Regime change in both Pakistan and China has brought forth leaders who are publicly pro-India. While New Delhi should welcome them, it cannot ignore the contentious issues that plague bilateral relations with those countries
The lame duck, semi-paralysed regime led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has already had discussions with the new Premier of China and quite possibly will also be engaging the Government recently elected to power in Pakistan. The discussions take place against the backdrop of New Delhi’s difficult bilateral relations with the two countries, which is sure to have a direct impact on the strategic concerns of India.
let us start with Pakistan: It is a fact that in his previous tenures as Prime Minister, Mr Nawaz Sharif, who will now once again be at the helm in Islamabad, had engaged the Indian leadership in positive dialogue. His lahore summit of 1999 especially was a big step towards a meaningful resolution of bilateral conflicts, even though not much progress could be made because Mr Sharif was overthrown by his Army chief.
However, it is also a fact that even this time around, Mr Sharif has campaigned in favour of friendly relations with India. Now, his statements will be put to test. But the Prime Minister-elect may not have a free hand in the making of his foreign policy towards New Delhi because the Pakistani Army, the Taliban and other jihadi groups remain entrenched within the power structure of Pakistan — and they are avowedly anti-India.
Now, let’s move to China: That country’s new political leadership, led by President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister li Keqiang, has already made clear that its relationship with New Delhi will not merely be bilateral in scope but also look at South and East Asia as a whole. Of course, the border dispute between these two countries will have to be discussed, negotiated and resolved. But there is a larger picture that both New Delhi and Beijing will have to consider.
The Chinese Premier’s decision to make India the first stop on his maiden foreign trip, followed by Pakistan, is a clear indication that Beijing takes both countries seriously. Of course, much like Mr Sharif who has talked of extending a hand of friendship towards India, the Chinese Premier has also made many positive statements about India-China ties.
However, these are all in the realm of diplomatic niceties which convey nothing as far as the hard issues of national interest are concerned. For instance, the Chinese Premier has said that Pakistan is still very much an ally.
But again, the larger picture should be kept in mind. In the existing multi-polar world order, China wants to be counted as one of the great powers. Already an economic and military powerhouse, it is determined not to play second fiddle, particularly to the US, the self-appointed policeman of the world. In fact, the US should be prepared to face more of Chinese ‘veto-power’ on the global arena — as it has had to grapple with in recent times. Traditionally, the Americans have always had the upper hand in West Asia but on the matters of Iran and Syria, they now find themselves on tenterhooks as neither China nor Russia are prepared to follow in their footsteps.
This is a new and powerful China at work, for which India is both an important partner and a competitor particularly in Asia. Here, India is following its look East policy in trying to strengthen ties with Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. In the process, it is coming in conflict with China which is also seeking to increase its footprint in the region.
Also, China is competing against the American dollar and pushing its own currency as an instrument of international trade and exchange — yet another reason why the Asia Pacific is set to enter a new stage of competition in international relations.