Will the Aam Aadmi Party's success be the beginning of a new opposition unityIJ The Budget Session will give an indication
The rise and rise of the Aam Aadmi Party has brought out a new phenomenon, and the people are now willing to give a chance to any viable alternative. It is also the success of the volunteer model, where the party was steered by young volunteers.
Delhi serves as a classic example of what can come in the coming days if the political parties do not know how to connect with the people and meet the aspirations of the aam aadmi. The vote for the AAP was not only a positive vote but also a vote for change and a vote against the tried and tested national parties. It proved that the Arvind Kejriwal phenomenon has overtaken the Narendra Modi phenomenon in the capital, nine months after the latter’s victory in 2014.
NCP leader Sharad Pawar was right to talk about the opposition space. There was a time when it was thought that the country was heading towards a two-party politics, and then perhaps two fronts led by the UPA and the NDA. The 130-year old Congress, which was a force to reckon with in the capital till the 2013 Assembly poll, has now ended up as a cropper.
The continuing slide of the grand old party since 2014 elections where it ended with an all time low of 44 seats in the subsequent Assembly elections in Jharkhand, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir and Maharashtra shows the leadership crisis in the party and also the fact that its dynastic politics has not brought any benefit.
While there is no doubt that the Delhi poll result will have a far reaching impact on the rest of the country and the Assembly polls scheduled over the next two or three years, the real question is about the space for opposition.
Mr Kejriwal’s unprecedented scale of victory in Delhi has given a new ray of hope to the opposition parties that the BJP is beatable. He has tried to occupy the opposition space, but only in Delhi, as his party does not have much role in other States except perhaps in Punjab, from where it got four lok Sabha seats.
Even if the AAP can replicate its success, it will take a very long time to establish itself as a national party. The party learned the lessons in the 2014 poll when it spread its butter thin and contested over 400 seats, losing deposit in most.
This brings us to the question what kind of opposition will emerge in the coming days. Do the political parties read the signal from the Delhi poll resultsIJ The AAP has captured power once again on the promise of changing the political culture.
It has also taught a lesson to secular parties. As the AAP did not indulge in minority appeasement, will the other parties fall in line and change themselvesIJ Will they identify with the common man and behave like oneIJ
Also, how will the Congress re-invent itselfIJ It has lost its base. The Dalits and Muslims have shifted to the AAP. While the Congress is wiped out in many States like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Odisha, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, there is a need for introspection and soul-searching and make course corrections.
AAP’s victory also proves that keeping the opposition votes intact helps. The regional satraps have put their weight behind the AAP in the Delhi election. As a BJD leader puts it, the opposition thought that Bihar JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar would be the one to halt the Modi juggernaut, but Mr Kejriwal has done it.
The question is: Will the opposition parties come together on a single-point agenda of challenging the BJP and Prime Minister ModiIJ The first signal could come in the ensuing civic body election in West Bengal, followed by the Bihar Assembly election and then elections to West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and other States.
Finally, for a start, the Opposition can show a united face in the coming Bihar election. Bihar is crucial for the BJP and the Janata parivar. In Bihar, the JD (U) and the RJD, the Congress and the left parties could come together to ensure that the anti-Modi votes do not get split. A similar opposition-coalition politics can help in other States also, which are going to polls.
Will the Aam Aadmi Party’s success be the beginning of a new opposition unityIJ The ensuing Budget Session of Parliament will be the first opportunity for the opposition parties to be responsible and challenge the Modi Government on issues rather than stall the House. A healthy democracy needs healthy debate of issues and there are plenty of issues on the table.