A huge surge in popular support and fractured vote-banks of the Congress, NC and PDP, bode well for the BJP
Few Kashmir-watchers had ever expected that the BJP's first ever ‘sincere’ move to promote mainstream politics in the troubled valley, by creating a constituency for the party on the basis of its inclusive ideology and programme, would evoke a positive response from Kashmiri Muslims. But this is what happened when the BJP launched its Mission 44+ in Srinagar, much to the surprise of communal and divisive forces who have always kept Kashmiri Muslims away from New Delhi, by beguiling and frightening them, for personal gains. The BJP, which won all the three lok Sabha seats in Jammu and ladakh and polled the highest ever number of votes (32.4 per cent) in the general election, adopted Mission 44+, for the upcoming Assembly election in Jammu & Kashmir, at the party’s Bhadrwah (Jammu) meet on June 15 and launched the programme in Jammu on June 23. The date was symbolic as, on this day 61 years ago, Syama Prasad Mookerjee had sacrificed his life in Kashmir so as to bring the State closer to India.
On July 20, hundreds of prominent Kashmiri Muslims joined the BJP and the party held an impressive meeting at the Sher-e-Kashmir Municipal Park in the heart of Srinagar city. Since the conclusion of the lok Sabha election, this was the first ever public meeting held by a mainstream political party in this park, otherwise known as a venue for anti-India activities. During the meeting, the entire Janata Dal (United) leadership in the State merged with the BJP. Also, a number of Congress and National Conference activists quit their respective parties, which have been preaching a regressive and intolerant ideology, to join the BJP. They pledged unstinted support to the BJP and resolved to neutralise the baneful influence of sub-regional parties like the NC and the People's Democratic Party. They committed themselves to promoting a popular democracy in the valley. The meeting could be construed as a major political development in Kashmir.
One of the more prominent Kashmiri activists to join the BJP on July 20 was Ms Hina Bhatt, daughter of former NC MlA Mohammad Shafi Bhatt. While explaining her decision to join the party, she said, “The poor governance of the present (NC-Congress) Government and other regional parties in the State forced me to join the BJP. I know the consequences of joining the BJP, but the decision came after carefully weighing the Modi Government's approach towards the State. People who are against me now will support me for the decision in future. We know what the mainstream parties (in this case the NC, the PDP and the Congress), which are headed by Muslims, have given to the State. It might be possible that a non-Muslim party rescue this State”.
All this happened in Kashmir on the day that the comprehensively defeated and demoralised Congress leadership candidly refused a pre-poll alliance with the NC, and declared that the party would field candidates in all 87 Assembly constituencies. The wounded and crest-fallen NC working president and State Chief Minister Omar Abdullah ridiculed the Congress's declaration, saying that the NC had dumped the Congress 10 days ago when he met party president Sonia Gandhi. Mr Abdullah, whose party, like the Congress, also suffered an ignominious defeat in the lok Sabha election, has been working hard for more than 18 months to forge a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, but the local Congress leadership upset his applecart. In between, Mr Abdullah had said several times said if the PDP was to be kept out of the corridors of power, a pre-poll alliance with the Congress was imperative.
The Congress-NC decision to contest the Assembly election separately is a blessing for the BJP. It bolsters the party’s prospects, particularly in Jammu and ladakh, which sends 41 MlAs to the 87-member legislative Assembly. The three-way split of the NC-Congress-PDP vote share will surely help the BJP secure more than 35 seats in Jammu and ladakh, and also improve its electoral chances in Kashmir. This is because the constituency of the three parties in Jammu, Kashmir and ladhakh is the same. Also, it bears recalling that he BJP had led in more than 30 Assembly segments in Jammu province in the 1998 and 1999 general election, when the PDP didn't exist, and the BJP had little or no presence in trans-Himalayan ladakh.
As for Kashmir, there are five social groups which can tilt towards the BJP — the Kashmiri Hindus, the Gujjars and the Bakerwals, the Pathowari-speaking Muslims, Kashmiri Shiite Muslims and the Sikhs. Together, these groups constitute nearly 40 per cent of the valley's population. They are extremely unhappy with the Kashmiri ruling elite. They, like the people of Jammu and ladakh, are not considered part and parcel of the polity.
The BJP can win a minimum of 10 seats in Kashmir if it cultivates these groups. Reports suggest that the BJP’s election strategists are working in this direction. An increasing number of Kashmiri Muslims, including some former top police officers and bureaucrats, professionals and educated youth, are eager to join the BJP. This augurs well for the future of the State and the nation as a whole.
(The writer is former Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Jammu)