Both Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif face the challenge of establishing peace in the face of provocations
Google Maps informs us that the Pathankot airfield covers an area of approximately 5.25 sqkms. Simple mathematics suggests that its periphery or diameter is around 10km and will require a battalion of infantry, if an incursion were to be prevented an impractical proposition given that Pathankot itself has may more vital areas that need protection as well, with availability of troops solely dependent on the credibility of intelligence inputs. This problem confronts every defender as the initiative to choose the time and place for an assault always rests with the attacker.
Thus, suggestions that lapses may have led to the perimeter being breached is nonsense, though there may well be some errors in the initial response, especially the complications in command and control caused by bringing in the National Security Guard, which is neither trained nor equipped to protect assets but is a specialist force for intervention and hostage rescue.
That, despite the advantages that the terrorists had, just as in Gurdaspur (Dinanagar), six months ago, they failed in their primary mission to destroy air assets and create mayhem and instead ended up neutralised, the security elements protecting this base must be commended for their professionalism and quick response. Sadly, success was achieved at some cost, as seven soldiers were martyred and several others wounded.
The scope and intensity of the earlier attack in Gurdaspur, to which this attack bears resemblance, gave some indication that while some rogue elements of the Pakistani establishment may have been involved, it was not approved by the political or military leadership at the highest levels. Not another Mumbai 26/11, so to say. This present attack only further confirms this view.
Speculations about locations in Pathankot being the likely target were already in the public domain since the news of the former SP (Headquarters) Gurdaspur having been ‘abducted’ and subsequently ‘released’ early Friday morning by five terrorists in Army fatigues. The inability of the terrorists to either modify their plan or change their target, despite a well-publicised security alert, suggests that they and their handlers lacked the requisite resources, training and professional capabilities that is the hallmark of any state sponsored covert operation.
Despite this, the Narendra Modi Government will come under pressure to once again pull back from the ongoing peace process. That Prime Minister Modi and the BJP set such a precedent while in Opposition, constrains them from acting any differently, especially if Mr Nawaz Sharif is unable to offer anything more than platitudes. Moreover, this is unlikely to be the only such incident that we will be confronted with over the coming year, especially if the peace process continues unhindered. Instead of forcing Mr Modi’s hand, it is time for the Pakistani establishment to walk the talk and show that it is genuinely interested in action.
Instead of hiding behind the fig leaf that these are non-state actors over whom his regime has little control, Mr Sharif has the unique opportunity of changing the narrative by arresting and deporting Masood Azhar to India for crimes committed earlier. Masood is the founder of Jaish-e-Mohammed, which is suspected of committing the present outrage, and was in an Indian jail before being released in an exchange during the IC814 hijack fiasco. Without such concrete action, it would be difficult for the peace process to gain the momentum required. However, if Mr Sharif did initiate some action against those responsible for the outrage, then Mr Modi, who is certainly not among the usual run of politicians, would find his hands strengthened and could redouble his efforts to break the chains that hold back India-Pakistan détente.
Both sides need to remember that the young, who are becoming the dominant demographic group, have little time or interest in debilitating history. They would support any initiative that gives them an opportunity to break out of the shackles of intolerance, poverty and lack of opportunity. let us hope leaders on both sides have the wisdom and maturity to fulfill these expectations.
(The author is a military veteran and consultant with Observer Research Foundation)