The Government should step in to control the sliding confidence of the farmers. It must begin by concentrating on climate change adaptation strategies to safeguard food production and ward off threat to the agriculture sector
Agriculture, the mainstay of the Indian economy, is facing numerous issues including environmental challenges. As climatic conditions deteriorate, agricultural productivity is the first casualty and accompanying social factors are accentuating the problem. The Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change assessment report establishes the state of environment in India and South Asia as a whole. It also projects the impact of such events on agriculture, especially in India.
The predictions of the report highlight an increase in the number of monsoon break days and a decline in the number of monsoon depressions. This is combined with the likelihood of floods and droughts due to a decline in seasonal rainfall, coupled with an increase in extreme precipitation during monsoon.
The disturbing feature of the IPCC report is the increase in tropical cyclone related rainfall due to greenhouse warming especially in the coastal areas. This has been proved correct, as the recent cyclone — Hudhud had made it’s landfall on the eastern coast and wrecked havoc by taking a toll on agricultural holdings, besides districts with poor infrastructure. The extreme weather events coupled with the changing weather conditions and increased emissions of long-lived green house gases have been instrumental in reducing crop yields. For instance the monsoon Sorghum grain yield in India may go down by 2-14 per cent by 2020, with worsening yields by 2050 and 2080.
There could also be downward alterations in rice and wheat yields in the Indo-Gangetic plains with rising temperatures. This cannot be a good news for the farmers as the Indo-Gangetic plains are by far the most fertile agricultural regions in India and the most populous as well.
Degraded environmental conditions pose a serious challenge to the agricultural sector and the future looks grim with the climate change scenario for 2030 indicating an overall warming for all the regions across India. The projected net increase in annual temperatures in 2030 as compared to 1970 is expected to be 2.2 degree Celsius, and extreme temperatures are expected to increase by one to four degree celsius, with maximum increase expected in the coastal regions. Given this scenario, the future food production is highly vulnerable to both climate change and air pollution with implications for country’s food security.
The looming agrarian crisis spurred by adverse climate conditions has also broken the farming community’s confidence. A recent survey of 5,000 farm households across 18 States conducted by Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, says that 76 per cent farmers would prefer to do some work rather than farming due to repeated crop losses attributed to unseasonal rains, drought and floods.
Crop losses coupled with credit repayment failures have unfortunately paved way for farmers to commit suicides. National Crime Records Bureau records show that at least 2,70,940 Indian farmers have committed suicide since 1995. This occurred at an annual average of 14,462 in six years, from 1995 to 2000 and at a yearly average of 16,743 in 11 years between 2001 and 2011. That is around 46 farmer suicides each day, on an average, or nearly one every half-hour since 2001.
This is an alarming situation and it is critical that the Government steps in to control the sliding confidence of the farmers. As a first step, equitable distribution of benefits of Government schemes and policies is important. Currently these benefits are mostly accruing to big farmers having land holding of 10 acres (4.05 hectare) and above whereas only 10 per cent of poor and small farmers with average land holding of one to four acres (0.4 to 1.6 ha) have benefited from Government schemes and subsidies. This disparity needs to be addressed by the Government.
In order to meet these challenges, the Government must begin by concentrating on climate change adaptation strategies to safeguard food production and ward off threat to the agriculture sector.
An important aspect to be taken care of is to assess the impact of ozone depletion on agricultural productivity. The Government must commission studies to understand the role played by climate change in combination with depleting levels of ozone as degrading ozone levels increase global warming which in turn have an impact on agricultural productivity. The Government must also improve support facilities provided to the agricultural sector so that the farmers are able to leverage latest technical know how and expertise in order to cope with changing environmental conditions without compromising on crop productivity and yield.