Once Kathmandu resolves tensions at home by being more inclusive, India-Nepal relations will improve alongside
After the five month old ‘undeclared trade blockade’ between India and Nepal was lifted, India rolled out the red carpet for Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. As confessed by Mr Oli, his six-day state visit to India was for ‘mending ties’ that had been at an all-time low in recent history, following the promulgation of a Constitution that was not well received by Nepal’s Madhesis, tribal communities and women.
The new Constitution failed to offer an equitable territorial and citizenry arrangement, leading Nepal towards a humanitarian crisis as the Madhes movement prolonged itself and transit trade was disturbed. The situation was aggravated due to Kathmandu’s unwillingness to reach out to the Terai, which furthered Madhesi and Tharu alienation.
Thankfully, after Mr Oli took some action through constitutional amendments, and was then welcomed in New Delhi, he did not lose the opportunity to get back into India’s good books. Hopefully, he read the moments carefully, and did not take India’s softer stance as an ‘endorsement’ of the partially amended Constitution. Sooner than later, he should ensure wider ownership of Nepal’s political and democratic process through a reformed Constitution.
India, on its part, should recognise the Constitution but without endorsing it till the possibilities of major changes are streamlined. For now, it should pursue a dialogue with Nepal and underline the danger of unilateralism adopted for political mechanisms and the adverse fallout if the grievances of the marginalised sections are not met in the next round of constitutional amendments. The finer elements of India-Nepal bilateral relations will play on positively, only after Nepal sets its house in order by ending the internal causes of turbulence.
Mr Oli displayed some signs of pragmatism by visiting India first, a tradition followed by Nepalese Prime Ministers. This is going to help in further normalisation of trade and transit.
His visit has been crucial not for adding to the trade volume but for the sake of damage control.
While the mood is changing for the good in the political establishment, it will be naïve to think that the deep angst and alienation of the Madhesi people have been resolved. The Terai movement has become weaker, with lifting of the blockade — which, of course, could not have continued indefinitely. But the people of Terai are still dissatisfied with the measures that Kathmandu is forwarding as a ‘set of solutions’. Until these people get the feeling of entitlement from the Constitution, any show of euphoria will be misplaced. The anger can blow up anytime.
The twist in India’s stand came following huge pressure from various quarters on rising anti-India sentiment in Nepal’s hilly regions. Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj has thus opted to ‘welcome’ the two amendments made to the Constitution of Nepal, which will supposedly give nearly 80 seats out of 165 to the Terai region. The other concerns, which are equally haunting the prospects of a ‘normal Nepal’, should be dealt with carefully and while keeping the agitating Madhesi front in the loop.
Mr Oli’s state visit to India coincided with Nepal’s 66th Democracy Day. Hence, it is worth recalling that democracy was not served on a platter to the Nepalese people. Sacrifices have been made to strengthen democracy in the Himalayan nation. Yet, true democracy is still a dream for the Nepalese polity — for securing an inclusive agenda of development.
Some show of statesmanship is essential from the political leaders of Nepal. They should know the merit of keeping things simple, and in working state — once their house is in order, they will be better positioned to deal with the neighbours. In interacting with India for now, the Oli Government should abstain from minimalist approach. Instead, it must get all that India promised in the wake of massive earthquake last year.
To stay at a safe position in history, Mr Oli should make inclusion an important part of the national agenda so as to help Nepal become a formidable entity in regional politics. More than participate in official events, he needs to do his homework properly. Time is short and Mr Oli needs to do a lot more than what he has been doing all along.