Unless the BJP and the Congress together get less than half of 542 lok Sabha seats, there can be no third force
Is there scope for a third force againIJ It is nearly two decades since a ‘Third Front’ Government ruled India. However this idea is resurrected before every general election. The re-grouping of political forces has already begun. Both the UPA and the NDA have shrunk, and they are looking for partners. The likelihood of a Third Front Government in 2014 cannot be ruled out, if there is a hung Parliament.
However, if such a formation is indeed forced upon India, there could be a bid for power by the regional leaders. The basis for this appears to be that the ruling UPA has been substantially weakened by a series of corruption scams and political scandals, while NDA is remains fragmented. Hence the two fronts face the threat of a third force, but any such grouping will have to be based on common policies and programmes. This is where the problem arises.
The recent success of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi has proved that there is a space for a ‘third force’. The voters are disenchanted with both the Congress and the BJP. Encouraged by its success, the AAP is planning to go national and contest on at least 350 lok Sabha seats. The Congress and the BJP are nervous of this new development and are reworking their electoral strategies.
With the splintering of political parties, a majority of them are reluctant to join hands with the NDA, fearing backlash from the minority communities. Aligning with the already weakened UPA will not bring them any power. The UPA is facing double anti-incumbency and also an image crisis, while a growing number of regional parties are optimistic of their performances in the next parliamentary election.
Consequently, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has recently attempted to form a third alternative. Mr Kumar has prime ministerial ambitions and secular credentials. He has his own Bihar model of development to sell to the electorate. But leaving the NDA has weakened his party. There are predictions that his party may not do as well as expected because of the upper castes sticking to the BJP. The Congress-RJD-lJP combination is also said to be formidable. Mr Kumar wants to join Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav who is on a slippery ground in Uttar Pradesh after the Muzaffarnagar riots. The idea is to bring back the Janata Dal led by VP Singh, which consisted of the present JD(U), the JD(S), and the BJD. But the two other parties — the RJD and the lJP — are now out of this group, as they have already aligned with the Congress in Bihar. It is all for a planned post-poll alliance, should each of the constituents get a good number of seats. While the Samajwadi Party and the JD(S) are formally supporting it, the JD(U) is doing it tacitly. The left parties are the cementing force for this front.
Mr Kumar is only taking forward the idea mooted last October when 14 parties came together on a ‘secular platform’ as a first step. The 2013 gathering in Delhi brought together diverse parties like the JD(U), the Samajwadi Party, the AIADMK, the BJD, the NCP, the JD(S), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) and the Asom Gana Parishad.
This brings us to the question: Whether this new effort will succeed in the present political scenarioIJ Not all non-Congress, non-BJP parties can come together, as some parties cannot co-exist with others. For instance, the Trinamool Congress will not come with the left, while the DMK and the AIADMK cannot go together. The SP and the BSP also cannot be in the same front.
With more splintering of the polity, unless the BJP and the Congress together get less than the half of 542 lok Sabha seats there can be no third force. It also depends on the BJP getting less than 150 to 160 seats. There is likely to be a big ego clash among these regional satraps who lord over their own fiefdom. When each leader is bidding for 7, Race Course Road, how they agree to one person leading themIJ
It is often said that these parties with a socialist base can never remain together for long, and also never remain separate for long. Perhaps, Mr Kumar and Mr Yadav are attempting to come together once again. One can only wish them well.