The popular BJP leader has taken the Capital by storm. But, it remains to be seen if he can sustain the allure
The media has all but crowned Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as the NDA’s prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 lok Sabha poll. Mr Modi too did not hide his ambitions and, virtually declared himself as ‘the candidate’, at the BJP National Council meet in the capital last weekend.
The meeting was a Modi show all the way. But if people had expected the BJP to announce its prime ministerial candidate, they were in for disappointment. This could be because there is a process of arriving at a name, and that has not yet begun.
There will be three-tier consultations — within the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and with members of the NDA, before the final choice is made. The fact is that even the first-tier consultation has not yet begun. While the other aspirants are keeping quiet now, they may not remain so at the time of decision-making, as each of the half-a-dozen aspirants at the top is a candidate.
Mr Modi, known as a loner, has not endeared himself to his colleagues. Veteran BJP leader lK Advani can never be written off and his influence will continue — as was evidenced in the case of Mr Nitin Gadkari’s exit as BJP president. The party would also consider the pros and cons of fielding Mr Modi as the prime ministerial candidate along with his post-Godhra baggage.
The second and more important tier is the RSS. The parent body has been particularly unhappy with Mr Modi for making the RSS shut shop in Gujarat. The parent body still wields control over the BJP, hence, Mr Modi will have to make up with Nagpur to get support.
As for partners in the NDA, the Janata Dal (United) has a problem with Mr Modi and will quit the alliance if he is the BJP’s choice. The Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal may support him but they are numerically weaker than the JD(U). Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray is suspicious of Mr Modi hobnobbing with his cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray.
The BJP has no single-point command. The days of Atal Bihari Vajpayee are long over, and regional allies have become stronger, aspiring to take centre-stage.
Even if the BJP decides on a gamble and risks the break-up of the NDA, it may not get more than 180 seats, in the best case scenario, if Mr Modi is the choice. Where will it get another 100 seats to bid for powerIJ Mr Modi’s attempt to rebrand himself at the National Council meeting may have succeeded with the BJP’s delegates, but he has much more to do to lure members of the NDA .
However, the single-point in Mr Modi’s favour is the huge support from the party rank and file. As some senior BJP leaders admitted, they had no option but to showcase him at the National Council meeting — convened mainly to endorse party chief Rajnath Singh’s election as president, but which turned out to be a Modi show. The BJP president himself led others in showering praise on Mr Modi for his hat-trick in winning the State Assembly poll and urged the meeting to give him a standing ovation. But the attitude of the senior BJP leaders sitting in the front row at the meeting told a different story. Their faces showed no enthusiasm matching that of the delegates. At least half-a-dozen of them are aspirants. Why would they cheer for Mr ModiIJ
The speeches at the meeting too showed the differences. Mr Advani likened the Gujarat Chief Minister to the other successful BJP Chief Ministers, strengthening the speculation that Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh too could stake a claim if they win their States for the third time in the ensuing Assembly elections. This is exactly what Mr Modi wants to avoid and, therefore, is in a hurry to take the centre-stage.
A good schemer, he is working to a plan. He has no financial constraints to project himself as the doer. This was the second time he made his presence felt in the capital in recent times after his successful address at the Shri Ram College of Commerce soon after winning in Gujarat for the third time. He was the hero at the National Council meeting.
Mr Modi’s visit has left behind endless drawing-room debates and a political churning. He has begun well with his media blitz but may have erred in launching his campaign for his elevation too soon. It has to be seen whether he can sustain it over the next 14 months.