For 15 years, the Congress-NCP combine has ruled Maharashtra. But it’s unlikely that it will beat the anti-incumbency wave this time
By retaining Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan, the Congress has confirmed once again that it is a status quo party. Only a few days ago, Haryana Chief Minister BS Hooda was also spared the axe. Both Maharashtra and Haryana are going to the polls in the next few months.
It is nobody’s case that changing Chief Ministers just a few months before election can improve electoral outcomes, but the Congress has also to take note of the rebellion within and outside the party. The only relief here is that the uncertainty about the Chief Ministers has ended. Congress rebels and NCP leaders who had serious reservations about Mr Chavan are now expected to work with him.
Will theyIJ
There was a sustained campaign after the lok Sabha poll to change the Chief Ministers but the Congress leadership is not willing to change horses at the last mile. The rebels were arguing that under Mr Chavan’s lacklustre leadership the Congress will not be able to come back to power in Maharashtra. A section within the Congress was working for change in the leadership.
Interestingly, the NCP, which is a coalition partner of the Congress, also has been seeking a change. If anyone expected that the two parties would work well at the grassroots level, it has not happened. On the contrary, NCP chief Sharad Pawar does not want Mr Chavan to lead the campaign and prefers former Union Minister for Home Affairs Sushilkumar Shinde.
The NCP has also emerged as the stronger of the two parties in the lok Sabha poll. So, it wants a 50-50 seat sharing in the Assembly election. Mr Pawar had held several meetings with Congress leaders and was even offered to lead the combine in the poll, which he had turned it down.
The Congress-NCP combine, which has been in power for the past 15 years, is now bidding for power for the fourth time. However, the mood of the people is pro-change. Therefore, anti-incumbency is staring both parties in their face and they are aware of the difficulties in coming back to power. The recent reservation gimmick for the Marathas and Muslims in the State is likely to boomerang on the Congress-NCP. Issues like drought, poor economy, farmers’ suicides and staggering cooperative sector do not draw a happy picture.
The two parties came together in 1999 after Mr Pawar floated the NCP and won an impressive number of seats. Despite ups and downs, the two parties have managed to remain together for 15 years and the speculation is that they may continue to do so. If at all any separation occurs, it may only happen after the poll, as Mr Pawar is slowly moving towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
On the other hand, the Shiv Sena-BJP combine, which is leading the Opposition, is also not in its best shape, as there are differences that are emerging. The Shiv Sena has already declared its chief Uddhav Thackeray as its chief ministerial candidate. The old cordial relationship between its founder Bal Thackeray and the BJP’s lK Advani or Atal Bihari Vajpayee is not there anymore.
The BJP is in an upbeat mood after its spectacular success in the lok Sabha poll and wants a 50-50 seat sharing with the Shiv Sena in the Assembly election. It is important for the party to maintain the lok Sabha momentum. But the BJP is handicapped for not having any charismatic chief ministerial candidate in Maharashtra after the untimely death of Gopinath Munde.
The Shiv Sena has a different problem. It is facing trouble from the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by Mr Raj Thackeray who has declared himself as his party’s chief ministerial candidate. He had also declared support to the BJP before the lok Sabha election. However, the MNS came a cropper in the lok Sabha poll. At the most might, it may get a few Assembly seats in pockets where it has some influence.
On the whole, in the emerging poll scenario, in the two alliances, the NCP and the BJP may have an upper hand. The hype for seat sharing and threats will continue until the last minute but the Congress-NCP combine is riding on a lower side of the roller-coaster.