Vladimir Putin, the current Russian President, has made obviously more headlines than the much-talked about celebration of the 100th year of the historic October Revolution last month across the globe, including its homeland. His date with Kremlin in a very unusual style for more than one-and-a-half decade has set his persona as no less than a charismatic leader. His Russia has an edge over many powerful nations of Asia and Europe. At a time when Europe is encountering the fall of the great European unity (mostly from within, the last being Catalonian crisis in Spain), Russia is quietly demonstrating its stability under Putin. Precisely, Russia today is capable of bringing back its imperial glory to millions of young people who are offering support to Putin. Therefore, his Russia is fast creating a sense of stability and strength for a long period than the turbulent days of Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin of the 1990s.
When the centenary of the Revolution came this October, what the whole world witnessed was more of a celebration of Putin’s achievements in power since 1999 than anything else. Indeed official silence on the Revolution speaks volumes about the wariness of the country’s ruling elite, especially about President Putin. Though a few public exhibitions displayed the greatness of the two revolutions — one in February which overthrew the imperial Government and second in October which brought the Bolsheviks to power under the legendary leadership of Vladimir lenin — yet the current official narrative truly ignored the spirit behind the Revolution in all spheres of political system. This is all because of the fact that today’s political elite, mostly the ex-KGB men, their close family relatives and cronies in the industry have actually grabbed each and every opportunities across the country. And clearly all of them want the new Tsar to continue so as to exploit the system in their favour. Hence Russia cannot expect any Revolution to emerge in the present political, social and economic environment of the country. Neither is it engaged in any war-like situation as it was in the peak days of 1917. Besides, the energy, the enthusiasm and particularly the revolutionary fervour spread by a tall figure in Russian society is truly lacking.
Many political and strategic commentators on Russia opine that today the Russian elite are far more consolidated around Putin than they were once around Tsar Nicholas II. It is all evident that the way Putin has modelled and wielded power through the organs of the State resembles more of a Tsar of the yesteryears than any grand politiburo chief of the former USSR.
The litany of horrors brought forth by Putin is indicating the re-emergence of a Tsarist rule in its most modern form in Russia. First of all, he has sent hundreds of spies around the world, especially to Britain, than there were during the Cold War. He has carried out vendettas outside Russia in the same way it was done in the heydays of the USSR, but in a more sophisticated manner to convey to the rest of the world that a new emperor is back. His Government is believed to have murdered many activists, journalists and Opposition leaders in the recent past. In fact, it has been creating more tension and terror since he has assumed office.
Putin was rediscovered as a super hero by the Russians when for the first time he came in public in the wake of the war in Chechnya in 1999. When the bombing of the apartments took place in Moscow and some other cities in that very year, the blame was passed on to dreaded Chechen rebels. And Putin appeared as no other than a saviour to the helpless Russians who were desperately looking for a strong leader who could bring back their confidence and put back the country as a great power on the global stage. Putin took full advantage of this situation and promised his countrymen a better future for the first time since the coming of the post-Soviet era. This all worked like a magic as those were the last few days of the ailing and dying President Yeltsin.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was regarded as the first unilateral land grab in Europe since 1945 and it really shocked the whole world, particularly the NATO allies in and around the former USSR. The Russian military, which has so far assumed a new role, had gone to intervene in Donbas region of Ukraine, took aggressive positions both in Chechnya and Georgia and finally entered the battleground in Syria to save one of Russia’s old allies. Since Russia’s entry into West Asia, the geopolitics of the region has taken entirely a different turn. Putin has acted like a life jacket for the embattled Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who was almost on the verge of losing his power. This has above all given him a status not less than the country’s most ruthless ruler, Stalin, who was known for brutally executing his agenda.
Surely, Putin needs to be taken seriously by the leaders in the West. The western observers and policymakers have misread him simply as a strategist. He is working more like a Tsar and consolidating power in every possible way. The supporters of Opposition leader Alexei Navalny echoed slogans across St Petersburg this October, “Down with the Tsar”. The authoritative book titled Mr Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, written by Fiona Hill and Clifford G Gaddy in 2015, clearly cautions the Western leaders in this manner: “First, many in the West underestimated Putin’s willingness to fight, for as long and as hard (as dirty) as he needs to achieve his goals. Vladimir Putin will use all methods available and he will be ruthless. Second, Western observers misread his skill as a strategist. Putin is not, as some have said, a mere tactician. He thinks strategically and he has great advantages over the Western leaders in his ability to translate that thinking into action.”
Both the authors were absolutely right and the whole world can witness how he has worked and turned situations in his favour to project himself as Hobson’s choice in Russia. But then what has helped him to rise beyond the rank of a very stereotypical KGB man to the status of one of the most powerful rulers of RussiaIJ
Putin knows very well that his country does not have the industrial and economic might to sustain a long drawn war against the West. Still, Russia is beefing up its armed forces and keeping its forces on a war gear for some time now. It’s bringing a new identity to one of the world’s largest forces. But today, Russia’s position is less secure than that during the 1980s. It was a time when the USSR could no longer hold back its East European allies and the socialist satellite nations around the world for its dying economy. What Putin is fighting for is self respect of his country. He wants to invoke history to regain the control of the old Russian Empire. It is no other than the fear of being encircled by either NATO or other Western countries as many of the former Russian republics have already moved into the closet of the West.
Putin is a fighter and a survivalist. Though his United Russia Party has been described as a collection of “crooks and thugs” by Navalny, it rules and does what makes him stronger in every possible way. Just two days before Yeltsin handing over power to Putin in December 29, 1999, in a manifesto titled “Russia on the Threshold of the New Millennium”, Putin formally declared the supremacy of the “Gosudarstvo”. This word refers to an extension of the Tsar as the final source of order and authority. It seems he has sent a clear signal to the people of Russia and to the world what he exactly aspired to do.
In subsequent years, he has been able to display unity with his people like any other Tsar in the past. He is truly wedded to the Russian people and no one can dare to stand between the people and his persona. He has established this thread through the State-sponsored media houses and has always tried to project himself not as an ambitious politician, but only as an honest slave of the masses like any other Russian monarch. He smartly justifies Kremlin’s monopoly over politics and the rising economy by evoking Tsarist rule of the past. He does it beautifully by calling upon cultural stereotypes of the past Russian society. This is working fantastically for now, but then no one knows what kind a dangerous vacuum Putin will create once he retires from formal politics. However, Tsarist legitimacy cannot be passed on to the next generation. This will indirectly question the very presence of the larger than life image of Putin. This increased preponderance of power in the corridors of Kremlin will lead to an unmanageable situation for the Russians who might see another breakdown much worse than the chaos of the 1990s.
Whatsoever it may be, Russia’s meandering across the “Putin agenda” will not help the country stabilise in future. Russia would probably be unwieldy once he exits from the political scene. The reasons are not far to seek. He is even not allowing his own party to project someone as his successor. Because once it is done, the myth around him will be no more there. He has been projected by the State, his cronies and the official media as the only legitimate power centre which can effectively rule the country. Hence an Opposition party or a strong leader, emerging to challenge him at any time would be similar to dethroning him from the Kremlin.
Today, a strong voice like that of Navalny, who is on his way to challenge Putin in the next year’s presidential poll, will probably change the political landscape of the country. But by now, Kremlin has branded him as a violent ultra-nationalist and at times as a pro-American liberal. Further, the Russian state has declared him ineligible to run for the presidential election next year as he is convicted in a case related to embezzlement in 2013. But he is contesting any way even if Moscow uses all types of terror tactics (both mental and physical). And for sure, Putin will employ all his KGB-style methods to deal with Navalny. How fearful Putin is about the presence of him can be observed very well in some recent instances: On October 2, a few days after Navalny’s tour to the country’s Far East region, he and his campaign chief were jailed for 20 days. It was an attempt by the Kremlin to stop him from staging a huge rally in St Petersburg, the hometown of the President on the very birthday of Putin. Unfortunately, thousands marched without Navalny and raised prominent slogans such as “Russia without Putin” by painting their faces with both the Russian flags and a large “N”. What does all this meanIJ
The reordering of Russia by Putin may not herald a new era to this land symbolised by rich history, culture and traditions. There could have been an alternative or a different way to make Russia great again. The new oligarchs who are jostling for power, profit and position may not even support Putin when he falls. They are a new brand of opportunists who are ashamed of identifying themselves with the ethos of the October Revolution. Bringing home a modern state in such a situation wherein hardly there is any chance for an Opposition and social activism growing, the new generation of the Russians may have to think of a silent revolution so as to secure their future. let us wait and watch who brings this ‘Nadezhda’, (the Russian word for hope).
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)