By electing a Governor who wants to downsize the US military in Okinawa, voters have sent a clear message to Washington and Tokyo, write KV KESAVAN and VM CHOTANI
last month’s gubernatorial race in Okinawa, Japan, has, understandably, received little international attention but it can impact the US-Japan security alliance, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe himself. In the November 16 election, former Naha Mayor Takeshi Onaga defeated incumbent Hirokazu Nakaima. Mr Onaga’s victory brings relief to Okinawans on the issue of the relocation of the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma base, within the Prefecture, from Ginowan city to Henoko district. This is a substantial step forward for the locals who have been struggling with the issue since World War II.
Okinawa, the poorest Prefecture of Japan, is home to 74 per cent of all US bases in Japan, albeit holding only 0.6 per cent of the country’s land mass. Over the years, the bases have burdened the local population with issues of civilian safety, environmental degradation, and the storage of large volumes of chemical weapons. Rapes, helicopter crashes, and crimes form the yolk of all conversation among Okinawans.
Furthermore, these bases account for a mere five per cent of the local economy. In fact, they often hinder economic success by obstructing city planning such as construction of railroads, placement of water tanks, and the location of schools. Prostitution is also a major concern. In 1996, Tokyo and Washington, DC, agreed to relocate the dangerous MCAS Futenma base and transfer 8,000 marines from Okinawa to US-controlled Guam. But two decades of flip flop politics have ensured that not a single marine has been transferred off the Island, and the MCAS Futenma base has still not been relocated.
The locals are painfully aware of the Tokyo’s discrimination. Japan regained its sovereignty from the US in 1952 but Okinawans became sovereign 20 years later in 1972. Mr Onaga’s victory comes at a time when Okinawans are more determined than ever to change the political climate that has overshadowed them post World War II.
For Prime Minster Abe, this is a bitter blow. His party has taken pride in its firm leadership and claims to have resolved the Futenma-Henoko issue. In December 2013, Mr Abe pressured the then Okinawa Governor to sign the landfill papers required for the construction of the new base in Henoko. In return, he pledged 300 billion yen for every fiscal year, until 2021.
Now, Mr Onaga’s win threatens the Tokyo’s plans. Moreover, it comes at a time when the Prime Minister has called for a snap election — on December 14. This leaves the Abe Government with two options — first, pledge more aid and money to the new Governor, or second, overrule the locally-elected officials and risk charges of authoritarianism that could severely damage Mr Abe’s reputation.
Politics at the southern end of the Island chain are looking up. Mr Onaga, upon assuming office in early December, has pledged to close MCAS Futenma; establish a special commission that would investigate the processes that enabled his predecessor to approve landfill work at the Henoko site; and open a special Okinawa Prefecture office in Washington to facilitate dialogue on alternatives to the Henoko project.
The last move should enable more positive results than those produced in the last two decades. Okinawa’s frustration has increased over the years as the Central Government in Tokyo, not the Okinawan Prefectural Government, negotiates directly with Washington. Therefore the establishment of this prefectural office in Washington will enable the flow of dialogue that may sensitise Washington to the issues at hand.
Tokyo must also acknowledge that Mr Onaga’s decisive victory was because Okinawan voters were angry with Tokyo, not only for repeatedly failing to protect their interests in Washington, but also being unwillingness to treat geographic fringe regions in line with the mainland.
If Tokyo continues to project this kind of political, economic, and security discrimination, it will create a rift between mainland Japan and local Okinawans. Also, Washington must take the initiative to relocate American military bases outside the island. It should recognise that WWII is over, and that the ‘keystone of the Pacific’, isn’t the only viable location to maintain its military might in the Asia Pacific.
(KV Kesavan is a Distinguished Fellow, and VM Chotani, a research intern, at the Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)