Notwithstanding the efforts of TV studio experts to spin the Bihar Assembly election result as a loss for the BJP, the fact is that the saffron party single-handedly secured the largest vote share and registered the highest vote gain
It is amusing to see the desperation of the BJP’s political adversaries, passing sweeping judgements on the Union Government after the Bihar Assembly Election result. We understand and empathise that the latter only get a few opportunities to criticise the BJP and, thus, this extreme anxiety.
A few so-called TV studio experts have termed this Bihar Assembly result a “massive defeat for the BJP” and started dreaming of Mr Nitish Kumar as the central pole of Indian politics. These blanket remarks were obviously passed without objectively analysing the election result. Mr Nitish Kumar and lalu Prasad deserve to be congratulated for getting their electoral arithmetic right and retaining the Chief Minister’s chair as well as the ripe mangos at the Anne Marg residence.
So, will it be correct to say that Mr Nitish Kumar has become Chief Minister again because the maximum number of Biharis have voted for himIJ No, because the surprising reality is that the maximum number of Biharis voted for the BJP in this election.
The BJP emerged as the single largest party in terms of vote share, polling around 25 per cent votes, which is about one crore voters. This is a gain of more than eight per cent over the last Assembly election. Psephology textbooks term anything over a five per cent vote share as a ‘landslide’; an increase of eight per cent votes over the last Assembly election is much more than a landslide.
lalu Prasad and Mr Nitish Kumar are way behind in terms of vote share, polling around 18 per cent and 16 per cent respectively. In fact, Mr Nitish Kumar and his Janata Dal (United) have drastically lost about 40 per cent of their seats. After the last Assembly election, they held 115 seats. Now, they have 71 seats. That the supposedly humble, tolerant and convicted persona of lalu Prasad has ended up with more seats and votes than Mr Nitish Kumar indicates the rejection of ‘Nitish model of development in Bihar’, which is admired by many so-called experts.
The BJP humbly accepts the mandate given by the people of Bihar, and congratulates lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar and Co. However, none can say that the mandate is against the BJP, which has the largest vote share. Further, Mr Nitish Kumar, who has been termed as the “hero of election”, has suffered the maximum loss of seats. The numbers show it is unfair to term this as “massive defeat for the BJP”. So-called experts trying to berate the BJP and announcing the party’s rejection by the voters based on these results are incorrect. Such experts, sitting in TV studios, counting each and every factor against the BJP, and trying to run down the party, will only mislead the audience.
The Congress’s attempt to make the Bihar poll seem like a referendum on the Union Government is equally amusing. Evidence from any State election will show that the regional issues and local factors dominate in these cases. The people are realistic about these things when they vote. Still, it’s noteworthy that after the 2014 lok Sabha victory, the BJP has won in many States including Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra and Haryana.
For the Congress and the UPA, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was a liability and a reluctant campaigner. For the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the most popular leader in the country, a big asset and a huge vote catcher. Of course, he has a positive impact on the BJP campaign.
If the BJP has emerged as the party with the largest vote share and highest vote gain in Bihar, it is due to the leadership and charisma of Mr Modi. Additionally, party president Amit Shah and senior Union Cabinet Ministers who campaigned with full vigour and energy, ably supported by Bihar State leaders, need to be acknowledged and appreciated.
lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar and Co. may have won the election but the BJP has not been defeated as a large number of Biharis reposed their faith in the party.
(The writer is a senior advocate practising in the Supreme Court, and a spokesperson for the BJP)