Pakistan goes to the polls today but few in India understand its historic importance. Even fewer notice that “Kashmir” and India-baiting did not figure in the manifestos of any of the key contestants. The reasonIJ Hysterical TV anchors who can’t see beyond Sarabjit
let us hope that the election results in Pakistan having a stable civilian government. It is difficult to predict with certitude: whether the new leader would be Nawaz Sharif or would the “fall” help Imran Khan to “rise”IJ It is also in the long term interest of India that a stable civilian government gets in power in Pakistan.
India’s experience with President Asif Ali Zardari and his government has definitely not been pleasing. Issues related to the Mumbai terror attacks (26/11) has been a major bone of contention and for all these years Pakistan has been extremely sloppy towards taking India’s concerns to a logical conclusion. But, at the same time what is important to note is that even while grumbling both the powers succeeded in keeping the dialogue process alive. The breakthrough in trade relations and liberalisation of the visa regime could be counted as the major achievements in the bilateral track.
The murder of Indian prisoner Sarabjit Singh in Pakistan jail has raised the tempers in India once again.. Presently in India almost everyone has a definitive take on Pakistan’s approach. However, it is important to appreciate that we still have to keep the channels of dialogue open in the larger interest of peace in the region. Particularly with the likely emerge of new power equation in Pakistan India needs to take a fresh guard for a peace initiative.
It is important to appreciate that foreign policy is not about throwing tantrums, taking rigid positions or harbouring a bloated sense of prestige in oneself. It is about coercion and confidence building. What is important is clarity of aim and the means to achieve this. Flexibility should be the reigning attitude and one should always recall the thumb rule — all’s fair in love, war and diplomacy!
Presently, Pakistan is undergoing extremely turbulent times in its history because of the threat from the Taliban. During the entire process of the election campaign almost every single day saw some political rally getting attacked and quite a few deaths resulted. Both the Pakistani civil administration and the army are convinced that the most important threat for them is internal and not from India. For all these years it appeared that most Pakistani political parties were using the Kashmir card to garner votes but not anymore. The Kashmir issue was not the part of the present election campaign. In fact peace with India has been the message by various political parties in the fray. There are concerns that wrong polices could lead to arms race in South Asia. Also, there appears to be the willingness to invest into trade and energy (routing from Central Asia to India).
Even though people like Nawaz Sharif have made noises to the effect that the army would not be allowed to dominate, it would be too naive to believe that army would not have any control on the political system. But, at the same time, if any stable government comes to power then it is likely that army would prefer to remain in the background. Sharif is keen to resume the implementation of the lahore Declaration of 1999 that committed Pakistan and India to the pursuit of “durable peace” through the settlement of the Kashmir issue. While Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is keen to continue liberalising trade with India and resolve “all outstanding issues,” including Kashmir. Imran Khan’s party is also keen to have progressive ties with India.
All these parties are aware of the nuclear realities in the region and are keen to avoid any escalation. At present it appears that Pakistan has realised the value of peace. Also, it is too preoccupied to address the internal threats from terrorism. They also know that to get power more than the India card it is important to flag the development and security card. This offers an opportunity for India to start a fresh initiative.
Unfortunately, pragmatic decision making is fast becoming difficult in India today. Apart from the current regional geopolitical challenges the foreign policy decision making process also needs to cater for various domestic challenges. Since the time of the Indo-US nuclear deal (2005) it appears that after independence for the first time a situation has arisen in the country where there are serious differences of opinion amongst various political parties in regards to foreign policy. Because of the challenges of coalition governments, thin political mandate, issues associated with federalism, myopic political
positions, challenges thrown by social media and few NGOs with vested interests are making it difficult to have a sensible debate on foreign policy. In addition, television media has taken a self driven (read TRP driven) responsibility to ‘educate’ people and hence instead of giving ‘news’ they are providing ‘views’. For any dialog process to begin India also need to factor in all such internal challenges.
Over the years there has been a perception with some in India that it is easier to deal with the military deception in Pakistan than the civilian administration. However, since the present civilian administration has remained in power in Pakistan for a full term for the first time there is some hope for the future. It is important to appreciate that lasting peace would only occur only when two democracies cooperate.
Ajey lele | Research Fellow, IDSA