Political parties in Uttar Pradesh fail to realise that voter perception has changed from politics of religion to politics of development
Who gained and who lost in the recent confrontation on the Ayodhya temple issue between the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Samajwadi PartyIJ The VHP’s renewed push to build a temple at the disputed Ram Janmabhoomi/Babri Masjid site may ultimately not only polarise the Hindutva votes, but also pave the way for communal politics in Uttar Pradesh benefitting the SP and the BJP.
With a singular lack of ideas, the VHP supported by the Sangh Parivar, including the BJP, attempted to launch an 84-Kosi parikrama yatra in Ayodhya on August 25, which was to have continued till September 13, passing through communally-sensitive areas of Faizabad, Barabanki, Gonda, Ambedkar Nagar, Basti and Bahraich. Thanks to the Akhilesh Yadav Government’s strong handling, the yatra fizzled out even before it took off. It was not only the people of Uttar Pradesh but also the sants in the temple who cold-shouldered the attempt. The sants who were to join the yatra from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and other places had not even started their journey.
This communal politics directly affects the SP, BJP, Congress and the BSP — the major players in Uttar Pradesh politics. Both the BJP and the SP should realise that 2013 is anything but 1992. Things have changed, perceptions have changed, new voters have come into existence and people have moved on.
While the BJP is looking for Hindu votes, the other three are vying for the 18 per cent Muslim votes. To achieve this goal all is fair in the electoral battle. It is rumoured that the BJP and the SP have arrived at a pact, labelled ‘match fixing’, by the Congress. The BJP has targeted to get at least 60 seats from both Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, while the SP is aiming to capture a large portion of the votes with minority support. The State Government did not use brute force and handled the affair prudently. The Government made extraordinary security arrangements making sure that the people did not venture out. The VHP too avoided any confrontation.
From the Parivar’s side it was a low-key drama with many of its leaders courting arrest, going thus far and no further. There were no fiery speeches and the VHP merely stoked the fire. Perhaps this was an agreed political fight to remain relevant in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere. Perhaps both the BJP and SP do not want major clashes, which would dent their image in the eyes of voters.
The BJP’s new election campaign chief Narendra Modi might have supported the temple issue as he is keen to win maximum number of seats from Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 poll. The opposition to the yatra will no doubt, mobilise the Hindu voters and bolster support for Mr Modi.
On the one hand while Mr Modi talks of his Gujarat model of development, on the other he doesn’t shy from proclaiming that he is a Hindu nationalist. He hopes that this opposition to the yatra will translate into more votes for the BJP. In 2009, the Congress had got 21 seats and the BJP 10 in Uttar Pradesh. Mr Modi hopes to reverse this trend.
The ruling SP is afraid of losing its Muslim votes to the Congress, which is planning to make the poor governance in Uttar Pradesh as its poll plank. The SP’s move was quick and calculated to polarise the Mulsims in favour of it and to even boost Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav’s national dreams. The SP chief knows that the more the BJP and the Parivar accuse him of being communal, the better it is for the consolidation of his vote-bank. At the same time, he sent out a message that the Uttar Pradesh Government only wanted to maintain communal harmony and is not against the Hindus. His speech in Parliament defending that he was only implementing the Supreme Court order was eloquent. If this gamble pays off, then SP would be the gainer.
The Congress is worried about maintaining its 2009 tally of 21, which was a big boost to the party. This was largely because the Muslim voters, disenchanted with the SP, had turned towards the Congress. The Congress is simply watching the developments keeping its fingers crossed that the BJP and SP’s game plan would fail.
The BSP, which was hoping that the Akhilesh Yadav Government would bungle in the handling of the yatra so that the Muslim votes would come to it, is a tad disappointed, though it feels that all Muslim votes may not go to the SP this time. It has not stopped hoping, given that it won 20 per cent of the Muslim votes in the 2012 election despite losing power.