring them to a rebel camp for combat training and then help them be integrated into the military and police under a peace deal with the Government.
Ong said he and the other prosecutors did not find the witness credible.
During a hearing at the Department of Justice on July 28, some of the arrested men, guarded by heavily armed police commandos, told reporters they were poor and jobless and in search of work and a better life.
The violence in Marawi, a centre of Islamic faith in South Phillippines, has left nearly 800 people dead, including more than 600 terrorists, and sparked concerns that ISIS terrorists were gaining a foothold in Southeast Asia by helping influence and arm local terrorists.
An estimated 40 gunmen remain in Marawi and are continuing to fight as troops advance in previously scenic lakeside communities that are now a smoldering wasteland of disfigured buildings. AP