The BJP’s top honchos are confident that the “upper caste vote” is theirs for the asking and should assure it a good harvest of seats in the event of Nitish walking out of the alliance. This smugness suits the wily Nitish, as he knows he has already reduced the saffronites of Bihar to a signboard
All eyes are now on Nitish Kumar and his next wily move. Will he be play footsie with the Congress or would he stay on with the NDA just in case the BJP decides to replace the man it has just named as its Bonaparte for 2014 with a more “secular” figureIJ Or, would he explore the possibilities of creating a separate political bloc along with his counterparts in West Bengal and Odisha who together make up not less than 100 lok Sabha seatsIJ Another option which he might explore is to go it alone in the 2014 election and then play kingmaker in Delhi based on his “Bihar special status” game plan.
The last option might help secure a long stay in power in Patna by projecting the Bihar messiah image. But it may be an ambition inconsistent with the ground reality. If the Janata Dal (United) and BJP, allies for about 17 years in Bihar politics split up, the two might find themselves boxed within their respective vote banks leaving enough field for the RJD, lJP and others to grow again.
There are several explanations filling space and time in media over the million dollar question — what awaits the NDA partners should the question of “secularism” lead to their split ahead of the 2014 election.
BJP’s fix
let’s take as a given that the split has happened and only a formal announcement is awaited. On the morning after, the BJP would find itself seriously worrying where it’s going to find the seats in Bihar without the JD(U)’s support.
There seems to be a degree of smugness in the BJP camp that its prospects would not be affected by Nitish’s departure from the NDA. There is reportedly an “internal analysis” making the rounds that the “upper castes” are solidly behind the BJP. But the reality is vastly different. The BJP could not have got this support in 2009 and 2010 without Nitish’s backing. The Nitish magic had drawn to the alliance the cumulative votes of the extremely backward castes, the lower middle castes and the backward minorities. In the aggregate, the BJP got a whopping 39 percent of the state’s vote share. The JD(U) on its own had got 22.61 per cent while the BJP had got 16.46 per cent.
likewise, the JD(U) should also beware that minus the BJP it stands to lose at least some of the so-called upper caste votes. Equally, a large section of the forwards may continue to be loyal to Nitish Kumar for fear of the return of lalu Prasad Yadav and his “jungle raj” in the state. During his seven years of chief ministership, Nitish Kumar has been carefully nursing the Bhumihars by apportioning plum bureaucratic positions to their bright boys in the bureaucracy. The Bhumihars are considered a politically aggressive caste which influences poll choices in a critical way. His frank wooing of this segment earned him the epithet “Nitish for Bhusashan” for “Bhumihars rule under Nitish.”
So, in case of both the parties contest the poll separately Nitish Kumar may have the last laugh with his social engineering paying off. But, the BJP had contested only 102 of the 243 seats in 2010 and had got 16.46 per cent. Unlike other parties the voteshare of the BJP has been constant at 13-15 per cent in the last decade. Besides, the upper castes are mainly concentrated in the Mithila, Kosi and Magadh regions, notably the districts of Patna, Bhagalpur, Gaya, Aurangabad, Darbhanga, Madhubani, Samastipur and Gopalganj. These political constituencies have been BJP strongholds for some time and it may be difficult for Nitish Kumar to make an impact there.
Muslim votes
Nitish Kumar knows well that there is no such thing as “The” Muslim vote. He had never got all of them and so a minor swing in the vote pattern might prove very dangerous for him. The anti Narendra Modi vote on which Nitish Kumar is apparently banking would be quite split up between the RJD-lJP and Congress. And, between themselves, the RJD-lJP and Congress count for about 34 per cent of the voteshare — just 4-5 per cent short of what the NDA allies got in 2010.
The BJP is a divided house in Bihar. One distinct camp is led by party leader and deputy chief minister Shushil Kumar Modi. The other is the “Narendra Modi group” which resents the “other Modi” for his perceived “flattery” of Nitish. Many in Bihar believe that over the past seven years Shushil Modi has done more harm than good to the BJP. He is accused of surrendering the heart and soul of the BJP to Nitish for the sake of keeping himself in the number two position.
The fractious state of affairs in the BJP has suited Nitish fine all these years. He had played the “Bihari Modi” successfully against NaMo. If Nitish ditches the NDA he might go for the kill, winning most of the 40 states from Bihar thereby putting himself in the king maker’s seat in Delhi. On the other hand, as a NDA partner he can hope to get at best 20 of the 25 seats allotted to JD(U).
It’s hard to encounter these days a point of view contradicting the certainty of Nitish ditching the NDA — unless of course it unequivocally declares NaMo would is not its prime ministerial candidate. This “will-he-won’t-he” situation will prevail as long as NaMo keeps his options open.
Amarnath Tewari | Independent journalist, Patna